Current upgrade time

Snuggle said:
This is true. Things can and will change. Upgrade times will only be true for whoever is upgrading right now. However, i'd still rather take a chance at a quick upgrade vs a long one. Positioning myself to get into a major asap was my goal when I started, and I'd do the same thing if I had to do it all over again.
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Derg said:
Well, depends on the type.
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True. But of the last three FOs I flew with 2 had class dates at legacy carriers while the 3rd has an interview date in November.
In addition, the longer one gets stuck at an airline the more important QOL becomes. Not fun working someplace that deadheads you most of a trip at 50% pay, or has 4 day trips worth 6 hours of credit.

I'm reminded of a guy I know who retired from United. When he was hired in the early 70's he was told four years to be a captain. Thirteen years later he was still on the panel.
 
I picked a place known for a high upgrade time, because I felt I'd be happiest there if things stagnated for a while. Right after I got hired the upgrade time almost halved pretty quickly. You just never know.
 
JordanD said:
I picked a place known for a high upgrade time, because I felt I'd be happiest there if things stagnated for a while. Right after I got hired the upgrade time almost halved pretty quickly. You just never know.
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I made the same decision. Day one of new hire I was told 8 year upgrade on the ATR-72, 5 years on the EMB-120. I was an ATR captain in a little over a year and they were junior manning pilots to the left seat of the EMB.
 
Blackhawk said:
Oh, it's still 8 years. But as with most places that stagnated it won't be a linear decrease as the movement starts. That's my point. What is true today won't be true in six months or a year.
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JordanD said:
I picked a place known for a high upgrade time, because I felt I'd be happiest there if things stagnated for a while. Right after I got hired the upgrade time almost halved pretty quickly. You just never know.
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You can actually figure this out to some extent if you get a copy of the seniority list with hire dates.
For example 1000 people on property, 400 are captains, upgrading 10 a month, most senior FO is a 1999 hire and then next 100 are 1999-2001 hires. Then there's no hires until 2005. So today everyone would say that there's a 16 year upgrade but in 10 months it will become a 10 year upgrade. 6 years in 10 months. It can go the other way to. If they're upgrading 2013 hires today, but there's 1000 people between 2013 and late 2015 and only 10 a month are upgrading, you're actually looking at a ~8 year upgrade. Not 2.

The most senior FO/junior captain is an irrelevant metric all on it's own and I have no idea why people measure upgrade time that way.
 
z987k said:
You can actually figure this out to some extent if you get a copy of the seniority list with hire dates. For example 1000 people on property, 400 are captains, upgrading 10 a month, most senior FO is a 1999 hire and then next 100 are 1999-2001 hires. Then there's no hires until 2005. So today everyone would say that there's a 16 year upgrade but in 10 months it will become a 10 year upgrade. 6 years in 10 months. It can go the other way to. If they're upgrading 2013 hires today, but there's 1000 people between 2013 and late 2015 and only 10 a month are upgrading, you're actually looking at a ~8 year upgrade. Not 2. The most senior FO/junior captain is an irrelevant metric all on it's own and I have no idea why people measure upgrade time that way.
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In addition to your reasoning, you could have a situation where 100+ pilots bypass upgrade due to lack of 121 time.
 
Old Dominion Flyer said:
In addition to your reasoning, you could have a situation where 100+ pilots bypass upgrade due to lack of 121 time.
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And even though it's 10 a month today, you have to be able to predict that number long term, which is very hard to do. 6-12 months maybe but not years.
 
z987k said:
You can actually figure this out to some extent if you get a copy of the seniority list with hire dates.
For example 1000 people on property, 400 are captains, upgrading 10 a month, most senior FO is a 1999 hire and then next 100 are 1999-2001 hires. Then there's no hires until 2005. So today everyone would say that there's a 16 year upgrade but in 10 months it will become a 10 year upgrade. 6 years in 10 months. It can go the other way to. If they're upgrading 2013 hires today, but there's 1000 people between 2013 and late 2015 and only 10 a month are upgrading, you're actually looking at a ~8 year upgrade. Not 2.

The most senior FO/junior captain is an irrelevant metric all on it's own and I have no idea why people measure upgrade time that way.
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I agree, but most pilots looking at regionals don't even think about this. Also, in addition to a seniority list you need one that shows position and DOH.
 
Generally the most junior captain is there because no one else wanted to deal with it.

My three legged tripod cat Sasha can probably hold 717 captain in NYC.

But there's more to the story.
 
Even then, it's do you WANT to upgrade? The choice is simpler T the regionals. The dollar figures alone are worth the the commute and QoL hit along with making yourself more marketable to move up.

At the majors, it becomes a different story. Right now, I drive to work (on the 5-9 days I actually get called a month) and don't care much about show and release times. I have about 19 guys below me that just got 190 CA in JFK. Now I can bid that when my lock is up in a year, but do I want to give up the cushy QoL I have living in base? Yeah, it's more money, but I live comfortably now as an Airbus FO. I'd be commuting again and likely to reserve at that. Signs point to me waiting a few years for 190 MCO CA. If a merger comes along, we'll see if I regret that.
 
kellwolf said:
Even then, it's do you WANT to upgrade? The choice is simpler T the regionals. The dollar figures alone are worth the the commute and QoL hit along with making yourself more marketable to move up.

At the majors, it becomes a different story. Right now, I drive to work (on the 5-9 days I actually get called a month) and don't care much about show and release times. I have about 19 guys below me that just got 190 CA in JFK. Now I can bid that when my lock is up in a year, but do I want to give up the cushy QoL I have living in base? Yeah, it's more money, but I live comfortably now as an Airbus FO. I'd be commuting again and likely to reserve at that. Signs point to me waiting a few years for 190 MCO CA. If a merger comes along, we'll see if I regret that.
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Even at regionals it depends on the QOL you have in the current contract and your situation in life. I've known pilots who, due to family, side businesses, other issues deferred their upgrade.
 
Seggy said:
Wimps



Thank you for using proper vernacular.



NYC is a great place to be based. Plenty of options to commute, great flying, and nice seniority.
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Dude, you're from Jersey.

You're used to the broke ass infrastructure of NYC! :)

To the other 310-ish million people, that place is a hole.

But nice seniority, hell on domestic commuters and crash pads aplenty.
 
Oh, here's one. We have a triple digit (600-ish) 747 FO (figure that one out) that bid 717 captain.

We have somewhere around 13,000 pilots (very rough estimate)

Think about that for a bit.
 
Derg said:
Oh, here's one. We have a triple digit (600-ish) 747 FO (figure that one out) that bid 717 captain.

We have somewhere around 13,000 pilots (very rough estimate)

Think about that for a bit.
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In his old age and declining eye sight, he thought the 1 was really a 7?

;)
 
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