Result is out, I'm officially a bypasser. Bottom plug CA in SFO is junior to me.
I'll be 10 yrs flying for the airlines as of next month, never touched a left seat and this was my first chance. As much as I want to, the current family situation plus the transcon commute to reserve.
I think the worst part is seeing the 50ish (or more) upgrades this year, none were in NYC. And several NYC FOs senior to me who took the upgrade had to take it in SFO. That means at some point they are going to want to return as a NYC Captain. With the base capped, the only movement into the base as a CA is when someone retires or bids out west on purpose. This bid award had just one NY CA bid SFO, and that position was filled by a fairly senior already-CA from SFO. So for a NYC CA slot, I'd have to not only wait for any current SF or LA CA that wants NYC, but also all the FOs above me who also want NYC as a Captain. True, many don't want NYC CA for a reserve position and will pass that opportunity, but even then I still don't see me holding NYC Captain for a looooong time.
We still have one more CA bid for 6 upgrades this year, and then the upgrades for next year (5 new planes + 6 CA retirements). We have the contract coming out on Oct 29th and the SLI should be done by about mid-2018. Hopefully they'll have news for us in the NYC base early or mid 2018. I can only guess but given its current size I think it either has to expand in size (increase base cap) in order to get economic justification, or just outright close. No one knows. I think for now I'd bid SFO CA if I could hold a line. Most of the EWR/JFK overnights tend to go junior, so I can bid those kinds of trips and go home for the night every time I have those. The commute would suck, but at least I could score some home overnights. But the problem of upgrading into a line is that SFO CA line awards are unpredictable from one month to another. Some months, there may be 20+ involuntary reserves. The next, just 12 involuntary reserves. Some month as high as 25-30, others as low as 11-12. It'd hard to predict. The "safest" thing would be to wait until there are at least 20-25 CAs below. Or maybe bid right when one can hold a reserve schedule for 6 months and a regular line for about 6 months (~15 CAs below in base or so)? I don't know.
/end rant