CEO predictions for the next 5-100yrs

I-Pilot

Well-Known Member
Here are some of their predictions. From your personal experience, what do you think is going to happen? The reduction of 50-seat aircraft has started. I guess the regionals with hundreds of 50-seat aircraft will shrink.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ceo-predictions-next-100-years-153137997.html

IN FIVE YEARS:

— Richard Anderson, CEO Delta Air Lines: "Just over a decade ago airlines seemed to be buying every 50-seat aircraft they could get their hands on. But the real utility of those small jets has come and gone and in the next five years we'll see their numbers in the U.S. continue to dwindle."

— Gary Kelly, CEO Southwest Airlines: "We'll have fewer airlines, but they will be bigger, stronger and healthier."

— Maurice J. Gallagher, Jr., CEO Allegiant Travel Co.: "The next five years will be all about increasing automation and decreasing labor cost. The industry is already implementing mobile boarding passes, bag drops, even self-boarding. These processes will become more prevalent and significantly reduce the number of employees the customer needs to interact with."

IN 25 YEARS:

— David Barger, CEO JetBlue Airways: "The freedom to travel between any two points in the world will be commonplace. There will be billions of travelers every year flying on new aircraft that will be environmentally friendly; in fact, they will be making zero-carbon travel maybe even a reality."

— Mark Dunkerley, CEO Hawaiian Airlines: "Many of today's consumers will be priced out of the air: a sad legacy to 30 years of massive progress in democratizing air travel. Failure to invest in aviation infrastructure and the insatiable appetite for regulation will not be offset by relatively modest further improvements in aircraft efficiency."

— James Hogan, CEO Etihad Airways: "A new generation of airlines, who have the vision and willingness to be different, will succeed in cutting costs, improving productivity and finding affordable ways of accessing new markets. The emerging markets — the Middle East, Africa, Southeast Asia — will become established markets and Abu Dhabi will be one of the uniting global hubs."

— Sir Richard Branson, president Virgin Atlantic Airways: "I have no doubt that during my lifetime we will be able to fly from London to Sydney in under two hours, with minimal environmental impact. The awe-inspiring views of our beautiful planet below and zero-gravity passenger fun will bring a whole new meaning to in-flight entertainment."

— Jeff Smisek, CEO United Airlines: "The airframe and engine manufacturers continue to develop aircraft that are more fuel-efficient, have lower maintenance costs and have greater range and utility. Longer term, I believe manufacturers will explore engine and airframe technology that could significantly reduce travel times, but advances in this area would have to be safe and economical to make a real impact on our industry."

IN 100 YEARS:

— David Siegel, CEO Frontier Airlines: "The first flight was just 18 miles long, but now look how far we can go. Perhaps in the future, experts will be designing futuristic propulsion systems. We could see innovations in aircraft design, local community-based air transport with smaller, higher efficiency aircraft, and maybe even pilotless commercial aircraft."

— Doug Parker, CEO American Airlines: "I am quite certain that Tony Jannus never could have imagined the size and importance of commercial aviation today, or the impact it had on changing our world. Similarly, I cannot imagine what commercial aviation will look like in 2114. I imagine whatever state it is, though, it will be extremely important and its continued development will be a key part of the story that built that world."

— Ben Baldanza, CEO Spirit Airlines: "Google's 'put me there' technology implemented into its maps software renders all airlines obsolete."
 
Speaking of Tony Jannus - we just recreated his first ever commercial flight today in St. Pete/Tampa.
 
My prediction? Some pedestrian management-reshuffling is trumpeted as a "game-changer". People lose their jobs. Profits increase on paper. Various companies seek government protection. Dumbasses from Peoria get their retirement wiped out. Scumbags in NY buy a new Ferrari, all the while congratulating themselves on how smart they are for winning at a game that can't be lost. Followed by: The nation of cattle elect another Democan who promises to "fix the problems" whilst stuffing his/her pockets with stolen labor and pursuing the "regrettable" policy of blowing up brown people who are sitting on OUR oil in the rest of the world. Sympathies all around. Rinse, wash, repeat.

You won't lose any money betting with me!
 
— Mark Dunkerley, CEO Hawaiian Airlines: "Many of today's consumers will be priced out of the air: a sad legacy to 30 years of massive progress in democratizing air travel. Failure to invest in aviation infrastructure and the insatiable appetite for regulation will not be offset by relatively modest further improvements in aircraft efficiency."

I think he really hit the nail on the head with this one. Prices will have to go up... They can only stay as low as they have been for so long.
 
I think he really hit the nail on the head with this one. Prices will have to go up... They can only stay as low as they have been for so long.

He was also the only one that wasn't overly optimistic about the future.
 
My prediction? Some pedestrian management-reshuffling is trumpeted as a "game-changer". People lose their jobs. Profits increase on paper. Various companies seek government protection. Dumbasses from Peoria get their retirement wiped out. Scumbags in NY buy a new Ferrari, all the while congratulating themselves on how smart they are for winning at a game that can't be lost. Followed by: The nation of cattle elect another Democan who promises to "fix the problems" whilst stuffing his/her pockets with stolen labor and pursuing the "regrettable" policy of blowing up brown people who are sitting on OUR oil in the rest of the world. Sympathies all around. Rinse, wash, repeat.

You won't lose any money betting with me!
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I think he really hit the nail on the head with this one. Prices will have to go up... They can only stay as low as they have been for so long.

He was also the only one that wasn't overly optimistic about the future.

Won't less travelers/higher fares lead to the need for less planes/frequency, which will lead to less demand for new pilots. Which means less hiring. Which will lead to fewer mainline good paying jobs. Which may lead to furlowing? Which was how it was back in the regulated days when only the rich could afford to fly. And there were a crap ton few mainline jobs than there are now with De-regulation.
 
Won't less travelers/higher fares lead to the need for less planes/frequency, which will lead to less demand for new pilots. Which means less hiring. Which will lead to fewer mainline good paying jobs. Which may lead to furlowing? Which was how it was back in the regulated days when only the rich could afford to fly. And there were a crap ton few mainline jobs than there are now with De-regulation.

I wouldn't go quite that far, but I do think there will be lower income house holds that will be priced out of traveling by air. How long will air fares competing for $300-$400 round trip tickets be sustainable as operating cost increase? Of course the answer to some airlines is to contract regional airline flying to the lowest bidder, but as many have said resoundingly everywhere around these forums, how low will they go before they are unable to hire enough pilots, or the regionals simply can't cut any more corners?

What I find incredible, is mainline carriers with no regional flying (read: small jets with crew paid less than mainline airlines) that manage to compete with the regional models, such as Southwest, JetBlue, Virgin, or Spirit. I'm starting to see more and more that Southwest is not the cheapest airline for tickets... Airlines can only cut so many corners before they have to come to reality that they can't stay affordable to every single Joe Schmoe in North America.
 
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Predictions from CEOs who have run great company to the ground for the sake of a golden parachute, poor decision making, greed... When I started flying in the early 90's all you wanted to do is be in the US . Now it's the very least place where I would like to be flying for a living. There are so many other places to fly where you can make a good living, being respected, still having perks and retire safely.
 
I think he really hit the nail on the head with this one. Prices will have to go up... They can only stay as low as they have been for so long.


This is no different than air travel in the 1970's. Most people didn't fly because it was not affordable. We also didn't have airlines with 500 and 600 fleets of aircraft like today. Many international carriers didn't have fleets that size in the past or today.
 
Well, in the 70's and 80's we flew because it was entirely too far to drive, impossible to do so (Hawaii), you had time constraints and it was seen as somewhat of a luxury. It was a special event.

Today, flying is seen as a public right to be able to fly from LAX to MCO with six kids, two better fly free and I want to bring a minivan full of crap.

Every holiday season, there's always some schlub on television saying "Welp, it's cheaper than driving" as they're standing in line at Sky Harbor enroute to Los Angeles.

Whoah, we're going to have two professional pilots, three professional flight attendants, a $60,000,000 jet and we're going to do it "cheaper" than you driving yourself in a beat up 1989 Chevrolet Lumina?

I don't see "cheap" air travel as an inalienable American right.
 
Personal experience is a poor leaven to broader reality. Still, I flew a fair amount as a young buck in the 1968-1972 timeframe. It seemed neither expensive nor exclusive.

My history includes individual travel from Boston to Fort Wayne (United) to visit the grandparents, a handful of trips on Northeast to Portland, Executive Airlines from Boston to the Cape, and two weekends of "no reservations fly system wide" on Mohawk. And once O'Hare to Fort Wayne via South Bend on UAL.

Apart from BOS-FWA, vi CLE, the trips were short, but the fares were paid from scrounged lunch money and yard work done for neighbors. It seemed neither expensive or extravagant at the time.
 
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