I've gotta back PCL_128 100% on this one. What people are missing is it's not really a pay raise. Those guys will be making the same pay for two years rather than just one. IMO, that's not a raise, really. A raise would mean everyone across the board gets a bump. Let the "throw the first year guys under the bus" arguement ensue.
This is an indication of something big: that supply and demand of the guys willing to work for crap wages is beginning to tip. The supply is running low, and the wages are getting close to having to come up to attract people back into the field. We can argue all day as to why that is, but that's not the point. The fact is management's supply of first year FOs is running thin, even with rock bottom hiring mins.
Now, the union can do one of two things: they can green light the first year FO issue and reset it so the supply is back in again, thus negating ANY positives for those not on first year pay, which would be a majority of the seniority list. So, should the union do something that wouldn't benefit most of the members just so those that haven't attained an FO position get more money? I don't think so. I'd rather them use the leverage they have (ie the thinning supply of pilots) to get an across the board raise to attract qualified applicants. Too many people just look at first year FO, but what good is it raising the first year pay when you've lost a shot at negotiating a higher wage in the left seat in the meantime? Sure you got more money first year, but you sacrificed more money later on to get it. So, was anything REALLY gained for anyone other than management?