Commercial Pilot Career is a sinking ship.

Firebird2XC said:
With UAVs on the rise in a number of areas, how long until they affect us?
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NextGen will end the pilot career as we now know it. The unknown is how long will it take to deploy and implement.... 10 years? 20 years? 30 years? I'm guessing 20 years but history has shown technology disruption occurs very quickly and is followed by a relative long period of refinement.
 
seaav8tor said:
NextGen will end the pilot career as we now know it. The unknown is how long will it take to deploy and implement.... 10 years? 20 years? 30 years? I'm guessing 20 years but history has shown technology disruption occurs very quickly and is followed by a relative long period of refinement.
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I am not that familiar with next gen, so forgive me, but how exactly will it kill the profession? My understanding was that it was just going to allow for greater traffic flow through reduced separation. Can the technology being used for that allow a plane to fly itself somehow?
 
The primary foundation of our ATC system that overrides everything else is the responsibility of the pilot to "see an avoid". With the exception of this one very big problem, civil side use can go nowhere.

NextGen ATC removes this obstacle. When that happens the commercial pilot world as we now know it will quickly and forever change. It will make all the issues we currently face (furloughs, bankruptcies, age 60, mergers, seniority, economy, pay, work rules, QOL, etc) seem like trivial, insignificant bumps of a past golden era.
 
Doug Taylor said:
You mean he "Don Ed Hardy" variety that the folks with the extra-long pointy shoes, girl jeans and "Icy Hott Stunna" sunglasses wear? :)
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skinnyjeans.jpg
 
seaav8tor said:
The primary foundation of our ATC system that overrides everything else is the responsibility of the pilot to "see an avoid". With the exception of this one very big problem, civil side use can go nowhere.

NextGen ATC removes this obstacle. When that happens the commercial pilot world as we now know it will quickly and forever change. It will make all the issues we currently face (furloughs, bankruptcies, age 60, mergers, seniority, economy, pay, work rules, QOL, etc) seem like trivial, insignificant bumps of a past golden era.
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Yep yep yep!
 
In the OP I pointed out the tremendous loss of flying by the mainlines to the regionals. It creates a somber view for someone just now trying to get on the first rung of the ladder if they recognize the ladder could very well be too short to reach the top. Many have pointed out "Hey I don't want an Airline job", ok, well I thought this was the Jet Careers board. In any case, my thought is don't "go for it" unless you will be happy if you get stuck at a regional. With regional pay, work rules, etc. Looks like even that might be questionable as jobs there may have topped out.

http://m.industry.bnet.com/travel/10006322/regional-airlines-try-different-strategies-to-survive/
 
This may be the "jet careers" board, but I have no desire to hit the big time 121 world. I'm merely a private pilot and I come here because there is a ton of knowledge about all different types of flying. Some of those other types include jets, so maybe, just maybe I am in the right place .
 
seaav8tor said:
In the OP I pointed out the tremendous loss of flying by the mainlines to the regionals. It creates a somber view for someone just now trying to get on the first rung of the ladder if they recognize the ladder could very well be too short to reach the top. Many have pointed out "Hey I don't want an Airline job", ok, well I thought this was the Jet Careers board. In any case, my thought is don't "go for it" unless you will be happy if you get stuck at a regional. With regional pay, work rules, etc. Looks like even that might be questionable as jobs there may have topped out.

http://m.industry.bnet.com/travel/10006322/regional-airlines-try-different-strategies-to-survive/
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You haven't been paying very good attention to the rest of the sub-forums here have you? And FYI, most of the regular posters don't fly for airlines. I'd guess about half are 121 and the rest are 91/135. And it is possible to have a "jet career" and not be in the 121 side of things.

Just sayin.
 
Matt13C said:
I am not that familiar with next gen, so forgive me, but how exactly will it kill the profession? My understanding was that it was just going to allow for greater traffic flow through reduced separation. Can the technology being used for that allow a plane to fly itself somehow?
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Yes, take a look at Terminator 2 for the details...
 
Firebird2XC said:
I remember thinking the other day that this industry is evolving.

With UAVs on the rise in a number of areas, how long until they affect us?

I envision pipeline patrol and traffic watch becoming a product of something like this eventually. UAVs would be perfect for that sort of thing, given their endurance, etc.

Back in the day folks said the railroad would never outshine the horse. I'm fairly certain a few folks said that sort of thing about the automobile.
Even so, those things are still around in different roles.
Maybe the 'golden era' where pilots were adventurous folk heroes or celebrities is gone, but I foresee there being some sort of career application for pilots for a long, long time to come.
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I do see where you are going with this. I think there are differences between cars/trains and planes concerning automation. The big thing is that cars can break down and just pull over to see what is wrong, with an airplane it is much more difficult. There are automated trains all over the place, and if they have issues, well they just sit until a technician can come and fix them. It will be a while until fully automated airplanes come online for passenger use. If they had any kind of malfunction that could pose some real problems.

Maybe they could have an automated plane with ground support (human backup on the ground could take control like having a UAV pilot, or possibly they could single-pilot most aircraft with the extra automation on board. But as you said, it will be a long time before there are no pilots onboard a pax aircraft.
 
Callador said:
I do see where you are going with this. I think there are differences between cars/trains and planes concerning automation. The big thing is that cars can break down and just pull over to see what is wrong, with an airplane it is much more difficult. There are automated trains all over the place, and if they have issues, well they just sit until a technician can come and fix them. It will be a while until fully automated airplanes come online for passenger use. If they had any kind of malfunction that could pose some real problems.

Maybe they could have an automated plane with ground support (human backup on the ground could take control like having a UAV pilot, or possibly they could single-pilot most aircraft with the extra automation on board. But as you said, it will be a long time before there are no pilots onboard a pax aircraft.
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The only problem is I believe we are not too far from a point where a plane could be automated enough where only one pilot would be needed. The same thing happened with trains as that technology developed, the older freight trains still have multiple conductors but the newer, more automated rails only need one conductor. That alone would almost cut the demand for pilots in half.
 
Pilotsjs89 said:
The only problem is I believe we are not too far from a point where a plane could be automated enough where only one pilot would be needed. The same thing happened with trains as that technology developed, the older freight trains still have multiple conductors but the newer, more automated rails only need one conductor. That alone would almost cut the demand for pilots in half.
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I think your terminology is a little whack. Conductors deal with pax. There are still several of them per train (unless you're carrying freight). "Engineer" is the word you're looking for.
 
Callador said:
I do see where you are going with this. I think there are differences between cars/trains and planes concerning automation. The big thing is that cars can break down and just pull over to see what is wrong, with an airplane it is much more difficult. There are automated trains all over the place, and if they have issues, well they just sit until a technician can come and fix them. It will be a while until fully automated airplanes come online for passenger use. If they had any kind of malfunction that could pose some real problems.

Maybe they could have an automated plane with ground support (human backup on the ground could take control like having a UAV pilot, or possibly they could single-pilot most aircraft with the extra automation on board. But as you said, it will be a long time before there are no pilots onboard a pax aircraft.
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Agreed. Any time anybody asks me when I think airplanes will be completely automated I respond "the day that we have computers smart enough to land an A320 on the Hudson River after a complete power loss." It will be a long time before AI develops to the point of creative decision making, which is necessary in aviation given the endless ever-changing variables present on each flight.

I think that we will see automated cars before we see automated aircraft and we are still a long way off from automated cars.
 
chuckles1225 said:
Agreed. Any time anybody asks me when I think airplanes will be completely automated I respond "the day that we have computers smart enough to land an A320 on the Hudson River after a complete power loss." It will be a long time before AI develops to the point of creative decision making, which is necessary in aviation given the endless ever-changing variables present on each flight.

I think that we will see automated cars before we see automated aircraft and we are still a long way off from automated cars.
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I'd have to agree, and well said.
 
chuckles1225 said:
Agreed. Any time anybody asks me when I think airplanes will be completely automated I respond "the day that we have computers smart enough to land an A320 on the Hudson River after a complete power loss." It will be a long time before AI develops to the point of creative decision making, which is necessary in aviation given the endless ever-changing variables present on each flight.

I think that we will see automated cars before we see automated aircraft and we are still a long way off from automated cars.
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Yeah, I can see the first automated pilot system will be made by microsoft. This is what the pax will see on the view screen.

SQL runtime error 148XF676RW... have a nice day! :)

The problem with computers right now is that they have errors all the time. Most OS's of one kind or another lock up or need to be rebooted every so often, you also get the "close program, send error report". Servers are always having problems... this would not be condusive to pax flights. Computers have become much more sophisticated since things like the commodore 64, but even the fanciest computers have errors (quite frequently). I do see technology helping pilots, and have others have mentioned, maybe only putting 1 pilot in the cockpit. But remember, that will be in the newest airplanes, not every company will get those right away. I even see Connies and DC3's still going!
 
Callador said:
The problem with computers right now is that they have errors all the time.
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There are way more computers controlling devices and operating them more efficiently than the public eye can see. Comparing a computer that would operate an airplane to a pc operating system is like apples to oranges.
 
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