Ask 10 and receive 10 different answers…
There are still 150ish 07-08’ hires that haven’t upgraded yet, but there is progress being made there. So, you could say upgrades right now are 15 years and wouldn’t be incorrect, but it would also be somewhat of an inaccurate picture. NJ did not hire between 2009-2014, so after those 150 or so, upgrade times drop to 7 years (still a long time for some people)
There’s been a lot of growth over the past couple of years that seems to be continuing and, when considered with an aging pilot group, some super optimistic people think a relative new hire might upgrade in 5 years or so. More conservative guesses are closer to 10. Actual will probably end up somewhere in the middle.
To be sure, don’t come here for a quick upgrade — there are better places to go if that’s your primary motivation (F for example). I would say come here for the stability, pay, work rules, and ability to live essentially wherever you want and not commute. We have a great contract (IMO) and FOs can make a very good living here (though not really comparable to living in base for a major).
Also, don’t be mislead by the base salaries on ACP. They are only part of the compensation package.