A little birdy/ExpressJet

[Kingairer]

Life has always been like that, and not just in our industry. If you worked at Enron in the 1990s, things looked great --- until they didn't. Chance is a huge part of life. It seems like "the kids today" don't roll with it very well. I wonder why that is?

I realize that's probably a rhetorical question, but I think social media and the Information Age has something to do w it. In the pasts you didn't have daily access to your former colleagues pictures from far flung places or cheesin in the left seat. I'm sure you still had an idea that some
Company would be progressing better and faster but there just wasn't as much information out there.

 

[PhilosopherPilot]

It was a real question.

That's a good point you make. It's much easier now to accurately assess how well you are doing in comparison to your peers. Interesting.

 

[Blackhawk]

From a 30,000 foot view, the ridiculously long upgrade at XJT is more related to the failed assumptions made by each of the three stakeholders than anything else.

The parent of the triplets assumed that merging the least favorite two red-haired children, without increasing costs, would lead to an ability to have more control over the market and return to the glory days of yearly 10% margins. This would have made the 'Board very happy.

The pilot representational bodies of both said red-headed stepchildren assumed that stomping their feet and holding their breath until they got their way would have no consequences. The result of this lack of a strategy is currently playing out.

Finally, the mainline 'partner' carriers assumed that creating a market in which the regional FFD carriers had to do unhealthy things to compete for business would best serve the long-term interests of the partner carrier. From the vantage point of a lowly FFD pilot, the proverbial excrement appears to be enroute to the rotary air mover with regard to pilot labor supply. It appears very much that copious amounts of the aforementioned excrement will land on all of us before this period of history is behind us.

Solutions?

Many other factors involved, though the inability of the two pilot groups to come to an agreement is a factor.
Management decided a few years ago that they would no longer make FFD bids that would lose money. Frankly, the only thing saving some of the FFDs right now are historically low fuel prices.
Age 65 rule, economic slowdown, coupled with a good contract. Many pilots (I'm one), were pushed into the 50ish age range by the first two. We are now looking at 12 years (in my case), of flying left. With that amount of flying left, my pay rate, pay rate I would have at a major, our tax bracket, and desiring to spend time with my kids it does not make sense for me to move on. Throw in the fact that some majors tend to view too much flight time as a liability (I've heard rumor it's the 5 figure range), and you have a situation where captains are not moving on. In some ways it has management pulling their hair out as attrition was skewed more toward FO's than captains.

 

[SrFnFly227]

Many other factors involved, though the inability of the two pilot groups to come to an agreement is a factor.
Management decided a few years ago that they would no longer make FFD bids that would lose money. Frankly, the only thing saving some of the FFDs right now are historically low fuel prices.
Age 65 rule, economic slowdown, coupled with a good contract. Many pilots (I'm one), were pushed into the 50ish age range by the first two. We are now looking at 12 years (in my case), of flying left. With that amount of flying left, my pay rate, pay rate I would have at a major, our tax bracket, and desiring to spend time with my kids it does not make sense for me to move on. Throw in the fact that some majors tend to view too much flight time as a liability (I've heard rumor it's the 5 figure range), and you have a situation where captains are not moving on. In some ways it has management pulling their hair out as attrition was skewed more toward FO's than captains.

Which FFDs pay for their own fuel? I thought most, if not all of them, have fuel paid for by the parent company.

 

[Blackhawk]

Which FFDs pay for their own fuel? I thought most, if not all of them, have fuel paid for by the parent company.

I hear this quite a bit. "We don't pay for our own fuel." Are you really that naive to think legacy carriers don't look at the fuel cost of the different FFDs and aircraft types and figure that into contracts? No, you're right. They just say "Hey, here's free fuel. Take as much as you want."

 

[Hacker15e]

I hear this quite a bit. "We don't pay for our own fuel." Are you really that naive to think legacy carriers don't look at the fuel cost of the different FFDs and aircraft types and figure that into contracts? No, you're right. They just say "Hey, here's free fuel. Take as much as you want."

Were most of the current FFD contracts negotiated during the period of "historically low fuel prices"?

 

[aviategw]

Many other factors involved, though the inability of the two pilot groups to come to an agreement is a factor.
Management decided a few years ago that they would no longer make FFD bids that would lose money. Frankly, the only thing saving some of the FFDs right now are historically low fuel prices.
Age 65 rule, economic slowdown, coupled with a good contract. Many pilots (I'm one), were pushed into the 50ish age range by the first two. We are now looking at 12 years (in my case), of flying left. With that amount of flying left, my pay rate, pay rate I would have at a major, our tax bracket, and desiring to spend time with my kids it does not make sense for me to move on. Throw in the fact that some majors tend to view too much flight time as a liability (I've heard rumor it's the 5 figure range), and you have a situation where captains are not moving on. In some ways it has management pulling their hair out as attrition was skewed more toward FO's than captains.

Certainly.... there are definitely other factors. A simple explanation, however, is that all of the principals are standing around in a circle pointing to each other as to who is responsible for the cause and the solution to the current mess.

In fairness, most would categorize XJT as now having above average managerial talent. To your point, however, our longevity costs are also significantly above average in relation to both the broader industry, and, within our own corporate structure.

 

[SrFnFly227]

I hear this quite a bit. "We don't pay for our own fuel." Are you really that naive to think legacy carriers don't look at the fuel cost of the different FFDs and aircraft types and figure that into contracts? No, you're right. They just say "Hey, here's free fuel. Take as much as you want."

While I agree that the legacy carriers are looking at it and that it may change how flying is contracted out, that isn't what you said. You said that low fuel prices are keeping some regionals around. That is absolutely false as fuel prices have no direct link to a FFD airline's balance sheet.

Fuel could double tomorrow and it would not change the revenue or cost of an airline that isn't paying for it's own fuel. It may have some effect on future flying awards, but it wouldn't suddenly cause a bankruptcy.

That is the point of my previous question and I'll ask it again here. Are there any regionals that are paying for their own fuel?

 

[amorris311]

While I agree that the legacy carriers are looking at it and that it may change how flying is contracted out, that isn't what you said. You said that low fuel prices are keeping some regionals around. That is absolutely false as fuel prices have no direct link to a FFD airline's balance sheet.

Fuel could double tomorrow and it would not change the revenue or cost of an airline that isn't paying for it's own fuel. It may have some effect on future flying awards, but it wouldn't suddenly cause a bankruptcy.

That is the point of my previous question and I'll ask it again here. Are there any regionals that are paying for their own fuel?

Short answer, No.

Long answer, Yes.

Most carriers have to abide by certain metrics. If they are skewed, people at the code share want answers.

Quick example: My company wants us to turn the APU on 45 seconds prior to reaching the gate. Once we have the engines shut down and power hooked up they want us to shut it down. Let's say we have a 25 minute turn. We start the APU up again 10-15 min prior to push and run it until both engines are up and running (most of the time). It is more expensive to cycle the start stop on the APU than to burn the 200lbs an hour but they watch the fuel burn. That's just one of many examples of how we don't technically cut the check for the fuel but we have metrics we are closely monitored by.

Clear as mud?

 

[Blackhawk]

While I agree that the legacy carriers are looking at it and that it may change how flying is contracted out, that isn't what you said. You said that low fuel prices are keeping some regionals around. That is absolutely false as fuel prices have no direct link to a FFD airline's balance sheet.

Fuel could double tomorrow and it would not change the revenue or cost of an airline that isn't paying for it's own fuel. It may have some effect on future flying awards, but it wouldn't suddenly cause a bankruptcy.

That is the point of my previous question and I'll ask it again here. Are there any regionals that are paying for their own fuel?

Legacies will, however look at cost per seat/mile. A 50 seat has a higher cost per seat/mile than other aircraft- it has fewer seats. Because of this just two years ago legacy carriers were looking at eliminating 50 seat flying which would have meant less flying for some LLCs. With the historic low fuel prices the retirement of 50 seats has been deferred and those LLCs with 50 seats have slowed down their retirements.

 

[Blackhawk]

Were most of the current FFD contracts negotiated during the period of "historically low fuel prices"?

Nope. Many LLCs signed long term contracts several years ago.

 

[elmetal]

Disregard

 

[mastermags]

While I agree that the legacy carriers are looking at it and that it may change how flying is contracted out, that isn't what you said. You said that low fuel prices are keeping some regionals around. That is absolutely false as fuel prices have no direct link to a FFD airline's balance sheet.

Fuel could double tomorrow and it would not change the revenue or cost of an airline that isn't paying for it's own fuel. It may have some effect on future flying awards, but it wouldn't suddenly cause a bankruptcy.

That is the point of my previous question and I'll ask it again here. Are there any regionals that are paying for their own fuel?

I think the point is, it's cheaper to keep her. With fuel costs down, it is more beneficial to keep some of the smaller planes around for odd roles and lower volume time slots rather then the high fuel scenario where they couldn't park small RJs quick enough. More flying equals a lower average pilot longevity calculated towards labor cost.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Life has always been like that, and not just in our industry. If you worked at Enron in the 1990s, things looked great --- until they didn't. Chance is a huge part of life. It seems like "the kids today" don't roll with it very well. I wonder why that is?

Not quite, because it all boils down to the seniority system. Great for those who get the timing right and can retire at their first major airline at 60 or 65. Bad for the countless ones who have had their airlines go under. In the rest of America, you lose one job you can go into an equally-qualified role and probably get back the same pay you had (if not more). It's certainly the case in engineering I was doing. And yes during the great recession many lost jobs and couldn't find jobs, but for the most part, your skills/education are transportable and so is your ability to obtain similar pay/benefits. Not start at the bottom of the rung all over again.

 

[PhilosopherPilot]

Not quite, because it all boils down to the seniority system. Great for those who get the timing right and can retire at their first major airline at 60 or 65. Bad for the countless ones who have had their airlines go under. In the rest of America, you lose one job you can go into an equally-qualified role and probably get back the same pay you had (if not more). It's certainly the case in engineering I was doing. And yes during the great recession many lost jobs and couldn't find jobs, but for the most part, your skills/education are transportable and so is your ability to obtain similar pay/benefits. Not start at the bottom of the rung all over again.

Luck figures prominently in every aspect of life, but clearly the consequences of that luck vary depending on what industry you are in. My wife can get a job tomorrow at most any medical system in the country, so if her hospital burns down that won't be severely career limiting. That doesn't mean that luck is irrelevant for her though. She still would suffer a setback if she lost her job. It takes about 6 months for a doctor to get credentialed, so she would be out of work for 6 months.

The responsibility for the impact of that luck is left up to you. You own that in your own career. If you are risk averse, get out of aviation. If you don't like the fact that seniority makes you have to start from the bottom if your company goes out of business, go do something else. It isn't as if you were thrust into aviation against your will, and have no other options. Maybe you have no other easy options, but you have options.

That's just how it is man, I don't know what else to tell you. Complaining and moaning about your lot in life, for which you own the responsibility, is extremely annoying. I wanted to punch captains in the throat who complained about people junior to them getting hired at Delta "out of order", as if hiring went in seniority order. Sorry, that isn't how things work in the real world.

 

[Screaming_Emu]

Luck figures prominently in every aspect of life, but clearly the consequences of that luck vary depending on what industry you are in. My wife can get a job tomorrow at most any medical system in the country, so if her hospital burns down that won't be severely career limiting. That doesn't mean that luck is irrelevant for her though. She still would suffer a setback if she lost her job. It takes about 6 months for a doctor to get credentialed, so she would be out of work for 6 months.

The responsibility for the impact of that luck is left up to you. You own that in your own career. If you are risk averse, get out of aviation. If you don't like the fact that seniority makes you have to start from the bottom if you company goes out of business, go do something else. It isn't as if you were thrust into aviation against your will, and have no other options. Maybe you have no other easy options, but you have options.

That's just how it is man, I don't know what else to tell you. Complaining and moaning about your lot in life, for which you own the responsibility, is extremely annoying. I wanted to punch captains in the throat who complained about people junior to them getting hired at Delta "out of order", as if hiring went in seniority order. Sorry, that isn't how things work in the real world.

It's funny. Almost entirely without fail I have found that those who complain about others getting hired places almost never even have their applications in anywhere. Then they spin into some crazy rumor of "I've heard (mainline carrier) is going to buy us and staple."

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Luck figures prominently in every aspect of life, but clearly the consequences of that luck vary depending on what industry you are in. My wife can get a job tomorrow at most any medical system in the country, so if her hospital burns down that won't be severely career limiting. That doesn't mean that luck is irrelevant for her though. She still would suffer a setback if she lost her job. It takes about 6 months for a doctor to get credentialed, so she would be out of work for 6 months.

The responsibility for the impact of that luck is left up to you. You own that in your own career. If you are risk averse, get out of aviation. If you don't like the fact that seniority makes you have to start from the bottom if your company goes out of business, go do something else. It isn't as if you were thrust into aviation against your will, and have no other options. Maybe you have no other easy options, but you have options.

That's just how it is man, I don't know what else to tell you. Complaining and moaning about your lot in life, for which you own the responsibility, is extremely annoying. I wanted to punch captains in the throat who complained about people junior to them getting hired at Delta "out of order", as if hiring went in seniority order. Sorry, that isn't how things work in the real world.

Double ya Tee Eff bud? LOL

You, like I, are what I would consider 'privileged.'

I don't know what doctor credential issue you are referring to. My brother switched from one to another medical group and it was pretty instant, not 6 months. I also know one doc who was going to be fired but ended up resigning and he found another gig fairly quickly.

I don't know why you threw a hailstorm of criticism towards me? I've worked in another field besides aviation. It is my observation that the seniority system is a career killer for portability. That's just fact. Works out great for those who get hired in the right place at the right time, but terrible for those who don't and have had their airline(s) go under. Also, it doesn't matter if you are the best pilot in the lot or the worst pilot who is a crash waiting to happen. The seniority system makes it so it doesn't matter if you really try hard or just barely try and care at all, you're all equals. We're all equals and pay and movement is dictated by that one number. Most of corporate America (at least in the business and engineering fields) your merit is what takes you places. Sure, there is cronyism and nepotism and unfairness along those lines, but the more you prove yourself in your field, the more likely you have doors that are open and available to take that next step with equal and higher pay.

This doesn't mean I'm pissed at the system or angry about aviation, I'm just stating "what it is" and that our skills/career portability is killed. Personally I haven't done too bad so far. If you look at the age thing in seniority, I was at the regionals at 23 and then at my Major/LCC at 27. Not too bad all things considered. It still doesn't change what I personally believe is fact about this industry. And the proof is in abundance visible after 9/11 and in the 2008-2010 recession.

Sounds like you have a doctor wife, but if you didn't, and your 150k+ a year job went under, you might have a different view about things. You lose your job today, you still have a six figure household income. There are other pilots who were bread winners, lost their jobs, household income went to 0, saw their life crashing around them, decided they were worth more dead than alive due to life insurance policy, decided to put a gun to their heads and pull the trigger. Now that's an extreme example but it has happened. In your doctor example, it's not just the 6 month thing. Waiting 6 months is fine when you know you are going to back to making 200k+ as a doctor. For a pilot, waiting 6 months means no other major has called you and you are now starting at a regional - again - making 23k. And yes, many decide to leave the industry.

No one likes betoching pilots, but the advantage I have where I work is that a huge portion of the group is from Aloha, ATA, Skybus, Ryan, Fly Independence, any airline that went under in the 2007-2009 recession. They are here and since most of them upgraded within 2 years, they are extremely thankful and happy all things considered. I don't fly with guys who betoch about the life/schedule. Couple guys do betoch but they don't realize how good they have it.

As for those regional guys, that's tough luck about CAs being stuck and FOs moving on, but as I say, one of the last CAs I flew with said "I didn't spend 8 years here and be a checkairman to end up at a place like Spirit or Virgin." (the only 2 that were hiring back then, when I told him I was leaving). He's still at Pinnacle.

 

[PhilosopherPilot]

Double ya Tee Eff bud? LOL

You, like I, are what I would consider 'privileged.'

I don't know what doctor credential issue you are referring to. My brother switched from one to another medical group and it was pretty instant, not 6 months. I also know one doc who was going to be fired but ended up resigning and he found another gig fairly quickly.

I don't know why you threw a hailstorm of criticism towards me? I've worked in another field besides aviation. It is my observation that the seniority system is a career killer for portability. That's just fact. Works out great for those who get hired in the right place at the right time, but terrible for those who don't and have had their airline(s) go under. Also, it doesn't matter if you are the best pilot in the lot or the worst pilot who is a crash waiting to happen. The seniority system makes it so it doesn't matter if you really try hard or just barely try and care at all, you're all equals. We're all equals and pay and movement is dictated by that one number. Most of corporate America (at least in the business and engineering fields) your merit is what takes you places. Sure, there is cronyism and nepotism and unfairness along those lines, but the more you prove yourself in your field, the more likely you have doors that are open and available to take that next step with equal and higher pay.

This doesn't mean I'm pissed at the system or angry about aviation, I'm just stating "what it is" and that our skills/career portability is killed. Personally I haven't done too bad so far. If you look at the age thing in seniority, I was at the regionals at 23 and then at my Major/LCC at 27. Not too bad all things considered. It still doesn't change what I personally believe is fact about this industry. And the proof is in abundance visible after 9/11 and in the 2008-2010 recession.

Sounds like you have a doctor wife, but if you didn't, and your 150k+ a year job went under, you might have a different view about things. You lose your job today, you still have a six figure household income. There are other pilots who were bread winners, lost their jobs, household income went to 0, saw their life crashing around them, decided they were worth more dead than alive due to life insurance policy, decided to put a gun to their heads and pull the trigger. Now that's an extreme example but it has happened. In your doctor example, it's not just the 6 month thing. Waiting 6 months is fine when you know you are going to back to making 200k+ as a doctor. For a pilot, waiting 6 months means no other major has called you and you are now starting at a regional - again - making 23k. And yes, many decide to leave the industry.

No one likes betoching pilots, but the advantage I have where I work is that a huge portion of the group is from Aloha, ATA, Skybus, Ryan, Fly Independence, any airline that went under in the 2007-2009 recession. They are here and since most of them upgraded within 2 years, they are extremely thankful and happy all things considered. I don't fly with guys who betoch about the life/schedule. Couple guys do betoch but they don't realize how good they have it.

As for those regional guys, that's tough luck about CAs being stuck and FOs moving on, but as I say, one of the last CAs I flew with said "I didn't spend 8 years here and be a checkairman to end up at a place like Spirit or Virgin." (the only 2 that were hiring back then, when I told him I was leaving). He's still at Pinnacle.

I'm not angry at you, or even fired up. I'm just matter-of-fact and direct.

Good luck.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

I'm not angry at you, or even fired up. I'm just matter-of-fact and direct.

Good luck.

But you would agree, our career portability is extremely hindered in terms of movement to other things, and that merit is not worth anything. You can be the laziest lousiest pilot and your outcome is not affected, and neither is the guy who is top notch and actually tries to further his profession.

 

[PhilosopherPilot]

But you would agree, our career portability is extremely hindered in terms of movement to other things, and that merit is not worth anything. You can be the laziest lousiest pilot and your outcome is not affected, and neither is the guy who is top notch and actually tries to further his profession.

Of course I agree. My point is that you shouldn't complain about that. It's established fact, and it isn't going to change. If you don't like it ----------> there's the door.

I don't say that in a mean way. Why stay in a situation that you hate? Move on. Be happy.


By the way, there are ways to be in this career where merit and hard work do matter. Do something above and beyond the line pilot role, and those aspects do matter.