121 Retirements

TallFlyer said:
To quote myself:

My own personal prediction: if 170/175/700/900s were on mainline certificates with $40 first year FO pay, Captain rates maybe 20% above where they are now, and a 3-4 year equipment lock they'd staff them things forever, for two reasons:

1. In the short term, the 135 jet crowd, with their 13 days off a quarter and and being permanently tied to a phone, would be absolved of the indignity of working for a regional and instead have a much better path to the money and QOL that the Legacies provide.
2. In the longer term, prospective pilots could actually envision a career path that makes sense from a financial standpoint with regard to the investment involved.
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Agreed 100%. As part of that 135 crowd if this happened I know myself and MANY others wouldn't even think twice.
 
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Dan208B said:
Do you know what the cost of pilots is to an airline as a portion of their total cost structure? I don't, but I would like to find out. I've heard it's a VERY small percentage and I tend to believe it. Granted, every airline will be different but I bet the percentage of total costs is very similar for legacies.
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Total labor costs are usually either the highest or second highest cost for an airline, depending on what the price of jet fuel is in a given quarter. Back in the old days, labor was always the biggest cost. But oil was at $15/bbl then. Now fuel frequently beats labor as the biggest expense.

Regardless, labor is a huge cost to an airline, and pilots tend to be the biggest share of that total labor number. Labor also happens to be the only truly variable expense, which makes it the place where management goes when they need to make up for cost increases elsewhere.
 
I really think that if nothing changes the regionals will disappear over the next 5+ years. I think Delta is demonstrating that you can sacrificed frequency by sending a 717 or A320 into a smaller market and still come out on top.

There are a lot of senior guys at the regionals that are saying that regional flying is irreplaceable, but I think they need to start cracking on that degree. Just flying on the Delta system you see mainline jets absolutely everywhere that you used to see only RJs. The upside is that I think (again, baring any changes) that there will be a seat at the big kids table for anyone willing to put themselves in a position to be there.
 
Screaming_Emu said:
There are a lot of senior guys at the regionals that are saying that regional flying is irreplaceable, but I think they need to start cracking on that degree. Just flying on the Delta system you see mainline jets absolutely everywhere that you used to see only RJs. The upside is that I think (again, baring any changes) that there will be a seat at the big kids table for anyone willing to put themselves in a position to be there.
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WE CAN'T BE REPLACED....WE'RE TOO BIG!!!


Or.....There will ALWAYS be a market for 50 seat jets....until they time out and nobody is making new ones...


1-3 years later.....THEY TOOK ER JERBS!!!!


"Delta is taking our routes"
 
motormadness24 said:
WE CAN'T BE REPLACED....WE'RE TOO BIG!!!


Or.....There will ALWAYS be a market for 50 seat jets....until they time out and nobody is making new ones...


1-3 years later.....THEY TOOK ER JERBS!!!!


"Delta is taking our routes"
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"If only I was black or had tits I'd be at Delta by now!"

"Oh yeah? How long have you had your application in?"

"well...I mean...I still need to catch up on my logbook. What's the name of that website called again?"
 
Nick said:
How can an airline retire more than 100% of it's current workforce?
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His data is only from open sources that is probably not current and/or completely accurate and that has skewed the AA retirement line above 100%. There is probably a 2 year margin of error for when AA hits 100%. However, none of that doesn't change the basic fact that sometime 15 years from now, virtually every pilot at AA/US will be playing golf or fishing.

All of those numbers assume that every pilot will stay until they hit 65 which is highly unlikely. I had an AA jumpseater on a flight a few weeks ago who was a CA on the MD-80 who said that he is going to retire at 63 when the planes finally head for the desert.
 
ATN_Pilot said:
Total labor costs are usually either the highest or second highest cost for an airline, depending on what the price of jet fuel is in a given quarter. Back in the old days, labor was always the biggest cost. But oil was at $15/bbl then. Now fuel frequently beats labor as the biggest expense.

Regardless, labor is a huge cost to an airline, and pilots tend to be the biggest share of that total labor number. Labor also happens to be the only truly variable expense, which makes it the place where management goes when they need to make up for cost increases elsewhere.
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No one really ever mentions the airlines pushing the FAA enough to have them approve the MPL here in the US. Do you think if times get tough this will ever happen? Was there any talk of it when you were at your airline?
 
bc2209 said:
No one really ever mentions the airlines pushing the FAA enough to have them approve the MPL here in the US. Do you think if times get tough this will ever happen? Was there any talk of it when you were at your airline?
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It's something that was discussed as a coming issue when I was at ALPA. Especially around the 2009 time frame when the ALPA MPL policy was developed. It's probably inevitable, but still sometime down the line.
 
bc2209 said:
No one really ever mentions the airlines pushing the FAA enough to have them approve the MPL here in the US. Do you think if times get tough this will ever happen? Was there any talk of it when you were at your airline?
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I know that everyone brings up MCPL as a solution to the pilot "shortage" but I just don't see how it will really help.

The only way MCPL will work is for the airlines to pay the bill. This works in Asia because those kids are under 20 year contracts with the airline that is paying for their flight school. However, there is no way a 10+ year training contract will hold up in US courts.

Also the ATP requirement will have to be repealed before MCPL has even the remotest chance.
 
USMCmech said:
I know that everyone brings up MCPL as a solution to the pilot "shortage" but I just don't see how it will really help.

The only way MCPL will work is for the airlines to pay the bill. This works in Asia because those kids are under 20 year contracts with the airline that is paying for their flight school. However, there is no way a 10+ year training contract will hold up in US courts.

Also the ATP requirement will have to be repealed before MCPL has even the remotest chance.
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There are certain companies in China who contract their pilots for 90 years. Literally 90 years.
 
ATN_Pilot said:
It's something that was discussed as a coming issue when I was at ALPA. Especially around the 2009 time frame when the ALPA MPL policy was developed. It's probably inevitable, but still sometime down the line.
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USMCmech said:
I know that everyone brings up MCPL as a solution to the pilot "shortage" but I just don't see how it will really help.

The only way MCPL will work is for the airlines to pay the bill. This works in Asia because those kids are under 20 year contracts with the airline that is paying for their flight school. However, there is no way a 10+ year training contract will hold up in US courts.

Also the ATP requirement will have to be repealed before MCPL has even the remotest chance.
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I'll use you gentlemen's comments to quote a post I read on another board:

I'd lump the MPL (literally) with tofurkey. It looks like a turkey, but isn't.

One thing a real turkey could do though is fly by itself.
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chrisreedrules said:
And at the very least there will be continuous movement. Anyone hired in the next 5-10 years will enjoy a nice career at a legacy.
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I would say anyone hired in 5-10 years will end up being junior for a long time. Just IMO.

Just like anything the time to get on board is just as the wave is building, not cresting.

That's why I feel for all these new hires and their flow dreams. It would've been nice to experience the growth at my regional like they are but they're going to be junior at mainline for a long time...
 
TallFlyer said:
To quote myself:

My own personal prediction: if 170/175/700/900s were on mainline certificates with $40 first year FO pay, Captain rates maybe 20% above where they are now, and a 3-4 year equipment lock they'd staff them things forever, for two reasons:

1. In the short term, the 135 jet crowd, with their 13 days off a quarter and and being permanently tied to a phone, would be absolved of the indignity of working for a regional and instead have a much better path to the money and QOL that the Legacies provide.
2. In the longer term, prospective pilots could actually envision a career path that makes sense from a financial standpoint with regard to the investment involved.
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"Indignity," eh?

I won't say everything is awesome, in fact, far from it, but I get 11-15 off a month and never answer the phone.
 
Screaming_Emu said:
I really think that if nothing changes the regionals will disappear over the next 5+ years. I think Delta is demonstrating that you can sacrificed frequency by sending a 717 or A320 into a smaller market and still come out on top.

There are a lot of senior guys at the regionals that are saying that regional flying is irreplaceable, but I think they need to start cracking on that degree. Just flying on the Delta system you see mainline jets absolutely everywhere that you used to see only RJs. The upside is that I think (again, baring any changes) that there will be a seat at the big kids table for anyone willing to put themselves in a position to be there.
Click to expand...

I've heard this for years. Not to say the regional industry won't change dramatically, but many markets will be a smaller jet or nothing. We would not see 175s being fielded if they were looking at 5 years of use. Now if you are talking 10-15 years, maybe. But with 13 years of flying left I see the impact on me as minimal.
Also I would point out that many of the dinosaurs at regionals have degrees. Many probably had applications in with the majors when Pan Am was still the place to go. Heck, I know a few that started out at Pan Am Express. Granted, some don't deserve to move on. I'm sure you've flown with a few of them. Some just have not had the breaks. Perhaps some have a trivial violation or some other skeleton. Many reasons.
Also don't forget that when these regionals go under it is not just the pilots who will be out on the street. Remember that the next time you see the CP's secretary.
 
Blackhawk said:
I've heard this for years. Not to say the regional industry won't change dramatically, but many markets will be a smaller jet or nothing. We would not see 175s being fielded if they were looking at 5 years of use. Now if you are talking 10-15 years, maybe. But with 13 years of flying left I see the impact on me as minimal.
Also I would point out that many of the dinosaurs at regionals have degrees. Many probably had applications in with the majors when Pan Am was still the place to go. Heck, I know a few that started out at Pan Am Express. Granted, some don't deserve to move on. I'm sure you've flown with a few of them. Some just have not had the breaks. Perhaps some have a trivial violation or some other skeleton. Many reasons.
Also don't forget that when these regionals go under it is not just the pilots who will be out on the street. Remember that the next time you see the CP's secretary.
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You've been hearing it for years, but only now are we actually reaching a point where circumstances make it a reality.
 
Screaming_Emu said:
You've been hearing it for years, but only now are we actually reaching a point where circumstances make it a reality.
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Maybe, maybe not. They aren't making any more 717's though I guess some other aircraft may fill the nitch.
Also cost of pilots is a factor. Better pay rates are great, but at some point it may become too expensive to run that 717 on some routes.
Cost/seat/mile is less with a larger airplane, but cost/leg is less on the smaller airplane. Sometimes the smaller one makes sense, but in some cases no airplane is cost effective.
Again, I've been reading about how the RJ was going away since the day it came out. I've seen "a few" airline predictions be wrong, which is why I will go so far as to say the regional industry will change but not predict it will go away. Heck, if you had told me 15 years ago ACA and Comair would be gone but TSA would still be hanging around Id have told you you were nuts.
 
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