ATP Supply and Demand - New study

[Michael McGee]

In case anyone interested, new study modeling entire US pilot pipeline, to include military pilot flow.

http://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD351.html

 

[chrisreedrules]

Looks interesting... It's 177 pages so I downloaded it and I'll read it over the course of a couple upcoming flights.

 

[wheelsup]

tl;dr

Cliff notes?

 

[Champcar]

Will this topic ever stop being beaten to death?

 

[Skåning]

tl;dr

Cliff notes?

Boom

This study finds there will not be a civilian system-wide pilot shortage in the near-term, though the system will become strained. Low-paying airlines will continue to have difficulties finding qualified pilots. All operators will experience fewer applicants for the available positions, potentially resulting in less qualified pilots system-wide. Barring any policy changes, the military will experience an inventory shortage in the near-term.

 

[mshunter]

Will this topic ever stop being beaten to death?

Not for a while. In terms of regulatory age, it's still a fresh policy, and the chips are still falling. I haven't had a chance to read yet, but I want to see what it says.

Edit to add: I'm willing to bet it's all good news, for those looking for jobs.

 

[dustoff17]

Not for a while. In terms of regulatory age, it's still a fresh policy, and the chips are still falling. I haven't had a chance to read yet, but I want to see what it says.

Edit to add: I'm willing to bet it's all good news, for those looking for jobs.

This has always been the case....and not just in aviation.

My bet is that this article, like many of the past (and future), will be slanted towards the opinion of the author; who happens to be the OP as well......

 

[mshunter]

This has always been the case....and not just in aviation.

My bet is that this article, like many of the past (and future), will be slanted towards the opinion of the author; who happens to be the OP as well......

When was the last time regionals had to "out class" each other with the bonuses they are currently offering just to get people to show up to class? 135 operators are starting to offer bonuses now too.

 

[Maximilian_Jenius]

Edit to add: I'm willing to bet it's all good news, for those looking for jobs.

As someone flirting with the idea of coming back, more especially with ATP's program with Mesa. I still kinda say no. The price of entry is kinda still great. ATP say its $59,995 for it's program. Since I already have my PPL, and about 250 hours. Definitely not bad, more especially since back in 2007, the same program would have cost upwards of about $75-100k.

 

[mshunter]

As someone flirting with the idea of coming back, more especially with ATP's program with Mesa. I still kinda say no. The price of entry is kinda still great. ATP say its $59,995 for it's program. Since I already have my PPL, and about 250 hours. Definitely not bad, more especially since back in 2007, the same program would have cost upwards of about $75-100k.

That's one of the reasons we're short on pilots. But being short on pilots, and having a pilot shortage are two different things. I say do it Max. You'd be a real hoot to fly with.

 

[hook_dupin]

who happens to be the OP as well......

One good thing: unlike most other grad students, people are actually going to read his thesis.

 

[Maximilian_Jenius]

That's one of the reasons we're short on pilots. But being short on pilots, and having a pilot shortage are two different things. I say do it Max. You'd be a real hoot to fly with.

Yeah... I blame Mesa. I thought my time was past, I'd resolved myself to my second choice career, I was at peace with it all. It was over, then they went and made it all possible again, damn them. Then there is age 70 looming in Japan, which will no doubt happen here too in time. In any event, I still need to check that box and finish school. So we'll see where we are in 2-3 years time. Smart money says stick with current path. Emotional response says do the pilot thing again.

 

[Boris Badenov]

I've only taken a glance at it, but I don't see any screaming bias. *shrug*

At the very least he certainly put in enough key strokes to be taken seriously.

 

[dustoff17]

When was the last time regionals had to "out class" each other with the bonuses they are currently offering just to get people to show up to class? 135 operators are starting to offer bonuses now too.

You lost me with "regionals" and "out class" in the same sentence.........

P.S. I do find it interesting that this is not only the OP's first post but also his paper.....just an observation.

 

[mshunter]

I've only taken a glance at it, but I don't see any screaming bias. *shrug*

At the very least he certainly put in enough key strokes to be taken seriously.

From the little bits that I've thumbed through, he's done some research too.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

As someone flirting with the idea of coming back

Don't do it, Max! Save yourself before it's too late!

Trust me, get a good job in your "second choice" career, buy an airplane, fly for fun. The key to happiness.

 

[Maximilian_Jenius]

Don't do it, Max! Save yourself before it's too late!

Trust me, get a good job in your "second choice" career, buy an airplane, fly for fun. The key to happiness.

See that's the logical choice. But I have to wonder what it would be like opening my own private practice psychiatric business, how long it would take building a patient clientele. Having to always get new add-on continuing education certificates, in order to get multiple billable specialties. So that I won't have to refer business out, which would be losing money. Just seems like a lot of work. Building patient clientele is the hardest part my mentor says when you're just starting out. But if you can do it, you can make really good money. Like six figure captain pay at a major, more especially if you only accept cash, and you don't accept insurance.

Just showing up at the airport, and strapping on a jet for a five day sounds so much easier.

 

[jskibo]

See that's the logical choice. But I have to wonder what it would be like opening my own private practice psychiatric business, how long it would take building a patient clientele. Having to always get new add-on continuing education certificates, in order to get multiple billable specialties. So that I won't have to refer business out, which would be losing money. Just seems like a lot of work. Building patient clientele is the hardest part my mentor says when you're just starting out. But if you can do it, you can make really good money. Like six figure captain pay at a major, more especially if you only accept cash, and you don't accept insurance.

Just showing up at the airport, and strapping on a jet for a five day sounds so much easier.

You have a whole practice worth of patients and then some right here. Just ask @Derg for a discount banner rate

 

[milleR]

See that's the logical choice. But I have to wonder what it would be like opening my own private practice psychiatric business, how long it would take building a patient clientele. Having to always get new add-on continuing education certificates, in order to get multiple billable specialties. So that I won't have to refer business out, which would be losing money. Just seems like a lot of work. Building patient clientele is the hardest part my mentor says when you're just starting out. But if you can do it, you can make really good money. Like six figure captain pay at a major, more especially if you only accept cash, and you don't accept insurance.

Just showing up at the airport, and strapping on a jet for a five day sounds so much easier.

 

[Maximilian_Jenius]

You have a whole practice worth of patients and then some right here. Just ask @Derg for a discount banner rate

Yeah. I don't have to do anything, like work at it, it just comes natural to me. Reading,watching, listening to people and figuring out their motives, and how they think. Remember the last conversation we had about your ex.

If increased psychiatric screening for pilots becomes a thing, it will definitely be one of my specialties.