HobGoblin
Well-Known Member
-Warning-
Huge wall of non sensical text
APC states AA planned on hiring 600 in 2014, and 1500 for the next three years. However other articles state that number at 1500 over five years. What's the correct number? Does it seem like a safe assumption they would continue to hire for the foreseeable future, if not increase the hiring rate, as the mandatory retirements start to pickup pace? According to FAPA 453 pilots have been hired by American this year.
(Correct me if any of the following information is wrong. Also large assumptions are made, and I neglect attrition as it's hard to calculate. That in itself makes my calculations inaccurate. I'd appreciate any input and opinions.)
As of the last seniority list(10/13/14), it appeared there were about 2500 envoy pilots.
So far, 220 of the 824 have flowed. The 824 should be a minimum 20 per month, and ultimately should be 50 percent of the AA new hires. So at 20 a month that is a minimum 2.5 years for the remaining 600 of the 824 to flow. As the latest flows have been around 330 seniority, that would put the last 824 at about 930 seniority. If AA is only hiring 500 per year, 20 a month works out roughly right, to meet the 50 percent ratio.
After the 824, then there is the protected pilot group. 35% of the each AA class have to be eagle pilots. In the event 35% of AA new hire classes exceeds 25 pilots a month, they are required to release at least 25 pilots. At best we can say 25 pilots a month with flow, as contractually that would be the most pilots they have to release. That's AAG hiring about 900 total a year, 300 being from envoy. It of course could be more or less.
The last pilot whom is part of the protected pilot group is seniority 2200, a 10/11/11 hire.
So if we assume it's taken 2.5 years to get through the 824, stopping at 930 seniority, then to get through the remaining 1,270 at a rate of 25 a month would take about 4.2 years additional years, for a total of almost 7 years from today for the most junior protected pilot to flow to American.
I have no idea what AA is capable of hiring, and plans on hiring in the future. If AA continues to only hire 300-500 a year, 35% would be a minimum 100-175 flows per year, which means it could take 12.7 to 7.25 years to get through the 1270 protected pilots, putting the total wait to almost 10 to 15 years from now.
With AA and US airways combined mandatory retirements exceeding 500 in 2018 and doubling it in 2023, I can only assume hiring rate will have to increase from 500 per year.
The combined AA and US retirements.
2015- 285
2016- 341
2017- 424
2018- 562
2019- 692
2020- 796
2021- 830
2022- 870
2023- 1,003
2024- 956
2025- 942
On the subject of the increased flow, the rumor is 50 percent for everyone after the 824, and minimum 30 a month for the 824. Will it still have the 25 pilot per month caveat? One hopes not, as that seems like an easy out to bypass a minimum percentage if AA hiring really kicks into high gear.
Assuming the 50% for all and 30 a month for the 824, The remaining 600 of the 824 would only take 1 year and 8 months. A new hire is still looking at AAG having to hire 4340 pilots before they flow.
(1200 hired to get through the remaining 600 of the 824, plus there are 2500 pilots on property, so 2500-930=1570 pilots. At a 50 percent ratio that's 3140 pilots hired at AA plus the 1200 hired which gives me the 4340 pilots)
How long will that take? By the end of 2022 AAG will have retired 4800 pilots, will they have hired 4800 to replace that? That's 600 a year for 8 years.
I don't know if the new AAG plans on growing or shrinking their overall mainline pilot group. I assume with a merger there is always some consolidation and overall slight loss of jobs, compared to being two separate airlines.
Attrition is through the roof at the moment due to many factors. To make the math easier I of course made incorrect assumptions, such as no attrition, and everyone that hasn't flowed yet would accept the flow. I have no idea how many people will leave envoy in the meantime. Currently we are losing a lot of pilots, though I would think that will slow if and when we get some new planes and perhaps an increased flow.
I realize my post is wholly inaccurate due to neglecting attrition, but I don't know of a good way to predict the future attrition.
Huge wall of non sensical text
APC states AA planned on hiring 600 in 2014, and 1500 for the next three years. However other articles state that number at 1500 over five years. What's the correct number? Does it seem like a safe assumption they would continue to hire for the foreseeable future, if not increase the hiring rate, as the mandatory retirements start to pickup pace? According to FAPA 453 pilots have been hired by American this year.
(Correct me if any of the following information is wrong. Also large assumptions are made, and I neglect attrition as it's hard to calculate. That in itself makes my calculations inaccurate. I'd appreciate any input and opinions.)
As of the last seniority list(10/13/14), it appeared there were about 2500 envoy pilots.
So far, 220 of the 824 have flowed. The 824 should be a minimum 20 per month, and ultimately should be 50 percent of the AA new hires. So at 20 a month that is a minimum 2.5 years for the remaining 600 of the 824 to flow. As the latest flows have been around 330 seniority, that would put the last 824 at about 930 seniority. If AA is only hiring 500 per year, 20 a month works out roughly right, to meet the 50 percent ratio.
After the 824, then there is the protected pilot group. 35% of the each AA class have to be eagle pilots. In the event 35% of AA new hire classes exceeds 25 pilots a month, they are required to release at least 25 pilots. At best we can say 25 pilots a month with flow, as contractually that would be the most pilots they have to release. That's AAG hiring about 900 total a year, 300 being from envoy. It of course could be more or less.
The last pilot whom is part of the protected pilot group is seniority 2200, a 10/11/11 hire.
So if we assume it's taken 2.5 years to get through the 824, stopping at 930 seniority, then to get through the remaining 1,270 at a rate of 25 a month would take about 4.2 years additional years, for a total of almost 7 years from today for the most junior protected pilot to flow to American.
I have no idea what AA is capable of hiring, and plans on hiring in the future. If AA continues to only hire 300-500 a year, 35% would be a minimum 100-175 flows per year, which means it could take 12.7 to 7.25 years to get through the 1270 protected pilots, putting the total wait to almost 10 to 15 years from now.
With AA and US airways combined mandatory retirements exceeding 500 in 2018 and doubling it in 2023, I can only assume hiring rate will have to increase from 500 per year.
The combined AA and US retirements.
2015- 285
2016- 341
2017- 424
2018- 562
2019- 692
2020- 796
2021- 830
2022- 870
2023- 1,003
2024- 956
2025- 942
On the subject of the increased flow, the rumor is 50 percent for everyone after the 824, and minimum 30 a month for the 824. Will it still have the 25 pilot per month caveat? One hopes not, as that seems like an easy out to bypass a minimum percentage if AA hiring really kicks into high gear.
Assuming the 50% for all and 30 a month for the 824, The remaining 600 of the 824 would only take 1 year and 8 months. A new hire is still looking at AAG having to hire 4340 pilots before they flow.
(1200 hired to get through the remaining 600 of the 824, plus there are 2500 pilots on property, so 2500-930=1570 pilots. At a 50 percent ratio that's 3140 pilots hired at AA plus the 1200 hired which gives me the 4340 pilots)
How long will that take? By the end of 2022 AAG will have retired 4800 pilots, will they have hired 4800 to replace that? That's 600 a year for 8 years.
I don't know if the new AAG plans on growing or shrinking their overall mainline pilot group. I assume with a merger there is always some consolidation and overall slight loss of jobs, compared to being two separate airlines.
Attrition is through the roof at the moment due to many factors. To make the math easier I of course made incorrect assumptions, such as no attrition, and everyone that hasn't flowed yet would accept the flow. I have no idea how many people will leave envoy in the meantime. Currently we are losing a lot of pilots, though I would think that will slow if and when we get some new planes and perhaps an increased flow.
I realize my post is wholly inaccurate due to neglecting attrition, but I don't know of a good way to predict the future attrition.
