Actually, being "Eligible" for pilot training is easier than ever. Just one eample: I was disqualified for my eyes. Now they let you have laser surgery.
The point is, if you were say, A C-17 Pilot in Charleston with 10 years in and close to Major, would you take the $120-some grand bonus(Think that is what it currently is) or go off to fly for a major that is bankrupt still?
Would you throw away complete stability, full medical and dental, and the opportunity to do fun flying all over the world, just to be an airline pilot? I mean, look at pay rates in the military. They are not bad anymore, especially considering most everything is paid for you (Housing, cheap food, entertainment, etc...).
Some do go, but most stay and get at least their twenty, and nice 50% retirement pay, full medical for life......See where I am going?
I think it was smart of the military to try and better retain their pilots. The amount of money they put into them to leave after 6 years for the airlines was ridiculous.
The picture isn't really that rosy...it's more that guys on Active Duty see how crappy it is relative to the Majors right now!
A few rudder corrections to your post. First off, the first USAF pilot with a 10-year commitment hasn't even hit the end of his initial service commitment (that change from 8 years to 10 years occurred in late 1999 or early 2000). I was one of the last of the 8-year commitments and my hitch is up this summer...so the impact of raising the commitment length won't start to impact USAF pilot retention until FY09.
The "pilot bonus" has been a $25K per-year-for-5-years deal in recent years. That comes out to just under $90,000 after taxes, payable in about $18K per year payments. Not a single USAF pilot that I personally know has been swayed by that payment. Either they're going to stay in anyway and say, "hey, free money!", or they're going to get out anyway and don't care about the money (more on that later).
Recall that the "Force Shaping" initiatives over the last two years have also PAID some specific types of pilots to
get out of the USAF. Specifically, some airlift types (C-130 guys and C-17 guys) were paid upwards of $140,000 to get out of their commitments early. There are a lot of questionmarks among rank-and-file pilots who don't understand why the USAF is doing that to the airlift community, which is busy as hell supporting the GWOT. Unfortunately the fighter community was not offered any of the voluntary separation pay -- I know several guys who would have taken the money and ran.
So, back to my initial point about military guys NOT currently flocking to the airlines in droves. When I initially got into the USAF, I heard guys who had been military pilots and gone to the airlines say, "Get out as soon as you can...every day you stay in is a seniority number lost!". Well, all that has completely changed. In my previous squadron I flew with a number of reservists who were furloughed Majors pilots -- to a T they all said "you're stupid if you don't stay in until 20." That is a HUGE change.
The primary reason is because of the relative instability of the industry over the last 5 years. As mentioned, military pilot pay is decent (I have been flying for 8 years and I make around $80K if you add in all the benefits), benefits are relatively good, and "stability" (as in, you're probably not going to get furloughed) is good for the first 10 years.
The factors driving guys to want to leave are primarily the operations tempo. Guys are spending more and more time away from home at deployed locations. This is NOT like spending time away from home as an airline pilot -- this is spending time away from home in gigantic blocks of time, from 4 months all the way up to a year at a time. It's interesting the first or second time you do it. The third or fourth it's not nearly as exciting and the "patriotism" has worn off a little bit.
As for me, I'm undecided what I'm going to do. I have several more months until I have to decide if I want to take the bonus or not. If I do, it means I'm going to tough it out all the way to 20 and get that pension-in-the-sky and the medical benefits (that keep eroding every year -- thanks, Congress). If not, I'll just be another ex-fighter punk trying to get an interview somewhere and support my family in the mean time.