Boeing to study pilotless planes

Acrofox said:
For every recorded accident or incident that is the result of pilot error, there are many tens of thousands of non-routine occurrences that are saved by pilot intervention.

It is, further, a massive fallacy to assume that a computer won't make its own brand of catastrophic errors.

Unfortunately, we're in the position of having to prove a negative, when we've allowed public sentiment to decay to "Oh you don't do anything up there anyway, and you make $600k while 'working' five days a year."

Even "Sully" wasn't enough to gainsay that.

People who think that this is a good thing in any way whatsoever are, frankly, grossly ignorant. Computing and AI need to turn the corner before anything like this should even be remotely considered, much less put into practice.

-Fox
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Yakob said:
This. Studies show that 47% of today's jobs are likely to be automated out of existence in the next 25 years. Wages will surely plummet do to increased competition for the remaining jobs. Also there won't be much consumer demand with 47% structural unemployment, so the economy will likely enter a permanent depression. There are going to be some very bleak times ahead for most of us.
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Studies show that in the future, 200% of made up statistics will be made up by machines. Futher, computer analysis indicates this value is 100% correct 60% of the time.
 
Acrofox said:
For every recorded accident or incident that is the result of pilot error, there are many tens of thousands of non-routine occurrences that are saved by pilot intervention.

It is, further, a massive fallacy to assume that a computer won't make its own brand of catastrophic errors.

Unfortunately, we're in the position of having to prove a negative, when we've allowed public sentiment to decay to "Oh you don't do anything up there anyway, and you make $600k while 'working' five days a year."

Even "Sully" wasn't enough to gainsay that.

People who think that this is a good thing in any way whatsoever are, frankly, grossly ignorant. Computing and AI need to turn the corner before anything like this should even be remotely considered, much less put into practice.

-Fox
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That's true too. It's like saying '100 percent of all soccer games are caused by the goalie missing a save, so let's get rid of goalies.'
 
Louie1975 said:
That's true too. It's like saying '100 percent of all soccer games are caused by the goalie missing a save, so let's get rid of goalies.'
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Well if you replaced the goalie with a robot that blacked 99.999% of shots and the soccer community thought this was good because we wanted the lowest possible soccer game scores...then yes.

It's coming - make no mistake, and while technology can make some horrendous errors as well, there will be a point where the cost of the technology induced accidents will be less than the cost of paying pilots. That's coming quicker than most people are really ready for in a lot of industries.

In 10 years, when self-driving cars are ubiquitous the discussion will be wildly different. The first serious self driving cars are right around the corner - if the first truly autonomous vehicles roll off the line in two years, in 20 years we will have people who've never lived in a world without autonomous means of conveyance hit voting age. The future is going to be a lot more crazy than you think.
 
ppragman said:
Well if you replaced the goalie with a robot that blacked 99.999% of shots and the soccer community thought this was good because we wanted the lowest possible soccer game scores...then yes.

It's coming - make no mistake, and while technology can make some horrendous errors as well, there will be a point where the cost of the technology induced accidents will be less than the cost of paying pilots. That's coming quicker than most people are really ready for in a lot of industries.

In 10 years, when self-driving cars are ubiquitous the discussion will be wildly different. The first serious self driving cars are right around the corner - if the first truly autonomous vehicles roll off the line in two years, in 20 years we will have people who've never lived in a world without autonomous means of conveyance hit voting age. The future is going to be a lot more crazy than you think.
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Do you really think there's going to be a business that will survive after cratering a Boeing 737-1200ERMAXXX because it's cheaper than paying pilots? That's not gonna be a very sustainable model.

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bimmerphile said:
Do you really think there's going to be a business that will survive after cratering a Boeing 737-1200ERMAXXX because it's cheaper than paying pilots? That's not gonna be a very sustainable model.

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If the autonomous 737-1200ERMAXXX crash happened today, perhaps not. But in a decade or two, when self-driving cars will probably be the norm, it probably won't be such a scandal, especially in light of how many manned airliner accidents there have been. Pilotless airplanes won't have to be 100% perfect to be viable. They will just have to be no less safe, statistically speaking, than manned aircraft. Even a slight reduction in safety might be deemed acceptable if the reduction in costs can justify it.
 
Yakob said:
If the autonomous 737-1200ERMAXXX crash happened today, perhaps not. But in a decade or two, when self-driving cars will probably be the norm, it probably won't be such a scandal, especially in light of how many manned airliner accidents there have been. Pilotless airplanes won't have to be 100% perfect to be viable. They will just have to be no less safe, statistically speaking, than manned aircraft. Even a slight reduction in safety might be deemed acceptable if the reduction in costs can justify it.
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I take it you don't work in IT.

Oh wait we have a computer scientist we can ask about this!!! Hey @Autothrust Blue what do you think?
 
Amazing. Some nerds and their robotic fantasies are going to spend billions to remove us, yet no one will consider changing the FA to passenger ratio.
 
PhilosopherPilot said:
Look at the technology on a Tesla. It's pretty much ready to go, once approved.
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Actually if you look at some of the court cases around driver less cars and other ethical implications needed to be worked out, we are still a VERY far way away from driver less cars.

Also, you really think China/Russia is going to want a pilot less aircraft over their airspace with technology from another country? Do we want a pilot less aircraft from Russia or China over our airspace? We need to keep an eye on pilot less commercial aircraft, but it is (hopefully) not in the next generation of aircraft.
 
Skåning said:
I think we should see unmanned cargo ships and trains first. Those are still decades off from being fully autonomous, so I don't think we will have too much to be concerned about just yet (or even in our careers). We should only get worried when we see Skywest ordering UAVs.
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You know they would if the feds would let them.
 
Think about this logically for a moment. How long do you think it would take to refleet an entire industry to pilotless airplanes? I'm talking buying them and putting them into service? 15-20-30 years? How long do you think the development will take? 10-15 years?

So we'll call it 25 years at the soonest, 45 years at the latest? I think the vast majority of us are safe.

I see it coming, in 30 to 50 years tech wise. Probably longer public acceptance wise.
 
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