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That just shows production of 190-250 hour pilots is strong, but for the 121 sector those commercial pilots need more time and another training event (ATP-CTP & ATP checkride) before they're viable to the 121 world. It also means that 9,999 pilots are about to hit the internet and post "Just got my CP-ASEL, AMEL, complex endorsement and looking for a job, not really interested in instructing, what else is out there?" Another factor is many of those pilots are going to encounter some sort of hardship while trying to achieve those hours needed for the ATP (impatience, legal or medical, domestic) and leave the industry before 'making it'.

Later today I have some free time and I'll see what the latest dump of airmen statistics looks like, i.e. issuance of ATPs year over year and see how it compares to CPL issuances.
Definitely, that and the foreign aspect. Just posted as another funny article from Aero Crew. Look forward to seeing the info you dig up.
 
There’s an oversupply of regional FOs right now. The big squeeze seems to be regional captains.
There's truth to this.

There was a Republic FO in my crash-pad and he essentially said the same thing. Republic halted hiring because they're bleeding Captains and can't staff their routes; the FO's can't upgrade because they don't meet 121.436. Not to mention the lack of LCA (that's the short version).
 
There's truth to this.

There was a Republic FO in my crash-pad and he essentially said the same thing. Republic halted hiring because they're bleeding Captains and can't staff their routes; the FO's can't upgrade because they don't meet 121.436. Not to mention the lack of LCA (that's the short version).

Too often pilots don't realize they may qualify under 121.436(a)(3)(i) through (v), unless that regional is their first job and have no other aeronautical experience to look back on.

Definitely, that and the foreign aspect. Just posted as another funny article from Aero Crew. Look forward to seeing the info you dig up.

Indeed, I'll see what I can find.
 
As expected, there is a drop off from commercial issuances and ATP, and in this one set of data (issuances between 2012 - 2021) it would appear that less than 50% of those commercial applicants are upgrading to ATPs. Probably a good portion of those airmen were foreign pilots and didn't need to pursue any further FAA ratings. Some of those may also be the same airmen counted twice, as 9 year is sufficient time to go from a wet commercial to wet ATP. This is just one data point, but worth jumping in a little more:


1681929079461.png


It appears the ATP-airplane category has peaked in 2019.

1681930063617.png
 
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Basically the regional model is doing a better job at attracting first officers, just that they've done a rotten job of
(a) Grooming new captains
(b) Holding on to captains

So things are at a standstill because few have the experience to upgrade and a lot of those don't have the skills to lead because there aren't those around to establish corporate culture. Just add captains, the regional side is fire, ut how do you add captains when FO's aren't getting enough flying because of a lack of captains to fly with.

The saving grace is going to be the music stopping if the economy slips, but offer a ticket for $500, sell 200. Offer a ticket for $1000, sell 300. Demand is hot.
 
The regionals will eventually stabilize.

Legacies are starting to finally get back to pre-covid numbers and will be hiring primarily for attrition sometime next year. Still a lot of hiring but the 2000+ pilots/year targets will definitely get reduced quite a bit. Especially at Delta and United.
 
Basically the regional model is doing a better job at attracting first officers, just that they've done a rotten job of
(a) Grooming new captains
(b) Holding on to captains

So things are at a standstill because few have the experience to upgrade and a lot of those don't have the skills to lead because there aren't those around to establish corporate culture. Just add captains, the regional side is fire, ut how do you add captains when FO's aren't getting enough flying because of a lack of captains to fly with.

The saving grace is going to be the music stopping if the economy slips, but offer a ticket for $500, sell 200. Offer a ticket for $1000, sell 300. Demand is hot.
The "grooming new captains" is a particular issue. At my previous shop, the last couple of years it became a threat filled environment. A fair amount of new pilots were hired into a "flow program", and if you wanted to flow up, you'd better be fully compliant.

Sick calls/fatigue calls were "monitored" and used against you (which, I do think that's thankfully changed), and if you rocked the boat too much, you were brought in for "counselling". Push back or stand your ground at all against dispatch, central load planning, etc...well, you must not be a team player.

Regional captain is were you get to learn/put in to practice those skills required for that dream major job.
 
At my previous shop, the last couple of years it became a threat filled environment. A fair amount of new pilots were hired into a "flow program", and if you wanted to flow up, you'd better be fully compliant.

Sick calls/fatigue calls were "monitored" and used against you (which, I do think that's thankfully changed), and if you rocked the boat too much, you were brought in for "counselling". Push back or stand your ground at all against dispatch, central load planning, etc...well, you must not be a team player.

Regional captain is were you get to learn/put in to practice those skills required for that dream major job.

Very similar situation at my regional.
 
Basically the regional model is doing a better job at attracting first officers, just that they've done a rotten job of
(a) Grooming new captains
(b) Holding on to captains

So things are at a standstill because few have the experience to upgrade and a lot of those don't have the skills to lead because there aren't those around to establish corporate culture. Just add captains, the regional side is fire, ut how do you add captains when FO's aren't getting enough flying because of a lack of captains to fly with.

The saving grace is going to be the music stopping if the economy slips, but offer a ticket for $500, sell 200. Offer a ticket for $1000, sell 300. Demand is hot

As long as the majors are willing to hire regional captains at the rate they are now, it's pretty much impossible for regionals to do (B) without being fundamentally different from what they are now. No one in their right mind is going to stay at the regionals making peanuts until they get kicked out onto the streets when their regional inevitably gets Comaired if they have the opportunity to escape. Perhaps the majors will come to some kind of agreement not to hire pilots from eachothers' regionals. Though I doubt such a pilot-friendly hiring climate will last long anyway.
 
As long as the majors are willing to hire regional captains at the rate they are now, it's pretty much impossible for regionals to do (B) without being fundamentally different from what they are now. No one in their right mind is going to stay at the regionals making peanuts until they get kicked out onto the streets when their regional inevitably gets Comaired if they have the opportunity to escape. Perhaps the majors will come to some kind of agreement not to hire pilots from eachothers' regionals. Though I doubt such a pilot-friendly hiring climate will last long anyway.

The big war right now are airlines hiring OTHER airlines feeder pilots at all levels.

If I didn't say it was getting a little "high school", I'd be lying.

I'll save the "Inside Baseball" for "Story Time WIth Uncle Derg".
 
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