American Airlines agrees to purchase 20 supersonic jets

The Boeing SST once had orders from, what, 20 airlines? Concorde also had orders from tons of airlines including Pan Am and United (who both also ordered the Boeing SST). Until there is a prototype in testing WITH airlines still set for orders and more frames being built, I won't think it's happening.
 
The Airlines are in a bit of a bind. The first class passengers have found that they can go charter or fractional for similar money and have done so. They are trying to bring them back with trans Atlantic and Pacific supersonic flight which will be all first or extended business (or whatever bullpoop buzzwords they use this week). It won't be as luxurious as a chartered Falcon, but it is supposed to be faster assuming you don't count getting to a big airport 3 hours ahead of departure and waiting for baggage after landing)

As for carbon offsets, there isn't a single airline in the world that cares about green anything. But, they CAN receive money for Synthetic JetA (SAF is the selling term here) and similar "carbon neutral" to off set political pressure.

No way they'll be on revenue flights by 2030.
 
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Ehh, I think it's wrong to assume the airlines are buying these because they plan on making a massive profit with them. It's for prestige and to increase the value of the brand, even if they're not operating in the black. I don't think BA or AF ever turned a profit on the Concorde.
They did not. At the peak of Concorde's scheduled services, I think there were MAYBE 6 daily scheduled departures between both airlines, and that is when IAD and MIA also saw Concorde service along with the Braniff IAD-DFW subsonic venture with Air France and a short-lived BA/Singapore Airlines venture. For most of the history of scheduled Concorde service after the early 80s, most Concorde flights were actually charters or training sorties with CDG/LHR-JFK seeing 1-2x daily service. By the early 90s, 1x in each direction to/from JFK was the norm for both airlines. Now on the side, Concorde had annual "around the world" trips which differed year by year but one I can recall was something like LGW-JFK-DFW-LAS-KOA-CHC-ZQN-SYD-PEK-HKG-DEL-NBO-LGW. Those probably cost the customer a pretty penny and lasted a few weeks, and there were frequent group charters where planes in JFK would ferry down to say TPA and fly to GRU or do ZRH-MCT or something random like that (the CDG-JFK accident flight was also a group charter). Concorde, of course, was also often invited to airshows globally. But most of the time, the majority of the fleet was sitting around the hangars in LHR/CDG by the 1990s and they only began to fly less and less from then on.

It is hard to imagine there was any profit at all in that operation, given how much work per flight hour was needed as well.

Either way, if Boeing and Concorde couldn't get past the environmentalists of the flipping 60s to make this thing happen in North America, I'm so sure it'll happen in today's world lol. A little bit from Wikipedia about the end of the Boeing SST:

By this point, the opposition to the project was becoming increasingly vocal. Environmentalists were the most influential group, voicing concerns about possible depletion of the ozone layer due to the high altitude flights, and about noise at airports, as well as from sonic booms.[20]

The latter became the most significant rallying point, especially after the publication of the anti-SST paperback, SST and Sonic Boom Handbook edited by William Shurcliff, which claimed that a single flight would "leave a 'bang-zone' 50 miles wide by 2,000 miles long" along with a host of associated problems. During tests in 1964 with the XB-70 near Oklahoma City, the path had a maximum width of 16 miles, but still resulted in 9,594 complaints of damage to buildings, 4,629 formal damage claims, and 229 claims for a total of $12,845.32, mostly for broken glass and cracked plaster.[21] As the opposition widened, the claimed negative effects increased, including upsetting people who do delicate work (e.g., brain surgeons), and harming persons with nervous ailments.[20]

One concern was that the water vapor released by the engines into the stratosphere would envelop the earth in a "global gloom". Presidential Adviser Russell Train warned that a fleet of 500 SSTs flying at 65,000 ft. for a period of years could raise stratospheric water content by as much as 50% to 100%. According to Train, this could lead to greater ground-level heat and hamper the formation of ozone.[20] Later, an additional threat to the ozone was found in the exhaust's nitrogen oxides, a threat that was later validated by MIT.[22] More recent analysis in 1995 by David W. Fahey, an atmospheric scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and others found that the drop in ozone would be from 1 to 2% if a fleet of 500 supersonic aircraft was operated.[23] Fahey expressed the opinion that this would not be a fatal obstacle for an advanced SST development.[24]

At the time, there were 115 unfilled orders by 25 airlines, while Concorde had 74 orders from 16 customers.[29] The two prototypes were never completed. Due to the loss of several government contracts and a downturn in the civilian aviation market, Boeing reduced its number of employees by more than 60,000. The SST became known as "the airplane that almost ate Seattle." As a result of the mass layoffs and so many people moving away from the city in search of work, a billboard was erected near Sea-Tac airport in 1971 that read, "Will the last person leaving Seattle – turn out the lights".
 
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“Boom says construction will start this year and the first 65- to 88-seat aircraft will come off the line in 2024. Boom has 70 orders worth 14 billion for the aircraft from United and Japan Airlines and the U.S. Air Force is looking at military applications. The company is predicting it will have 1,750 workers by 2030 and 2,400 by 2032.”

tl;dr you can skip everything below where I'm just back-of-the-envelop estimating the costs of this thing. Or also skip everything above, too, I'm not your mother.

So, $200MM for an 88-seat supersonic jet.
List price:
  • A321neo is $130MM (200 seats and 2300 nm for a full load)
  • A350-900 is listed at $317MM (306 seats and 7000 nm)
That MIA-LHR flight they mention averages $1,000 per ticket. A full-load A350 would generate ~$306,000 and cost ~$260,000 to operate ($850 per seat), leaving $46,000 ($150 profit per seat) in an ideal scenario. Then say it does that 110 times per year for 20 years (1000 hours / 9 hour flights). That's $101MM profit on a $317MM investment (again, simplifying and using list prices everywhere)

So assuming they manage to make this jet for only $200MM per unit...

To get the same ROI on $200MM the would need to earn $63.8MM. They say they can make that nine-hour flight in five hours, and let's pretend they'll have the dispatch reliability of an Airbus, that makes 200 operations per year. So they would need to net $16,000 per flight ($180 profit per seat). I'm starting to see how naive or willfully-blind VC money could get interested; that number is close-enough for "version 1".

In airlines there's a rule-of-thumb that the cost of operating a flight breaks into three very-roughly equal parts: fuel, labor, equipment & facilities & marketing, etc. (note: it's a lot easier to put the squeeze on your employees than it is the oil companies or Airbus, Boeing, or the airports). And let's say Boom's engineers are good and they get a payload fraction equivalent to an A350 (they won't because it's a smaller jet, but they might get close and blow through that $200MM cost). Fisics says their burn per seat is still going to be worse -- much worse than the A350; say 6X per seat (seriously). Lastly, let's say they tricked some Riddle grads into flying a shiny jets for the productivity of an 88-seat RJ. That's going to squeeze-around the those roughly-equal thirds quite a bit.

Again for that MIA-LHR flight, lets say:
  • $150,000 for fuel
  • $25,000 for labor
  • $25,000 for equipment et al (I dunno, read your own damn 10-K to see what it's called)
$200,000 to operate plus that $16,000 profit equals $216,000. Divided by 88 seats equals $2,450 per ticket. I'm "most confident" in that fuel number, so if the labor catches on, or the aircraft is a MX hog and the 1/3s ratio still holds, that would push the ticket price up to $5,300. To break-even with an A350!

$1,500 to $4,300 to save eight hours (out and back). It's a PR scam: get legislatures to relax supersonic aircraft restrictions so "airlines" can do more business and foster technology growth. When really its gonna be a bunch of rich nobles wang-swinging about how fast their niche-market private jets are. Megayachts for people who think Gulfstreams are too accessible.
Pricing products/services to the middle class is very different than pricing to the top 1%. People won't bat an eye paying $5,000-$10,000 per ticket on this jet. The people this jet is marketing to, aren't sweating $5-10k. Not even close.

The thousands of people currently being told to pound sand at charter companies because they are sold out for years will turn to this as an alternative.
 
Pricing products/services to the middle class is very different than pricing to the top 1%. People won't bat an eye paying $5,000-$10,000 per ticket on this jet. The people this jet is marketing to, aren't sweating $5-10k. Not even close.

The thousands of people currently being told to pound sand at charter companies because they are sold out for years will turn to this as an alternative.
Exactly, a roundtrip ticket on Concorde from JFK was about $20k or so by the 2000s. It gave execs in the UK and France a chance to leave in the morning and be back home for dinner after a meeting in America, as Concorde flights landed in America with a local time EARLIER than they left Europe usually. The price tag on something like that isn't made to appeal to the average first-class customer lol.
 
Really? Where can I find these charter flights? I’ve priced them out a number of times, and I always got quotes that were roughly 15x the first class price. I haven’t been able to justify it.
Charter is ridiculously expensive. To a peasant like me, ownership, is beyond fathomable. However, Warren Buffet used to be adamantly against private jet ownership, until he actually owned one. After realizing the benefits he bought an entire airline of them.

Sometimes the money doesn't make sense, but you may be comparing the wrong things.

 
Charter is ridiculously expensive. To a peasant like me, ownership, is beyond fathomable. However, Warren Buffet used to be adamantly against private jet ownership, until he actually owned one. After realizing the benefits he bought an entire airline of them.

Sometimes the money doesn't make sense, but you may be comparing the wrong things.


For Buffett it’s understandable. He has to worry about security, shareholder interests, etc. For me and the average first class passenger, it’s really just a matter of how much your time is worth. And until you reach the top 0.1% of income earners, the value of your time isn’t enough to justify the added costs. At least by my calculations .
 
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Charter is ridiculously expensive. To a peasant like me, ownership, is beyond fathomable. However, Warren Buffet used to be adamantly against private jet ownership, until he actually owned one. After realizing the benefits he bought an entire airline of them.

Sometimes the money doesn't make sense, but you may be comparing the wrong things.


You sound poor
 
Really? Where can I find these charter flights? I’ve priced them out a number of times, and I always got quotes that were roughly 15x the first class price. I haven’t been able to justify it.

15x?

Let’s say you have eight execs that need to travel MEM-MCO. Just priced first class at $1900, that’s $15,200. With that booking, it turns into a three day affair (travel day, work day, travel day). Add $3200 for rooms, meals, and incidentals.

We are at $18,800 and have wasted 16 work days just in travel days.

Charter flights are occasionally economical.
 
15x?

Let’s say you have eight execs that need to travel MEM-MCO. Just priced first class at $1900, that’s $15,200. With that booking, it turns into a three day affair (travel day, work day, travel day). Add $3200 for rooms, meals, and incidentals.

We are at $18,800 and have wasted 16 work days just in travel days.

Charter flights are occasionally economical.

When you have large groups of execs traveling the same route at the same time, sure. But that’s unusual for people booking first class.
 
Even so, 10ish first class seats on UA/AS/HA whatever from the US West Coast to Hawaii bought in advance with normal uninflated prices (you can find tickets for like $700-900 roundtrip fairly often in first) vs a Falcon or something doesn't seem to even come close in cost, and that's just a 5ish hour flight looking at small to mid cabin jets. So I can't imagine that long haul jet charter is any better...

But I agree with our resident property Barron. Unless it is for a specific event with colleagues or a wedding in some indirect out-of-the-way place or something, it isn't the norm that most of the private jet crowd would have enough of a group to be able to claim the price per seat is close to a first class ticket lol. But if you live a multi-hour drive from a big hub airport and have the money to have a jet pick you up at the uncontrolled field right by your house and drop you off at another smaller airport right where you need to go on the other side of the country and it saves you half a day or more, connecting, TSA, lines and waits, a Worldstar Hip Hop cameo, etc, then I'd say it's worth it.
 
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Well, Boom no longer has a engine as RR pulled out.

2 days until the bankruptcy announcement I bet.

 
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