The math for quitting FedEx to go to United

[Autothrust Blue]

You thought UPS was “just a trucking company that had some airplanes”. FedEx asks you to hold their beer…..

Oddly enough, Spirit Airlines was a literal trucking company that bought airplanes, so

 

[JordanD]

As an Office Space fan, the return of Loudermilk for a fourth season makes me happy.


View: https://youtu.be/GCjOj6jTNjs

I was not expecting that show to be as good as it was. Kind of gives me Ted Lasso vibes to an extent.

 

[Pilot Fighter]

I was not expecting that show to be as good as it was. Kind of gives me Ted Lasso vibes to an extent.

I can see that. 20 minutes of light comedy and then 30 seconds that hits hard.

 

[ZapBrannigan]

Are you writing the forward to the career memoirs of JCs ZapBrannigan, with this?

Whoa... whoa... whoa. Hold on there buddy.

I made a grand total of ONE job change in pursuit of greener grass. EVERY SINGLE OTHER change I made was a result of a furlough, a downsizing, or the operator going out of business.

I'm willing to admit that some of my choices turned out poorly, but I made the best decisions I could based on the information I had at the time.

 

[arkflyr]

EVERY SINGLE OTHER change I made was a result of a furlough, a downsizing, or the operator going out of business.

Not to change the subject but on a similar note I just got back from CQ and the captain I was paired up with was an ‘89 hire from USAir. Like all the pilots I’ve flown with from there he was great and we had an awesome time.

 

[Maurus]

I think there are legitimately bad (in the sense of “literally dumb/shooting one’s own bits off” or perhaps “willfully ignorant” or even “reckless”) career decisions you can make, but based on what you’ve described I don’t think either you or OP have made any of them. I’ve watched some people make them; this doesn’t appear to be that.

You are correct. I would not consider all my choices to be bad like you describe. Just that 20/20 stuff kicking in. I guess rather than saying that they were bad it would be better to say they were the incorrect choices. Of course based on the information I had at the time my decisions were perfectly reasonable for the most part. That is why I don't stress about it.

That said I have had some luck in my career. I was interviewed at my current shop not long after hiring started after covid and I am already more than 1/4 up the seniority list. Absolutely insane. This career really is a dice roll. I'm sure there are more rolls of the dice to come but so far most have been in my favor.

 

[Autothrust Blue]

You are correct. I would not consider all my choices to be bad like you describe. Just that 20/20 stuff kicking in. I guess rather than saying that they were bad it would be better to say they were the incorrect choices. Of course based on the information I had at the time my decisions were perfectly reasonable for the most part. That is why I don't stress about it.

That said I have had some luck in my career. I was interviewed at my current shop not long after hiring started after covid and I am already more than 1/4 up the seniority list. Absolutely insane. This career really is a dice roll. I'm sure there are more rolls of the dice to come but so far most have been in my favor.

Pretty pissed at the hands of blue showing up and wrecking an otherwise good deal, myself; knowing that that was to happen I would have leapt sooner, but whatever.

 

[MikeD]

Whoa... whoa... whoa. Hold on there buddy.

I made a grand total of ONE job change in pursuit of greener grass. EVERY SINGLE OTHER change I made was a result of a furlough, a downsizing, or the operator going out of business.

I'm willing to admit that some of my choices turned out poorly, but I made the best decisions I could based on the information I had at the time.

That’s what I’m referring to, the timing of events in your career and the results of same. Not necessarily your personal actions regarding it. Just like how @CFI A&P referenced.

 

[WacoFan]

That’s what I’m referring to, the timing of events in your career and the results of same. Not necessarily your personal actions regarding it. Just like how @CFI A&P referenced.

That's exactly how I meant my Zap comment as well - there are too many vagaries in the airline business as it is (per Zap). Seems the best course is to grab a Seniority number at a stable'ish place and hang on.

 

[CFI A&P]

That’s what I’m referring to, the timing of events in your career and the results of same. Not necessarily your personal actions regarding it. Just like how @CFI A&P referenced.

Same here, not my intention to throw shade or anything. That story is a great example of the roller coaster that is this industry. Ebbs and flows, hiring booms and furloughs, etc.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Same here, not my intention to throw shade or anything. That story is a great example of the roller coaster that is this industry. Ebbs and flows, hiring booms and furloughs, etc.

Nothing against Gypsy Pilot and I'm sure he's been doing this longer, but I am curious what percent of the 121 pilots today would you say started in 2014-present at a 121 regional/major/legacy? By that I mean, started at their first 121 airline as a newbie in 2014 to present time?

Would you say a half? I honestly don't know, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is - maybe more?


And just how much ebb, flow, hiring, and furloughs have THESE people experienced? They saw nothing but good times in the greatest hiring boom of aviation. Covid was their FIRST and only blip on the radar, and unless you were at a place like Compass (already going out), TSA, Expressjet (already going out), most nearly ALL carriers did just fine once they got PSP. Yeah yeah, before we knew PSP was a done deal, we were looking at furloughing ~30% of the industry pilots. But once the bailouts, loans, and PSP were approved in April 2020 and Octoberish 2020, and then another bailout after Biden came into office, it was well clear that we wouldn't be in the same down turn as 2001 or 2008-2010.


So no, I don't buy your assertion. I think there's a HUGE swath of 121 pilots today that have no clue what a real downturn and furlough situation looks like.

 

[mikecweb]

Nothing against Gypsy Pilot and I'm sure he's been doing this longer, but I am curious what percent of the 121 pilots today would you say started in 2014-present at a 121 regional/major/legacy? By that I mean, started at their first 121 airline as a newbie in 2014 to present time?

Would you say a half? I honestly don't know, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is - maybe more?


And just how much ebb, flow, hiring, and furloughs have THESE people experienced? They saw nothing but good times in the greatest hiring boom of aviation. Covid was their FIRST and only blip on the radar, and unless you were at a place like Compass (already going out), TSA, Expressjet (already going out), most nearly ALL carriers did just fine once they got PSP. Yeah yeah, before we knew PSP was a done deal, we were looking at furloughing ~30% of the industry pilots. But once the bailouts, loans, and PSP were approved in April 2020 and Octoberish 2020, and then another bailout after Biden came into office, it was well clear that we wouldn't be in the same down turn as 2001 or 2008-2010.


So no, I don't buy your assertion. I think there's a HUGE swath of 121 pilots today that have no clue what a real downturn and furlough situation looks like.

Over half the FedEx pilot group was hired after 2015.

 

[Maurus]

Over half the FedEx pilot group was hired after 2015.

That is pretty crazy. Especially since I have seen the projected seniority progression for new hires. What I saw showed FedEx movement being pretty linear. I wouldn't expect that with so many hired in such a short period of time.

Guess they diversified the age of pilots during that time quite well.

 

[CFI A&P]

Nothing against Gypsy Pilot and I'm sure he's been doing this longer, but I am curious what percent of the 121 pilots today would you say started in 2014-present at a 121 regional/major/legacy? By that I mean, started at their first 121 airline as a newbie in 2014 to present time?

Would you say a half? I honestly don't know, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is - maybe more?


And just how much ebb, flow, hiring, and furloughs have THESE people experienced? They saw nothing but good times in the greatest hiring boom of aviation. Covid was their FIRST and only blip on the radar, and unless you were at a place like Compass (already going out), TSA, Expressjet (already going out), most nearly ALL carriers did just fine once they got PSP. Yeah yeah, before we knew PSP was a done deal, we were looking at furloughing ~30% of the industry pilots. But once the bailouts, loans, and PSP were approved in April 2020 and Octoberish 2020, and then another bailout after Biden came into office, it was well clear that we wouldn't be in the same down turn as 2001 or 2008-2010.


So no, I don't buy your assertion. I think there's a HUGE swath of 121 pilots today that have no clue what a real downturn and furlough situation looks like.

Didn’t you start at your current airline, a major, around 2011?

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Didn’t you start at your current airline, a major, around 2011?

I said first entry into 121.

My entry was Oct 2007 at my regional. 2 months later, Age 67 went into effect. Less than 12 mos later, the GFC which was 2008-2010ish. 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and even 2012. Solid years of virtually no hiring at the big boys. AA, no hiring. UA, furloughs. Delta hired about 300 (?) in 2010 and that was it. Now granted, it was hard to define the big boys because they were merging at this time. 2008 Delta/NWA. 2010(ish) Continental/United. Airtran/Southwest too. And then US Airways/American. I still remember AA opened their window late 2013, I believe November. I know because I applied that very first night and the whole system crashed. Yes, crashed. There was just that much interest in AA. Or anyone big for that matter. YEARS of no hiring at those airlines left many pilots on the sidelines just waiting.

In 2008-2012, the game in town (and hardly a game, still more like slim pickings) were jetBlue, Spirit, and Virgin America. Can't comment on Frontier or Allegiant back in those years, but I imagine they were about the same.

The "real" big boy hiring didn't start until 2014. So my point was anyone who entered into 121 flying at 2014 or later, has seen only the good times. Covid was a mere blip that didn't even in result in anything solidly bad (barring a few regional carriers). If anything, we let tons of seniors retire early and created a huge lack of pilots which led to MASSIVE hiring.


If you *entered* a 121 in 2014 or later, you haven't seen the true hard times. Just sayin'

 

[Ian_J]

Or you bailed from the industry completely in 2008, did something different, and avoided the whole mess!

 

[CFI A&P]

I said first entry into 121.

My entry was Oct 2007 at my regional. 2 months later, Age 67 went into effect. Less than 12 mos later, the GFC which was 2008-2010ish. 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and even 2012. Solid years of virtually no hiring at the big boys. AA, no hiring. UA, furloughs. Delta hired about 300 (?) in 2010 and that was it. Now granted, it was hard to define the big boys because they were merging at this time. 2008 Delta/NWA. 2010(ish) Continental/United. Airtran/Southwest too. And then US Airways/American. I still remember AA opened their window late 2013, I believe November. I know because I applied that very first night and the whole system crashed. Yes, crashed. There was just that much interest in AA. Or anyone big for that matter. YEARS of no hiring at those airlines left many pilots on the sidelines just waiting.

In 2008-2012, the game in town (and hardly a game, still more like slim pickings) were jetBlue, Spirit, and Virgin America. Can't comment on Frontier or Allegiant back in those years, but I imagine they were about the same.

The "real" big boy hiring didn't start until 2014. So my point was anyone who entered into 121 flying at 2014 or later, has seen only the good times. Covid was a mere blip that didn't even in result in anything solidly bad (barring a few regional carriers). If anything, we let tons of seniors retire early and created a huge lack of pilots which led to MASSIVE hiring.


If you *entered* a 121 in 2014 or later, you haven't seen the true hard times. Just sayin'

6 years, really? You're going to pound your chest and distinguish yourself as a veteran that has experienced 'hard times' ?

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

6 years, really? You're going to pound your chest and distinguish yourself as a veteran that has experienced 'hard times' ?

Veteran and distinguished? Absolutely not.


But have I seen and worked through Age 65 and GFC years at a 121 airline? Yes. Absolutely.


Fact: Those who started at regionals or majors (first entry point into 121) in 2014 or later did not have the same journey. Their journey was nothing but up, up, and away, with some of the highest pay in the history of aviation.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

And if you want any more examples, just head to APC. Example, Envoy guy complaining in the thread titled "if you want AA, don't come here."

His complaints are of AA taking a slower time with the flow guys and hiring in the meantime off the street with pilots at other carriers. Said guy has only 700 hrs at Envoy and already has a CJO at Southwest and one foot out the door of Envoy.


Envoy? I knew it as American Eagle Airlines - a 10 yr upgrade just to hit the left seat after the flowbacks. How times changed. How quickly people feel owed and slighted in this market. They forget how it used to be, how it was, and how it always has been.


But here's a guy who's really suffering.............................


"
All of us that joined the regional FO ranks in the last 12-24 months are in a different world, not of our creation, just blind luck of timing. This legacy hiring frenzy, AA peaks last, will peak in the next 12-36 months and calm down (age 67 will affect this somewhat). "Flow" is over 6 years.

Of my new hire group, a couple of us absolutely hammered to get hours.. picked up extra, picked up when we go displaced, etc. One class mate hit 860 hours flown in his first 12 months.

None of us can get AA to talk to us. That's fine, I get it, there is a "flow"... don't rob Peter to pay Paul. BUT, AA is hiring people with lower qualifications/experience/resumes because they are somewhere else.

Two classmates (with about ~550 hrs) are already at SWA. I am at a little over 700 with a SWA CJO and class date. My class mate over 800 hours just got his UA CJO. Another class mate has DA and SWA interviews next week. AA won't talk to any of us so they are losing all of us."

 

[CFI A&P]

Veteran and distinguished? Absolutely not.

But here's a guy who's really suffering.............................

Says the guy that didn’t spend decades in the right seat….

Yes, the landscape in the last decade has been different than the historical norm, but don’t forget you’re also benefiting from those changes.