Few people pay attention to interest rates and its impact on hiring. The last hiring boom was on the back of a hot economy that the Fed was desperately trying to slow down by raising rates. Those raises have a lag of 6-12 months or more. At the time, 2022-23, labour was a key driver of inflation, which meant job cuts across industries were expected to reduce inflation. The last 12 months have seen an increase in the unemployment rate to 4,1 percent today. Fed had been tightening until July 2023 and held rates steady since. This means the labour market we're seen today is a result of Fed action in mid 2022 to mid 2023, which we saw as the winding down of the hiring boom. The effects of those hikes will continue until 2025 and early 26. Remove other company specific factors that are affecting their operations, and its obvious that 24-25 and possibly early 26 will be incredibly difficult and very competitive for job seekers. The Fed could cut rates too quickly and overheat the economy and the hiring could tick up as a result, if combined with clearing of company specific problems (aircraft deliveries, engine parts, etc) in coming months.
