Also balance the likelihood that IWR will end.
IWR has only been in place for the past 2 years, but for some reason ATCers are projecting this out for the next 30 years.
I'm considering a career change from the railroad to ATC, so this is also a troubling decision. I have to balance similar concerns that you might be thinking of. I'll share it with you all:
Railroad:
+Autonomous, I can work what I want w/o oversight
+Good seniority
+Reasonable pay (40 to 100/yr depending on assignment)
+Recession resistant, stable for next 50 years
+Difficult to get fired, union protected
+No yearly medicals
+Lots of variety in schedules, pay, crews, work, location
-Gone up to 3 days at a time
-Some assignments on-call 24/7
-Potentially dangerous working conditions
-Outdoor work in various weather conditions
-Not very 'prestigious', blue-collar labor
-Retirement requires 30 years of service AND 60 years of age
ATC:
+Retirement is 25 years at ANY age
+Significant upward potential (moving to large facilities, tracon, etc)
+5-day shifts, planned schedule, no on-call service
+Not hazardous
+More intellectually/mentally rewarding
+Reasonably pretigious and well-respected
+Higher hourly pay at a larger terminal
+Fulfills a dream to do something aviation related
+Govt. healthcare benefits and TSP plan
-Yearly medical exam
-Possible future contracting of ATC services
-Currently subject to IWR and low morale
-Up to the whims of future politicians (presidents like to meddle with ATC)