I would be shocked if the bottom 15-20% at each major doesn’t get furloughed.
2020 DX Outlook With Coronavirus
- Thread starter westcoastDX
- Start date
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Luigi
Well-Known Member
Where I work I think enough people would be willing to do line shares (if the union or company allows) to keep the most people possible employed.
I’m hearing AA. I want to reiterate that just comes from a trusted source, and I have no hard information.
Hesitated to say at first, because I don’t want to start a panic, but I’m sure this will just be the first, if true.
I would be willing to drop a shift a week for a few months if it meant no one gets furloughed.
Flagship_dxer
Penske Material
Furloughing only really makes sense if the people furloughed will be out for at least a year and a half or more. Furloughing makes more sense when you have a younger workforce.
Right now, all the majors have a sizable population of pilots, dispatchers, flight attendants and mechanics that are at or approaching retirement age. The same majors also have their replacements currently in training or just finished training.
To furlough now when a large portion of the workgroups can (and in the pilots case will) retire at any moment is a bit short sighted. On the dispatch side, those still in the class or OJT would need to go through it again when re-called. Junior dispatchers tend to be the majority of those working midnights so if too many were furloughed, the company would need to pay out OT to cover the midnight desks that are staying open until the next bid happens.
As of now, it is not known how long or how bad this will get. I think management at all majors will be cautious about involuntary furloughs to avoid having to quickly re-call and re-train should flying start to return by early summer or if there is a retirement exodus this year or next.
One thing having a surplus now can do is allow for desks to be covered should the virus spread around the office.
Regionals typically see high attrition in general so while they may furlough, I don't see it lasting long as it wont take much for dispatchers to leave. Don't forget that cargo so far hasn't been forced into huge cuts so if UPS or supplementals hire then regionals will lose dispatchers.
Right now, all the majors have a sizable population of pilots, dispatchers, flight attendants and mechanics that are at or approaching retirement age. The same majors also have their replacements currently in training or just finished training.
To furlough now when a large portion of the workgroups can (and in the pilots case will) retire at any moment is a bit short sighted. On the dispatch side, those still in the class or OJT would need to go through it again when re-called. Junior dispatchers tend to be the majority of those working midnights so if too many were furloughed, the company would need to pay out OT to cover the midnight desks that are staying open until the next bid happens.
As of now, it is not known how long or how bad this will get. I think management at all majors will be cautious about involuntary furloughs to avoid having to quickly re-call and re-train should flying start to return by early summer or if there is a retirement exodus this year or next.
One thing having a surplus now can do is allow for desks to be covered should the virus spread around the office.
Regionals typically see high attrition in general so while they may furlough, I don't see it lasting long as it wont take much for dispatchers to leave. Don't forget that cargo so far hasn't been forced into huge cuts so if UPS or supplementals hire then regionals will lose dispatchers.
Regionals lose to mainline, who have all frozen hiring. Cargo will only have so many openings in the near future. I doubt we’ll see much hiring on the regional level in the near future. Some have even announced hiring freezes.
Dart_8992
Well-Known Member
UPS has indefinitely postponed their new hire class planned for June. They aren't being hurt nearly as bad as the Passenger Carriers, but the economy tanking will hurt in the long run. I don't foresee them hiring anytime soon unless this whole thing blows over before the summer.
Sheety Airrines
Well-Known Member
This virus won’t clear up by the beginning, middle, or end of the summer. I don’t want them to furlough cause I’ll be gone for sure, but don’t see anyway around it. The sun shining and warm temps will not stop it (look at Australia and the tropical regions of Asia..they have cases rapidly spreading despite summertime there.) we will see it go away when a majority of the population has seen the virus and has some form of immunity to it.
FlyinRyan92
Well-Known Member
Never forget that tough times are conquered by tough people. All of us in the aviation community should and always will be there for others. Everyone stay safe and keep the chin held high. Much respect to you all. Time always moves on and so shall we. Take care of your loved ones, friends, your fellow coworkers and most importantly, YOURSELVES.
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Delta Echo
Well-Known Member
Today all but 2 of my flights had less than 100 pax on board. The average count was 75.
KeyAndPeele
Well-Known Member
How many seats does the aircraft you dispatch normally have?
Delta Echo
Well-Known Member
156/176/180/189
757Geek
Well-Known Member
I don’t understand why everyone is assuming United is going to be the first to furlough, or is even going to furlough. From everything I’ve read, all airlines in the US are trying everything to keep from furloughing. I get that everyone in the industry is under a lot of stress due to the unprecedented nature of this, but can we stop spreading rumors? I’m sure those of you who are wanting to see blood spill will see some before this is over. Don’t worry, if someone furloughs everyone will know very quickly.
FlyingSioux1
Well-Known Member
I did the same after you did.
Sorry guys, I seem to have caused the virus.
Got to the airline I have been trying to get to after 7 years, was going to get a nice haul on the house I (was) going to sell in two months and use it as a downpayment on the next one, I just found out the wife is pregnant a month ago, yada yada yada.
When everything is going right in my life, the universe is always like nope, dont think so.
The CEO of the company I now work for is saying this is going to be worse than 9/11 on the industry, and my Uncle was furloughed by AA for over 10 years after that fateful day.
Oh well. I guess ill go get a job in construction or something, go back to school, and find a new career.
Got to the airline I have been trying to get to after 7 years, was going to get a nice haul on the house I (was) going to sell in two months and use it as a downpayment on the next one, I just found out the wife is pregnant a month ago, yada yada yada.
When everything is going right in my life, the universe is always like nope, dont think so.
The CEO of the company I now work for is saying this is going to be worse than 9/11 on the industry, and my Uncle was furloughed by AA for over 10 years after that fateful day.
Oh well. I guess ill go get a job in construction or something, go back to school, and find a new career.
who'swho
Don't hesitate. Penetrate!
Keep your chin up buddy. I was in the same situation when Comair closed. We'll all get through this, hopefully with sparkling clean asses.
