Delta's Hiring Freeze and Q4 Loss

Seggy said:
The more frequency thing goes completely out the window when you have 2+ hour flow delays into LGA, ATL, PHL, JFK, EWR, ORD on pretty daily bases. Do they need 7 or 8 daily flights from LGA to MHT?

There will be a point when they come to understand this. I think they are already with some of the USAIRWAYS stuff out of LGA.
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There is no 2 hr flow delay when you sell the seat - which is where frequency is marketed. If an airline has flights at 6:00, 9:00, 12:00 15:00 etc. on 50 seaters, and it's competitors have flights at 6:00 and 15:00 on a 757 then one of 2 things is going to happen:

- there is so much traffic that the 50 seaters AND the 757s fly full
- not so much traffic, and only people for whom 6:00 and 15:00 are convenient times might fly the 757, everybody else tries to get on the convenient flight.

Now the reality that they all get delayed, cancelled and blown to hell and beyond schedule-wise is a future event. In theory people would figure that out and change their behaviour - but in practice many of the seats are sold to 3-4 times a year flyers, and they don't change their behaviour - they want cheap and frequent.

You keep hearing the theory that "bigger planes better" but the fact of the matter is it's only true as it reflects on the OPERATION of an airline - and funnily enough airlines are not in the business of OPERATING an airline they're in the business of TRANSPORTING people - a fact thst often gets lost in the confusion.
 
SmitteyB said:
Actually- I think he's right on the dot. 50 seat RJ's were only economical when fuel prices were low and profits were high.

We'll see..
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But you're looking at this all wrong - RJs in general, in fact pretty much all feeder service, is not profitable on a revenue basis per segment - but without the feeders you can't fill the 777 with paying passengers.

So - if you have a market that has a need for 45 seats a flight and a significant majority of those people are making on-going connections then those passengers and that marketplace may well be profitable, albeit the RJ segment in and of itself is not.

Now if that market is for 65 seats you need a 70 seater, but if the market is for 45 seats then you've got to make a choice - run a 50 seat (jet for preference, passengers like jets) or run nothing at all and abandon the market. The legacies exist and survive by having a comprehensive service to a significant number of markets. You can argue that's a dead model and they should be cherry picking their trips like SouthWest used to do, but that's their current model - and that model needs a variety of aircraft of varying capacity to service the various markets. As prices go up due to fuel, capacity reduction etc. fewer people will fly and the markets currently served by 70 seat jets will transition back to 50 seat jets, and the markets served by 120 seat jets will transition to 70 seat jets and THAT is where the mainline erosion comes from.

The airline business is full of people who are unable to learn from history, despite the fact that it keeps happening to them again and again. The airline business is cyclical, has been, is now and always will be. What once was will come again - buy 50 seat jets now, be ahead of the curve! :-)
 
I'd have to say a majority of our routes are probably profitable. It's rare to see a plane with fewer than 40 people on it at Pinnacle. More often than not I hear the dread "This flight is an oversold condition" spiel as I'm looking at the release at the gate.
 
kellwolf said:
I'd have to say a majority of our routes are probably profitable. It's rare to see a plane with fewer than 40 people on it at Pinnacle. More often than not I hear the dread "This flight is an oversold condition" spiel as I'm looking at the release at the gate.
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Replace a majority of those flights with 700s and I bet those routes are not "probably profitable" but "very profitable":)
 
Doug Taylor said:
I made the joke one day: "So do actually remember PROP recurrent?"

Could have heard a pin drop.
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Ahh, great minds think alike!

Every time one of them says "Jet Recurrent" I ask "when's the last time Southernjets had props, any way?"

I usually get the "dog-watching-TV" look...LOL...

Gotta love Ancestor Worship!



Kevin
 
Seggy said:
Beech 1900s and Saab 340s
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3 people? I highly doubt that, not to discredit you though.

To consider the cost of the ticket for three folks then have that cover SG&A, maintenance, crew, fuel, and any other recurring expense associated with the flight then, pull out a profit? I just cant see it.
 
You blind.

You can't see.

You need to wear some glasses like DMC.
 
Hear that sizzle?

That's the sound of that dagblasted "Meow Mix" song burning into my brain! Aaaeeeigh!
 
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