Boeing to study pilotless planes

I think we should see unmanned cargo ships and trains first. Those are still decades off from being fully autonomous, so I don't think we will have too much to be concerned about just yet (or even in our careers). We should only get worried when we see Skywest ordering UAVs.
 
Anyone who thinks this is feasible anytime soon has never had to get a computer to do anything useful beyond opening a web browser. It took me and a team of fellow nerds a year to figure out how to make an already existing print server count the number of pages students were printing at a university, and then figure out how to bill them accordingly. For this problem you'd have to invent technology that doesn't exist yet in order to solve some basic problems, and that doesn't even get to redundancy issues.

Computers don't think, they execute a programming language. What happens when the computer runs into something it isn't programmed to deal with? It crashes, ignores the problem, or ends up doing something completely unexpected.

And you don't even need to get as exotic as a Sully type situation. What happens when you run into a situation where a loss of both radar altimeters puts the aircraft in a situation where the autoland system doesn't know where to flare? Crash? Give up and crash? Crash on the runway? Ask if there are any pilots on board?

Now, single pilot cockpits? That's easy. We could do that today no problem.
 
jtrain609 said:
Anyone who thinks this is feasible anytime soon has never had to get a computer to do anything useful beyond opening a web browser.

Computers don't think, they execute a programming language. What happens when the computer runs into something it isn't programmed to deal with? It crashes, ignores the problem, or ends up doing something completely unexpected.

And you don't even need to get as exotic as a Sully type situation. What happens when you run into a situation where a loss of both radar altimeters puts the aircraft in a situation where the autoland system doesn't know where to flare? Crash? Give up and crash? Crash on the runway? Ask if there are any pilots on board?
Click to expand...

This. It would require sophisticated AI tech and we are a long way from that.
 
Skåning said:
I think we should see unmanned cargo ships and trains first. Those are still decades off from being fully autonomous, so I don't think we will have too much to be concerned about just yet (or even in our careers). We should only get worried when we see Skywest ordering UAVs.
Click to expand...

Remote controlled trains are already here. In fact, they've been used for many years.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remote_control_locomotive
 
I would actually think sea going autonomous cargo vessels would be harder to do than flying ones believe it or not. Navigating the thing around is not really a big deal, but the reliability of components in a marine environment is less than spectacular. Not to mention watch standing is a different ballgame when you're 4,000miles from Tor nearest alternate.

An airplane only has to work for up to 10-20hrs of time before it can be looked at calibrated and repaired. A ship might be out of harbor for a month or more.
 
Cptnchia said:
Unless or until there is a huge crash, with large loss of lives, and the end result is, "well, yes Senator, a human pilot wouldn't have done that, they probably could've landed without loss of life."
Click to expand...

I wouldn't be so sure of that, especially since most accidents are attributed to pilot error. The general perception among society is that modern airliners pretty much fly themselves, and that pilots are overpaid, underworked button-pushers. I doubt many people will be uncomfortable with autonomous airliners, especially since self-driving vehicles are likely to be commonplace within a decade. Also there have been plenty of accidents involving heavy airliners that do not require flight engineers, but I'm not aware of any movement to bring flight engineers back.

Screaming_Emu said:
There really isn't an industry out there where this isn't a threat.

It'll be almost as good for the economy as when they get rid of truck drivers.
Click to expand...

This. Studies show that 47% of today's jobs are likely to be automated out of existence in the next 25 years. Wages will surely plummet due to increased competition for the remaining jobs. Also there won't be much consumer demand with 47% structural unemployment, so the economy will likely enter a permanent depression. There are going to be some very bleak times ahead for most of us.

Soku39 said:
It's sad, but the only question is the timeline. That said there will be so many issues in society related to automation destroying jobs and the ruling class that we'll probably be worried about other things.
Click to expand...

Mass structural unemployment will certainly cause many issues in society. I suspect something like the "Terrafoam" system described in Manna by Marshalll Brain might be set up to mitigate these issues, and cheaply provide for the basic needs of the unemployed.
 
Last edited:
From Geekwire...
 

Attachments

  • IMG_4372.PNG
    IMG_4372.PNG
    238.2 KB · Views: 167
Yakob said:
I wouldn't be so sure of that, especially since most accidents are attributed to pilot error. The general perception among society is that modern airliners pretty much fly themselves, and that pilots are overpaid, underworked button-pushers. I doubt many people will be uncomfortable with autonomous airliners, especially since self-driving vehicles are likely to be commonplace within a decade. Also there have been plenty of accidents involving heavy airliners that do not require flight engineers, but I'm not aware of any movement to bring flight engineers back.



This. Studies show that 47% of today's jobs are likely to be automated out of existence in the next 25 years. Wages will surely plummet do to increased competition for the remaining jobs. Also there won't be much consumer demand with 47% structural unemployment, so the economy will likely enter a permanent depression. There are going to be some very bleak times ahead for most of us.



Mass structural unemployment will certainly cause many issues in society. I suspect something like the "Terrafoam" system described in Manna by Marshalll Brain might be set up to mitigate these issues, and cheaply provide for the basic needs of the unemployed.
Click to expand...
We've been through this before in a gazillion threads. People have made that same forecast since the beginning of technology and each new wave of technology brings more access to things like food, shelter, and transportation to more people more cheaply than the generation before. Put down the dystopian sci-fi and go out in the real working world for a bit.
 
Roger Roger said:
We've been through this before in a gazillion threads. People have made that same forecast since the beginning of technology and each new wave of technology brings more access to things like food, shelter, and transportation to more people more cheaply than the generation before. Put down the dystopian sci-fi and go out in the real working world for a bit.
Click to expand...

In the span of human history, from our Hunter Gatherer existence, to the Agricultural Revolution, to the Industrial Revolution, to the Information Age....the rise in fast paced technological innovation is a VERY RECENT PHENOMENON. Probably doesn't even register on the scale of human history. We really haven't been through this before. And the predictions you reference that you say haven't come true, may still be correct just off on the timeline. Unlike Homo Sapiens which have stopped, AI will continue to evolve.(I think Ray Kurzweill said 2029 to surpass Human intelligence, with 2047 being The Singularity). And will it evolve with the benefit of humanity in mind? To me, of course not. It won't care. To many thinkers, we are on the verge of a Post biological human era. So the 'predictions' that occurred in the last several decades(not even the blink of an eye) are irrelevant. And rather than them being wrong, they could be very visionary. Just wrong on pinning down the year. But @Yakob and @Soku39 can expand better than me.
 
Roger Roger said:
Well, yes senator, a computer would have -recognized the decaying airspeed trend and added power instead of yanking back on the yoke and retracting flaps
-lined up for the proper departure runway
-landed on the proper piece of pavement
Click to expand...
For every recorded accident or incident that is the result of pilot error, there are many tens of thousands of non-routine occurrences that are saved by pilot intervention.

It is, further, a massive fallacy to assume that a computer won't make its own brand of catastrophic errors.

Unfortunately, we're in the position of having to prove a negative, when we've allowed public sentiment to decay to "Oh you don't do anything up there anyway, and you make $600k while 'working' five days a year."

Even "Sully" wasn't enough to gainsay that.

People who think that this is a good thing in any way whatsoever are, frankly, grossly ignorant. Computing and AI need to turn the corner before anything like this should even be remotely considered, much less put into practice.

-Fox
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top