Amazon PrimeAir

500 years from now?? I'd go with 15 or 20. We are already in an airplane whose engines have flamed out. Everything seems fine to most folks only because we're still gliding. If we make it through the next 50-100 years, I predict things will be much better in 500 years. But those next 50-100... they're gonna be tough.

I agree with that. My point was only that "never" shouldn't be used when discussing technology and the future. In the 1950s a computer would never be in every home, sitting in our laps, or walking around in our pockets...
 
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I agree with that. My point was only that "never" shouldn't be used when discussing technology and the future. In the 1950s a computer would never be in every home, sitting in our laps, or walking around in our pockets...

Point. Agreed.
One should never, ever use absolutes. It's always a bad idea. ;)
 
Call me a Debby Downer, but 500 years from now, we will be out of fuel. My pessimistic view of the world 500 years from now is pretty bleak actually Between AGW, super bugs, and mad regimes w/ easy "how I designed a nuclear bomb in my junior year at Princeton" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Aristotle_Phillips) types, not good.
While I agree with Crop Duster that we're going to have a rough decade or ten in front of us, the reality is that we pretty much have the technology now to start building a carbon free utility grid that puts off fresh water, and perhaps even carbon free hydrocarbons as a byproduct, with very little waste while dealing with some of our current nuclear waste. If we really got onboard with that now our next century could be pretty incredible.

As it is, the reality is that most environmentalists will never be satisfied unless everything is wind and solar, which will NEVER reliably power a utility system on its own. Until that political minority gets off it's high horse all we're going to do is just burning coal.
 
Call me a Debby Downer, but 500 years from now, we will be out of fuel. My pessimistic view of the world 500 years from now is pretty bleak actually Between AGW, super bugs, and mad regimes w/ easy "how I designed a nuclear bomb in my junior year at Princeton" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Aristotle_Phillips) types, not good.
The refining process didn't exist until around 160 years ago, and the refined product led to internal combustion engines, cars, powerboats, planes, and eventually jet aircraft. I'm confident that what replaces refined oil will vastly improve upon what we are currently driving and flying.
 
My favorite part on Prime Air website: "and wait for the necessary FAA rules and regulations." ...and wait...and wait...and wait...

Q: When will I be able to choose Prime Air as a delivery option?
A: We hope the FAA's rules will be in place as early as sometime in 2015. We will be ready at that time.

I would not be surprised if it wasnt until 2025 or even later
 
Interesting, this was on TED recently....

Exactly. This is very very cool. And not highly unlikely, as has been suggested. Why is it that pilots are so unimaginative, considering that we do something that was unimaginable prior to the 1940s (intercontinental jet transportation), and certainly prior to 1903 (powered flight in general)?

You'd think we would be the ones saying "watch out, you have no idea how far aviation will go" as opposed to "nah, that will NEVER happen."
 
You'd think we would be the ones saying "watch out, you have no idea how far aviation will go" as opposed to "nah, that will NEVER happen."
Because for the last 30+ years we've hit the point where we *could* keep innovating at break neck speeds but we don't. Not for lack of technical abilities but for lack of public backing. We're not interested in math or science. We're not interested in new innovations. We're interested in the almighty dollar and the almighty dollar is quite risk averse.
 
Because for the last 30+ years we've hit the point where we *could* keep innovating at break neck speeds but we don't. Not for lack of technical abilities but for lack of public backing. We're not interested in math or science. We're not interested in new innovations. We're interested in the almighty dollar and the almighty dollar is quite risk averse.
Where's my damn SST?
 
Because for the last 30+ years we've hit the point where we *could* keep innovating at break neck speeds but we don't. Not for lack of technical abilities but for lack of public backing. We're not interested in math or science. We're not interested in new innovations. We're interested in the almighty dollar and the almighty dollar is quite risk averse.

The iPad I'm reading this on disagrees with you. Last weekend, I designed a mold-quality plastic part in my kitchen. The innovation is still here... It's just not in massive transportation/aeronautics projects.
 
Has anyone thought that this might just be the biggest PR scam in the history of online commerce?
Done more than thought about it. A rather non-flattering book on Bezos and Amazon.com, Inc. just came out. The real casualty is the credibility of 60 Minutes...well, what little credibility they had left over anyway.

"Look at how cool our CEO is, everyone!"
 
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