How do determine if there is a hiring boom?

Cherokee_Cruiser said:
Not without multiple letters of rec and/or others seriously pulling for them. I'm talking applying out of the blue and getting called at all 3 in 2-4 weeks. That's a true hiring boom. And when for-fee pilot job fairs become obsolete as a result.

We're not even close.
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I don't think that there will ever be a time where one would be able to throw a half ass'd application with no recommendations in on a whim to a legacy and get a call within a month. If that happens, EVERY other airline has gone under and the big 3 are the only 3 left...

People with competitive backgrounds that break out from the crowd are getting calls within 2-4 weeks of applying from multiple legacies at the same time. The issue is that currently all of the legacies and SWA are going after the same type of competitive applicants and disregarding the rest, knows that if they don't hire them their competitors will. Once the pool of those start to shrink you'll see people with more typical application packages picked up, but the gem applicants (however a company defines that internally) are always going to be pulled to the front of the line. Until then, if an applicant doesn't stand out in a good way I wouldn't expect them to get picked up.

You've got to play the game by the rules if you want to play the game and win... unfortunately white male 45-60 year old RJ CA/FO with no: internal recs, face time with the company va meet and greets and job fairs, community service, military or civilian leadership/training backgrounds, are a dime a dozen right now. These applicants should have been at majors right already but were denied the opportunity thanks to the lost decade. Their applications probably haven't changed much over the last 10 years outside of flight hours to become more competitive and that's what is not helping them. Individuals with more well rounded application packages are blowing by them during the application process.

The new, HR driven hiring metrics have been been in effect for the last three years now. That's three years that many individuals have had to take steps to make their resume more competative and have chosen to wank about how they haven't been picked up with their current resume, that they feel should be good enough already, instead. The current rules of the hiring game are common knowledge, if individuals chose not to play by them then they should expect to sit on the sidelines. From the HR prospective, it's business not personal. Most pilots take HRs business pretty personally and that doesn't get them any further along either.
 
zippy said:
I don't think that there will ever be a time where one would be able to throw a half ass'd application with no recommendations in on a whim to a legacy and get a call within a month. If that happens, EVERY other airline has gone under and the big 3 are the only 3 left...

People with competitive backgrounds that break out from the crowd are getting calls within 2-4 weeks of applying from multiple legacies at the same time. The issue is that currently all of the legacies and SWA are going after the same type of competitive applicants and disregarding the rest, knows that if they don't hire them their competitors will. Once the pool of those start to shrink you'll see people with more typical application packages picked up, but the gem applicants (however a company defines that internally) are always going to be pulled to the front of the line. Until then, if an applicant doesn't stand out in a good way I wouldn't expect them to get picked up.

You've got to play the game by the rules if you want to play the game and win... unfortunately white male 45-60 year old RJ CA/FO with no: internal recs, face time with the company va meet and greets and job fairs, community service, military or civilian leadership/training backgrounds, are a dime a dozen right now. These applicants should have been at majors right already but were denied the opportunity thanks to the lost decade. Their applications probably haven't changed much over the last 10 years outside of flight hours to become more competitive and that's what is not helping them. Individuals with more well rounded application packages are blowing by them during the application process.

The new, HR driven hiring metrics have been been in effect for the last three years now. That's three years that many individuals have had to take steps to make their resume more competative and have chosen to wank about how they haven't been picked up with their current resume, that they feel should be good enough already, instead. The current rules of the hiring game are common knowledge, if individuals chose not to play by them then they should expect to sit on the sidelines. From the HR prospective, it's business not personal. Most pilots take HRs business pretty personally and that doesn't get them any further along either.
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You prove my point. It's not a true hiring boom as I described.


And no, it doesn't mean airlines went under and only 3 exist. I think you'll see the true hiring boom happen in the 2020 decade (maybe mid to late) with a lack of pilots coming through the pipeline, and the supply of regionals/LCCs/corporate/military already sucked into the legacy ranks and still not enough for making up retirement/growth plans.
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
You prove my point. It's not a true hiring boom as I described.


And no, it doesn't mean airlines went under and only 3 exist. I think you'll see the true hiring boom happen in the 2020 decade (maybe mid to late) with a lack of pilots coming through the pipeline, and the supply of regionals/LCCs/corporate/military already sucked into the legacy ranks and still not enough for making up retirement/growth plans.
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We're at the start of that boom right now. Demand for pilots increases wages will increase further which will help entice more individuals to enter the pipeline. I'm sure age 67 if not 70 will be in effect by then, as well as even further oversized 737s to slow the bleeding.

The Big 3 and FedEx/UPS will remain the most competitive companies to get on with. Those are the career destinations for everyone in the 121 system. That's not going to change. HR requirements aren't going to go away either unfortunately because the HR folk had the lost decade to build their little empires and they'll spend the rest of their existence defending them.

It's my personal opinion that we're going to see the regional airline model significantly shrink as companies that aren't wholly owned subsidiaries of the big 3 go under. We're also going to see the Big 3 go after the U/LCC market to regain market share which cause mergers on that level if oil prices haven't increased again and made that market unprofitable and companies start shutting down.

This next decade should be interesting, that's for sure.
 
zippy said:
I don't think that there will ever be a time where one would be able to throw a half ass'd application with no recommendations in on a whim to a legacy and get a call within a month. If that happens, EVERY other airline has gone under and the big 3 are the only 3 left...

People with competitive backgrounds that break out from the crowd are getting calls within 2-4 weeks of applying from multiple legacies at the same time. The issue is that currently all of the legacies and SWA are going after the same type of competitive applicants and disregarding the rest, knows that if they don't hire them their competitors will. Once the pool of those start to shrink you'll see people with more typical application packages picked up, but the gem applicants (however a company defines that internally) are always going to be pulled to the front of the line. Until then, if an applicant doesn't stand out in a good way I wouldn't expect them to get picked up.

You've got to play the game by the rules if you want to play the game and win... unfortunately white male 45-60 year old RJ CA/FO with no: internal recs, face time with the company va meet and greets and job fairs, community service, military or civilian leadership/training backgrounds, are a dime a dozen right now. These applicants should have been at majors right already but were denied the opportunity thanks to the lost decade. Their applications probably haven't changed much over the last 10 years outside of flight hours to become more competitive and that's what is not helping them. Individuals with more well rounded application packages are blowing by them during the application process.

The new, HR driven hiring metrics have been been in effect for the last three years now. That's three years that many individuals have had to take steps to make their resume more competative and have chosen to wank about how they haven't been picked up with their current resume, that they feel should be good enough already, instead. The current rules of the hiring game are common knowledge, if individuals chose not to play by them then they should expect to sit on the sidelines. From the HR prospective, it's business not personal. Most pilots take HRs business pretty personally and that doesn't get them any further along either.
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Sorry, but that's not true. I've done everything I can over the past couple years to make sure my application and resume standout.

I have a long history of volunteering with multiple organizations, I have an engineering degree with a high gpa from one of the best and most competitive engineering schools in the US, I've never failed a checkride, I've got LORs from every aviation employer in my past, I have multiple internal LORs with Delta, United, American, and FedEx. I've had my application(s) and resume reviewed by several well known professional consultants (Cage, etc.). I've also been a 121 CA for over 1.5 years now.

Finally, I've been to several job fairs to meet with recruiters, and been told "Everything looks great, keep doing what you're doing, you'll get called/emailed whatever.". My Delta app was scored at the end of last summer as well.

In short, I've pushed and prodded and done absolutely everything I can to try to get hired by a legacy. It has resulted in ZERO interviews and I have absolutely no idea why. But I certainly don't think the legacies have a shortage nor will they ever.
 
zippy said:
I don't think that there will ever be a time where one would be able to throw a half ass'd application with no recommendations in on a whim to a legacy and get a call within a month. If that happens, EVERY other airline has gone under and the big 3 are the only 3 left...

People with competitive backgrounds that break out from the crowd are getting calls within 2-4 weeks of applying from multiple legacies at the same time. The issue is that currently all of the legacies and SWA are going after the same type of competitive applicants and disregarding the rest, knows that if they don't hire them their competitors will. Once the pool of those start to shrink you'll see people with more typical application packages picked up, but the gem applicants (however a company defines that internally) are always going to be pulled to the front of the line. Until then, if an applicant doesn't stand out in a good way I wouldn't expect them to get picked up. .
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One of my buddies has put in an app, albeit a correctly done apps, to one of the Big 3 just to see if would go anywhere, didn't even know if he'd like to fly 121 or not. Never been to a job fair or anything, never flown a transport category jet, no internal rec. Figures flying a big airplane and going places sounds interesting. Gets a call within a couple weeks, interviews, and is hired. Figures he'll try it out and is enjoying it. That same story has played out in varying similarity circumstances, to a few guys who were former collegues. Quality candidates, good timing, interviewed well, or even some other factor(s) probably played a part.
 
MikeD said:
One of my buddies has put in an app, albeit a correctly done apps, to one of the Big 3 just to see if would go anywhere, didn't even know if he'd like to fly 121 or not. Never been to a job fair or anything, never flown a transport category jet, no internal rec. Figures flying a big airplane and going places sounds interesting. Gets a call within a couple weeks, interviews, and is hired. Figures he'll try it out and is enjoying it. That same story has played out in varying similarity circumstances, to a few guys who were former collegues. Quality candidates, good timing, interviewed well, or even some other factor(s) probably played a part.
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That's the kind of stuff that is driving me crazy... Doesn't really care, gets a call anyway.

It feels like I'm in the dating world again... If I do get an email invite, should I wait three days before responding?? ;)
 
GypsyPilot said:
That's the kind of stuff that is driving me crazy... Doesn't really care, gets a call anyway.

It feels like I'm in the dating world again... If I do get an email invite, should I wait three days before responding?? ;)
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A few of the guys wanted to get on at my agency, but you had to be dual rated FW/RW, which none were. So 121 was a second choice for a flying job. :)

Like the dating world :)
 
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GypsyPilot said:
That's the kind of stuff that is driving me crazy... Doesn't really care, gets a call anyway.

It feels like I'm in the dating world again... If I do get an email invite, should I wait three days before responding?? ;)
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A guy I fly with only published his airline apps because he likes his job and wants to stay for as long as possible but his wife doesn't and has been pressuring him to leave. He figures he can tell her he's trying to get hired and milk another couple years out of the job. Well, he gets interview invites from SWA, United and Delta within a month and figures he can't just tell them he accidentally hit "send" on the application so he's turning down SWA (since they turned him down years ago) and going to the legacy interviews. He figures he's got a 50/50 shot at getting picked up at one of the legacies and he'll be leaving the job he enjoys within the next quarter to make his wife happy.
 
zippy said:
A guy I fly with only published his airline apps because he likes his job and wants to stay for as long as possible but his wife doesn't and has been pressuring him to leave. He figures he can tell her he's trying to get hired and milk another couple years out of the job. Well, he gets interview invites from SWA, United and Delta within a month and figures he can't just tell them he accidentally hit "send" on the application so he's turning down SWA (since they turned him down years ago) and going to the legacy interviews. He figures he's got a 50/50 shot at getting picked up at one of the legacies and he'll be leaving the job he enjoys within the next quarter to make his wife happy.
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Could always get rid of the wife and be happy.
 
GypsyPilot said:
You guys are really aren't making me feel better, ha ha. Geez what a crazy career this has been. Unbelievable sometimes.
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FWIW, You and I (and a few others) are in the exact same boat. You are not alone.

I know it's of very little consolation, but seriously, KEEP DOING WHAT YOU'RE DOING. It WILL pay off!!!

Or quit. One less guy in front of me!!! J/K.

;)
 
MikeD said:
Would it help to know one of the guys I'm talking about is a career F-16 guy with about as much multiengine time as a fresh ERAU grad finishes school with? :)
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Military puts you in a whole 'nuther category. The guy I got my BMW from was 34, just applied on pilotcredentials.com and didn't know anybody at AA. Heard back very quickly, interviewed, and was hired.

I got a chuckle out of the AA application under the 'Demographic' section. It asked for birth year, gender, and ethnic group (all of which are fine for demographics). And then one more question:

Are you now or have you ever been a Fighter Pilot?




I just found it curious. Not bomber pilot. Not transport. Not multi-crew. Just "fighter pilot"
 
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GypsyPilot said:
Sorry, but that's not true. I've done everything I can over the past couple years to make sure my application and resume standout.

In short, I've pushed and prodded and done absolutely everything I can to try to get hired by a legacy. It has resulted in ZERO interviews and I have absolutely no idea why. But I certainly don't think the legacies have a shortage nor will they ever.
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I think it's pretty simply why you haven't gotten a call. It sounds like you're a great candidate but there are thousands and thousands doing the same thing as you. Last time I checked there were about 21,000 total regional pilots and my guess would be about 12,000 have active apps and at least 5,000 are upper tier applicants like yourself. Also, maybe a thousand plus from the LCC's are in the same boat too. Sure, DAL and UAL have been hiring a lot but a significant amount, if not more than half of these jobs have gone to military candidates. I think your odds will be better in 2017 with AA/UPS/FedEx also ramping up hiring.
 
GypsyPilot said:
Sorry, but that's not true. I've done everything I can over the past couple years to make sure my application and resume standout.

I have a long history of volunteering with multiple organizations, I have an engineering degree with a high gpa from one of the best and most competitive engineering schools in the US, I've never failed a checkride, I've got LORs from every aviation employer in my past, I have multiple internal LORs with Delta, United, American, and FedEx. I've had my application(s) and resume reviewed by several well known professional consultants (Cage, etc.). I've also been a 121 CA for over 1.5 years now.

Finally, I've been to several job fairs to meet with recruiters, and been told "Everything looks great, keep doing what you're doing, you'll get called/emailed whatever.". My Delta app was scored at the end of last summer as well.

In short, I've pushed and prodded and done absolutely everything I can to try to get hired by a legacy. It has resulted in ZERO interviews and I have absolutely no idea why. But I certainly don't think the legacies have a shortage nor will they ever.
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They mostly have hired people who have done extra curriculars at their current job, atleast that's what I have noticed. And as someone said before, Military is a whole different ball game. No point in getting upset about them getting hired.
 
It's crazy to see how many military pilots get scooped up, good on them. I just hope they stay humble through the process knowing it wasn't that easy for others that did not fly in the military. Especially those that served as enlisted then started at the bottom in the civilian world as a pee on pilot. I have a few good mentors that were pilots in my squadron, they are now at Delta/United and they cannot believe what I have been through since I got out and decided to do this pilot stuff pure civilian. I tell them that I am one of the lucky ones timing wise and tell them stories of guys that are now out of the industry because of bad luck and horrible jobs mixed with crap timing.They seem to understand they have it well. I think it makes them realize complaining about commuting to NYC from Virginia to fly a Mad Dog for 70k that first year isn't that bad after all lol

I don't think the shortage will ever be that bad at the majors, they are ran by very smart business minded people and will find ways to keep filling seats with competitive pilots. Will they always have 10k apps on file? I don't think so, but it will never get bad enough to just expect a phone call after submitting an app at the majors. If it gets to that point, I will start worrying about the industry because that means every other airline is failing badly..
 
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