AAG to Transfer Envoy ERJ-145s to TSA and Piedmont

[Autothrust Blue]

I understand what you're saying, but the problem is what others mentioned above: zero job security. When you don't control the flying, it can disappear overnight. Securing career advancement should be the goal of every regional pilot group. If you're focused on getting better pay, you're just going to put yourself out of a job. That's just the business model. Get that flow through, and move on up. And don't wait for the flow, either. If you can get out sooner, then get out!

The other side of the equation, of course, is that mainline pilot groups should adapt the point of view of "not one more seat, pound, jet, or job."

(If this is, indeed, to be the New Normal, then that's what we need to see.)

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

The other side of the equation, of course, is that mainline pilot groups should adapt the point of view of "not one more seat, pound, jet, or job."

(If this is, indeed, to be the New Normal, then that's what we need to see.)

I think that's where most of them are right now, but you have to remember, everything is always for sale. It's just a matter of price.

And then there's bankruptcy. I know it seems crazy to think about it right now while airlines are flooded with cash, but it seemed crazy in 2000 when airlines were doing billion dollar quarters also. It will come again, and then the gun will be to the pilots' heads once more. Since Moak has wasted so much time and energy carrying the A4A's water, we've done nothing to address this problem.

 

[Maurus]

Then you don't understand what a b scale is.

The only way mainline will take more than the minimum required of them is if they can keep PDT and PSA staffed properly over the next ten years. The minimums would take 8-10 years to get through everyone on their seniority lists. Come the expiration (I read the TAs. The flows expire from what I can tell) of these flow/interview agreements the new guys will be stuck in a terrible contract. There is no guarantee of a flow being available come 2024 meaning the value of this agreement drops dramatically.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

The only way mainline will take more than the minimum required of them is if they can keep PDT and PSA staffed properly over the next ten years. The minimums would take 8-10 years to get through everyone on their seniority lists. Come the expiration (I read the TAs. The flows expire from what I can tell) of these flow/interview agreements the new guys will be stuck in a terrible contract. There is no guarantee of a flow being available come 2024 meaning the value of this agreement drops dramatically.

I've seen other people argue this, and it's a ludicrous argument. When making calculations of how long it takes to get through the list, you have to ignore the fact that most people are getting jobs at other carriers, not just sitting around and waiting for the flow to get to them. People are leaving for Delta, United, Spirit, Virgin, JetBlue, Southwest, Atlas, etc. The flows are only a small portion of the movement. Factor in the rest, and it takes nowhere near as long to get through the current list on the flow.

 

[Autothrust Blue]

I think that's where most of them are right now, but you have to remember, everything is always for sale. It's just a matter of price.

And then there's bankruptcy. I know it seems crazy to think about it right now while airlines are flooded with cash, but it seemed crazy in 2000 when airlines were doing billion dollar quarters also. It will come again, and then the gun will be to the pilots' heads once more. Since Moak has wasted so much time and energy carrying the A4A's water, we've done nothing to address this problem.

You don't have to tell me, I remember.

 

[meyers9163]

The only way mainline will take more than the minimum required of them is if they can keep PDT and PSA staffed properly over the next ten years. The minimums would take 8-10 years to get through everyone on their seniority lists. Come the expiration (I read the TAs. The flows expire from what I can tell) of these flow/interview agreements the new guys will be stuck in a terrible contract. There is no guarantee of a flow being available come 2024 meaning the value of this agreement drops dramatically.

If you ACTUALLY read it then you see one all AC are on property that number is set to be raised.... To how many etc will be discussed once that time is reached.... However if this is the model desired, why would they not want movement up and out? Call me crazy but I think that number will increase and it'll work out....

However I was also told the SAP in the contract Bobduck knows well, wasn't going to work and it has. Was told all pilots would be capped immediately? That didn't happen. Was told AA wouldn't actually take 48 this year? They have.... But who knows....

 

[Skyvector]

The LEC reps here at Envoy continue to blame AA for everything that is happening. In particular the NY and DFW reps (big suprise) are going to the mattresses in convincing everyone that our problems are the company's fault. According to them, AA can solve our staffing issues by just giving us the planes already. They are completely distancing themselves from any responsibility.

What's worse are the impressionable pilots who just bow their heads like sheep and go along with it. Sorry for the rant, but I'm fed up. Our careers at Envoy have been destroyed and our long term earning potential set back by years. All thanks to a group of loudmouths who think they know it all and were able to convince everyone the company was just bluffing.

But it's ok. Many of those directly involved with our last vote getting tanked have since flowed to AA. Good for them.

 

[wheelsup]

I think that's where most of them are right now, but you have to remember, everything is always for sale. It's just a matter of price.

And then there's bankruptcy. I know it seems crazy to think about it right now while airlines are flooded with cash, but it seemed crazy in 2000 when airlines were doing billion dollar quarters also. It will come again, and then the gun will be to the pilots' heads once more. Since Moak has wasted so much time and energy carrying the A4A's water, we've done nothing to address this problem.

Airlines have never made a billion dollars in a quarter. UAL had the highest yearly income in either '99 or '00 and it was around $1.2 billion.

But, hard times are definitely ahead, and it's nuts that the big carriers are buying back stock at all time high record levels. 95% of companies who buy back stock, do so at it's peak price. Both Delta and AA are doing so right now. A billion dollars worth, to be exact.

That's what happened when US Airways under Wolfe bought back all that stock to stir up the United merger. They burned all that cash and when 9/11 happened, presto instant 50% shrinkage and bankruptcy.

The airlines that are paying down debt, renewing their fleet with cash, and in general making smart financial moves will continue to grow. That is the best way to pick the airline you hang your hat at IMO. Legacies might be making money now but they will also lose a significant amount in the next downturn.

 

[chrisreedrules]

This industry is crazy.

 

[USMCmech]

Bear in mind that I pretty much only know what I read here and a few other boards. Also, I am playing Devils Advocate a bit here, but I have a few honest questions.

Envoy is already understaffed and is loosing pilots faster than they can park airplanes. Is that not correct?

If so, then Envoy probably wouldn't be flying those airplanes anyway, so what's the harm done?

What is the likelihood that TSA and Piedmont will be able to staff these new planes over the next few years? The only regional I know of that is not currently desperate for pilots is Horizon (Expressjet is shrinking so I'm not counting them), while everyone else is hiring almost anyone with an ATP and a pulse.

If Envoy, ExpressJet, and Endeavor disappear, then what? There are three less regionals to whipsaw against each other, isn't that a good thing in the long term?


AAG has made it clear that they plan on shrinking Envoy down to nothing. Even if it costs them more in the short term, they feel they have to carry through with their threat to maintain credibility.

Eagle was my first choice 18 months ago before all this happened, but now have a class date with Mesa who was on life support 36 months ago but is growing now. It's crazy how fast this industry can change.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

What is the likelihood that TSA and Piedmont will be able to staff these new planes over the next few years? The only regional I know of that is not currently desperate for pilots is Horizon (Expressjet is shrinking so I'm not counting them), while everyone else is hiring almost anyone with an ATP and a pulse.

PSA and Piedmont are having absolutely no problem finding pilots. All it takes is a little bit of growth, and pilots flock to you.

If Envoy, ExpressJet, and Endeavor disappear, then what? There are three less regionals to whipsaw against each other, isn't that a good thing in the long term?

Not if you're someone who works there and has a family to feed.

 

[USMCmech]

PSA and Piedmont are having absolutely no problem finding pilots. All it takes is a little bit of growth, and pilots flock to you.

For now.

For PSA to staff all of those new airplanes, they will have to double the number of pilots they currently have in just two years. Even without any attrition that seems like it will be a serious challenge.

Not if you're someone who works there and has a family to feed.

Of course it's a crap sandwich for the guys who currently work there, and the last thing I ever want to see is someone loose their job. Despite that, all of the Envoy guys I've spoken with are either lifers who plan on riding Envoy all the way to the ground, or young guys who are jumping ship ASAP.

However, with consolidation of some of the regionals, some disappearing all together, and the remainder starting to balk at some of the contracts offered by mainline, regional lift should start getting more expensive. More expensive regional lift should cause more of that flying to go back to mainline which is a good thing for the industry.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

For now.

For PSA to staff all of those new airplanes, they will have to double the number of pilots they currently have in just two years. Even without any attrition that seems like it will be a serious challenge.

It won't be. Especially if a large carrier like Envoy or XJT goes belly up, flooding the market with RJ FOs.

However, with consolidation of some of the regionals, some disappearing all together, and the remainder starting to balk at some of the contracts offered by mainline, regional lift should start getting more expensive. More expensive regional lift should cause more of that flying to go back to mainline which is a good thing for the industry.

People have to stop dreaming about this nonsense. It's leading to bad decisions. The mainline carriers have more regional feed than they need. They're systematically reducing that feed by whipsawing pilots against each other to narrow the feed down to the people willing to do it for the cheapest with the lowest longevity. The result will be a much smaller regional industry, but one locked into costs that the mainline carriers find appealing to their business model. You can either be employed at one of those carriers, or you can lose your job. Seriously, people, this isn't a fight you can win. Stop listening to STW. You have no leverage.

 

[Trip7]

If you ACTUALLY read it then you see one all AC are on property that number is set to be raised.... To how many etc will be discussed once that time is reached.... However if this is the model desired, why would they not want movement up and out? Call me crazy but I think that number will increase and it'll work out....

However I was also told the SAP in the contract Bobduck knows well, wasn't going to work and it has. Was told all pilots would be capped immediately? That didn't happen. Was told AA wouldn't actually take 48 this year? They have.... But who knows....

Pessimism and lack of long term vision will cost some folks millions over a career. Those focused on the long term and career advancement will take advantage of the abundance of opportunity available today. Darwinism at its finest.

 

[MikeD]

The mainline carriers have more regional feed than they need. They're systematically reducing that feed by whipsawing pilots against each other to narrow the feed down to the people willing to do it for the cheapest with the lowest longevity. .

This makes me picture movies like Gladiator or Rome, where the mainline carriers are sitting in the stands, watching and directing the battle in the arena of all the regional slaves fighting to the death. Then giving their thumbs up/down.

 

[Screaming_Emu]

Pessimism and lack of long term vision will cost some folks millions over a career. Those focused on the long term and career advancement will take advantage of the abundance of opportunity available today. Darwinism at its finest.

Yes, and the single mom doing favors in a back alley for coke is furthering her career.

 

[Autothrust Blue]

This makes me picture movies like Gladiator or Rome, where the mainline carriers are sitting in the stands, watching and directing the battle in the arena of all the regional slaves fighting to the death. Then giving their thumbs up/down.

Ah yes - when's the next big scope giveaway?

ACHIEVEMENT UNLOCKED: SHINY JET CAPTAINCY!!!1111ONE

 

[Maurus]

Be selfish.

In Unity,

(Insert favorite ALPA rep)

 

[Skyvector]

Bear in mind that I pretty much only know what I read here and a few other boards. Also, I am playing Devils Advocate a bit here, but I have a few honest questions.

Envoy is already understaffed and is loosing pilots faster than they can park airplanes. Is that not correct?

If so, then Envoy probably wouldn't be flying those airplanes anyway, so what's the harm done?

Envoy's attrition did not spike until after recent events. In particular after the failed vote in March. Before that Envoy's attrition was below average compared to other Regionals. So yes, harm was done. Profoundly so.

What is the likelihood that TSA and Piedmont will be able to staff these new planes over the next few years? The only regional I know of that is not currently desperate for pilots is Horizon (Expressjet is shrinking so I'm not counting them), while everyone else is hiring almost anyone with an ATP and a pulse.

This is a fallacy that has burned more people at the Regional industry than I care to remember. Envoy is the latest victim. Never doubt an airline's ability to hire. There are always pilots-such as yourself-looking to get into the airlines for one reason or another.

If Envoy, ExpressJet, and Endeavor disappear, then what? There are three less regionals to whipsaw against each other, isn't that a good thing in the long term?

A good thing? These are real human beings who work for those companies. Real people with families, not numbers on a spreadsheet. If one Regional closes down all it does is move pieces around on a chessboard. It doesn't improve life at any other Regional by once inch. It does ruin lives at the Regional that shut down, however.

AAG has made it clear that they plan on shrinking Envoy down to nothing. Even if it costs them more in the short term, they feel they have to carry through with their threat to maintain credibility.

Eagle was my first choice 18 months ago before all this happened, but now have a class date with Mesa who was on life support 36 months ago but is growing now. It's crazy how fast this industry can change.

Look, I know this is all new for you and you are really excited about becoming an airline pilot. That is great. But are you willing to listen to some advice? There are NO good Regionals. Never have been and never will be one. Anybody who has ever thought they worked for a "Premier" Regional was only fooling themselves and displaying their ignorance. The Regional industry is VERY cyclical and everything can change tomorrow.

I know this is your first airline job. It still has that new car smell and as such you think Mesa is the greatest airline in the world. Don't make that mistake. Many others before you have. Keep your head down, maintain as much humility as possible, and keep your opinions to a minimum. ESPECIALLY as it concerns other airlines. Get your time, hopefully you upgrade in a reasonable time and are able to move up and out. Don't make your Regional career anymore than what it is.

 

[ClarkGriswold]

Yes, and the single mom doing favors in a back alley for coke is furthering her career.

Wait, how could she further it when shes already at the top?