121 Retirements
- Thread starter TallFlyer
- Start date
Blackhawk
Well-Known Member
Yes, the numbers are there. One of the unanswered questions, however, is how elastic ticket prices will be to support higher wages for pilots. With the large number of pilots retiring there will be a demand for pilots at the majors. Many (most), of these pilots will come from regionals. As the pool of qualified pilots dries up the cost of hiring/retaining pilots will also go up. As the cost increases, however, many thinner markets may become unsustainable. These markets will not be taken up by legacy carriers- in most cases they will just go away until demand/cost are in balance again.
I like your comment in the other thread. Who knows where this will lead.
I like your comment in the other thread. Who knows where this will lead.
Dan208B
Well-Known Member
Do you know what the cost of pilots is to an airline as a portion of their total cost structure? I don't, but I would like to find out. I've heard it's a VERY small percentage and I tend to believe it. Granted, every airline will be different but I bet the percentage of total costs is very similar for legacies.
mastermags
Well-Known Member *giggity*
I can't speak for the other carriers, but currently SJI is about 65% above the mandatory numbers. Many guys have no intention of going to 65.
Seggy
Well-Known Member
I disagree.
You will see more flying shifted from the smaller aircraft to larger mainline aircraft fleets. They will need to add aircraft and pilots to cover that increase.
Blackhawk
Well-Known Member
I don't think you understand how thin the margins are on many routes and the idea of ROI/ROIC. If the margins are thin on a route a small increase in the cost makes it either unprofitable or makes the profit so small that it is not worth the investment. Why do you think many markets were dropped after the turboprops went away?
Blackhawk
Well-Known Member
Some, but not nearly one for one. Many markets will not be profitable with larger aircraft and will go away.
Seggy
Well-Known Member
The net net is smaller regional but larger mainline fleets.
mastermags
Well-Known Member *giggity*
That's ok.
Blackhawk
Well-Known Member
We don't know for sure, but probably not. Again, one need only look at the many cities that use to have turboprop service but lost it.
To quote myself:
My own personal prediction: if 170/175/700/900s were on mainline certificates with $40 first year FO pay, Captain rates maybe 20% above where they are now, and a 3-4 year equipment lock they'd staff them things forever, for two reasons:
1. In the short term, the 135 jet crowd, with their 13 days off a quarter and and being permanently tied to a phone, would be absolved of the indignity of working for a regional and instead have a much better path to the money and QOL that the Legacies provide.
2. In the longer term, prospective pilots could actually envision a career path that makes sense from a financial standpoint with regard to the investment involved.
chrisreedrules
Master Blaster
I think mainline will fight to maintain a presence in many of the smaller markets. Because if they don't, they will essentially be giving those markets away to an LCC or another lower-overhead airline. And once gone, I don't know that they would be able to get it back. The smartest policy for mainline is going to be to try and staff their regional's as long as feasible, buying time to plan on absorbing flying back to mainline. Then once regional's begin to fail (and they will), mainline will be forced into absorbing the flying.
mastermags
Well-Known Member *giggity*
Small markets tend to be smaller risk than hub growth. The LCCs are aggressively clawing their way into legacy hubs now. Spirit's huge growth spurt trying to take advantage of the AA bankruptcy (with huge growth in FLL, ORD, and DFW), Frontier and Spirit trying to cash in on WN's troubles in ATL, etc. Without a strong presence in major markets, the small markets will be an oversight.
Hacker15e
Who am I? Where are my pants?
Oh, I totally agree that is the trend...I was just saying that the numbers in the graphs assume static staffing numbers, which I don't believe are going to remain that way, for better or worse. The graphs have to be taken in context.
Those figures are based on the sum of older LAA and LUS retirement lists, and the total pilots currently at AA per APC.
If someone has more recent data I'd be happy to replot it.
chrisreedrules
Master Blaster
And at the very least there will be continuous movement. Anyone hired in the next 5-10 years will enjoy a nice career at a legacy.