Endeavor's next big announcement

[Karnage]

Delta can not just cut 190+ airplanes, even in one year. It took the better part of a decade to slowly dismantle Comair. Even with effort there was just too much lift to pull in just one year.

Just for clarity, in the last 4 years, Jan 2010 to Jan 2014, Delta Connection has shrunk by 162 planes.

The break down is:
CR2: -161
CR7: +16
CR9: +12
E70: +17
E75: No change
ER4: -5
SF3: -41

In that time the biggest single year drop occured betwen Jan 2012 and Jan 2013 when 56 planes left the DCI fleet, with 63 CRJ-200s departing, one Embraer 170 and 6 ERJ-145s being brought in to the fleet. Based on an assumed max of 60 retirements per year (I'm too tied to look up the delivery schedule for the last CRJ-900s which could accelerate that), Delta could drop the 50 seaters in the following time table (not all at once though given the fact that in the 2010 to 2013 period Delta's mainline fleet didn't grow and the incoming 717s could add to the number of 50 seaters going to the junkers):

Chatauqua: 1 year (41 ERJ-145s)
ExpressJet: 1 year (62 CRJ-200s)
Endeavor: 2 years (117 CRJ-200s)
SkyWest: 1 year (41 CRJ-200s)
* All based on Jan 1, 2014 data, it should be noted that SkyWest is already ditching 50 seaters in a swap for more CRJ-700s and -900s that started last year.

 

[jynxyjoe]

The battered wife syndrome defense.

I'm just glad to see Eagle guys who were told the exact same thing as 9E was told yet they had the guts to vote no in superior numbers. Sometimes you gotta call the bluff and then see the real cards.

You're able to understand that a bluff means they won't park them right? Not saying thats next but its a bluff only if American doesn't follow through on their threats.

As for the rest, you're wrong to think 2500 pilots won't flock to whatever job opportunities comes up. The 2012 economy was crap and part time work would have been most of the jobs available to us. Retrospec, I think, would have concluded that Endeavor did the right thing considering now oilots can move on to pilot jobs, not part time pizza delievery jobs.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

You're able to understand that a bluff means they won't park them right? Not saying thats next but its a bluff only if American doesn't follow through on their threats.

As for the rest, you're wrong to think 2500 pilots won't flock to whatever job opportunities comes up. The 2012 economy was crap and part time work would have been most of the jobs available to us. Retrospec, I think, would have concluded that Endeavor did the right thing considering now oilots can move on to pilot jobs, not part time pizza delievery jobs.

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. 2012 wasn't that bad for hiring, and LCCs hired hundreds of pilots. My bluff comment was about if they don't sign the concessionary deal, then the larger EMB jets go to other regionals and then legacy American Eagle gets shut down. And no, you did not do the right thing by signing that concessionary contract. Your justification is "my job still continues" and that is a weak argument to use considering what has happened.

 

[higney85]

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. 2012 wasn't that bad for hiring, and LCCs hired hundreds of pilots. My bluff comment was about if they don't sign the concessionary deal, then the larger EMB jets go to other regionals and then legacy American Eagle gets shut down. And no, you did not do the right thing by signing that concessionary contract. Your justification is "my job still continues" and that is a weak argument to use considering what has happened.

Sounds like a personal opinion. In the end, we don't know what would have happened if things went the other way. No matter how you look at it, it's done, so we all move on.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Sounds like a personal opinion. In the end, we don't know what would have happened if things went the other way. No matter how you look at it, it's done, so we all move on.

Ok thanks Hillary.

 

[jynxyjoe]

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. 2012 wasn't that bad for hiring, and LCCs hired hundreds of pilots. My bluff comment was about if they don't sign the concessionary deal, then the larger EMB jets go to other regionals and then legacy American Eagle gets shut down. And no, you did not do the right thing by signing that concessionary contract. Your justification is "my job still continues" and that is a weak argument to use considering what has happened.

If you say so. In the meantime we lose 50-60 a month in 2014 when our pilots choose to.

 

[bronco21016]

41 between ISL 28 FEB and ISL 28 MAR.

Back on topic...

Latest rumor stems around idea of making Endeavor the ONLY path to become a future Delta pilot. Cradle to grave: training to right seat to mainline program. Delta definitely has the cash for it. Sure would be a "game changer" as people have been speculating.

 

[ClarkGriswold]

41 between ISL 28 FEB and ISL 28 MAR.

Back on topic...

Latest rumor stems around idea of making Endeavor the ONLY path to become a future Delta pilot. Cradle to grave: training to right seat to mainline program. Delta definitely has the cash for it. Sure would be a "game changer" as people have been speculating.

Theres no way. What about all their mil applicants? What about the people they're still interviewing/in the pool. What if Delta is short pilots but so is Endeavor making them keep people down? Lastly what about their other regional feed suffering as people from both seats bail to 9E?

 

[bronco21016]

Theres no way. What about all their mil applicants? What about the people they're still interviewing/in the pool. What if Delta is short pilots but so is Endeavor making them keep people down? Lastly what about their other regional feed suffering as people from both seats bail to 9E?

I agree. Far fetched. Just the latest in insane rumors ha!

 

[kellwolf]

On the list of crazy rumors out of that place, that's pretty high up. If Delta forced people to "do time" at a regional, a lot of good, qualified pilots would just got to AMR, United, etc.

Sounds like someone cooked this up to stoke their personal career hope fire to keep from crying into their pillow at night.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Has there ever been a good announcement on April 1?

 

[jynxyjoe]

On the list of crazy rumors out of that place, that's pretty high up. If Delta forced people to "do time" at a regional, a lot of good, qualified pilots would just got to AMR, United, etc.

Sounds like someone cooked this up to stoke their personal career hope fire to keep from crying into their pillow at night.

Guumball has lots of ideas while he cries into his pillow. They aren't all ego stroking. That's not fair.

Has there ever been a good announcement on April 1?

phhht. Nice!

 

[v1valarob]

On the list of crazy rumors out of that place, that's pretty high up. If Delta forced people to "do time" at a regional, a lot of good, qualified pilots would just got to AMR, United, etc.

Sounds like someone cooked this up to stoke their personal career hope fire to keep from crying into their pillow at night.

Endeavor pilots seem to think they are delta pilots. They are not.

You wouldn't believe how many guys I fly with that assume delta will have to staple them at some point. I just sit there and think to myself "buddy, your not even in the top 500, you won't even be a regional captain soon, let alone a delta pilot." Which means they won't even qualify for the SSP!

Everyone says "I wish delta would tell us their plan!" Well... They have. 81 CRJ900s flying out of NYC.

 

[Dexter]

^^ exact same "they have to staple us" sentiments at Eagle/Envoy.

 

[BobDDuck]

^^ exact same "they have to staple us" sentiments at Eagle/Envoy.

You'd think some of these people are new to the Wholly Owned game or something.

 

[jynxyjoe]

41 between ISL 28 FEB and ISL 28 MAR.

Back on topic...

Latest rumor stems around idea of making Endeavor the ONLY path to become a future Delta pilot. Cradle to grave: training to right seat to mainline program. Delta definitely has the cash for it. Sure would be a "game changer" as people have been speculating.

I was told we were on pace for 60. Is there an official number out already or is that just from the published SLI's?
Jan - 49
Feb - 47
Those were from the updates

Endeavor pilots seem to think they are delta pilots. They are not.

You wouldn't believe how many guys I fly with that assume delta will have to staple them at some point. I just sit there and think to myself "buddy, your not even in the top 500, you won't even be a regional captain soon, let alone a delta pilot." Which means they won't even qualify for the SSP!

Everyone says "I wish delta would tell us their plan!" Well... They have. 81 CRJ900s flying out of NYC.

You'd think some of these people are new to the Wholly Owned game or something.

Lol, some of us are new to the wholly owned game. After April 55% or else 60% of L-Mesaba are gone.

You got to remember, a lot of folks try to pass off "staying positive" for what looks like silly scenarios. I can't testify to everyone's state of mind, but it's become fairly bad here and people are sometimes making crap up to feel better about their situation.

 

[bronco21016]

I was told we were on pace for 60. Is there an official number out already or is that just from the published SLI's?
Jan - 49
Feb - 47
Those were from the updates

I just subtracted totals from the two ISLs posted on the company page. Haven't been home to do more analysis and I'm aware that the published lists often contain numerous errors.

At the rate we're going there won't be any chance of even staffing all of the 81 -900s by spring 2015. Surely they've projected far enough to realize that right? Then what? Could ExpressJet staff them? Could anyone staff them?

The current wind down has us with 81 -900s and according to last update 70 -200s by December 2014. We couldn't even staff that today let alone after a net loss of 40-50/month. Something has to give. Even assuming no 200s in December we're still barely staffed.

 

[L-16B]

I just subtracted totals from the two ISLs posted on the company page. Haven't been home to do more analysis and I'm aware that the published lists often contain numerous errors.

At the rate we're going there won't be any chance of even staffing all of the 81 -900s by spring 2015. Surely they've projected far enough to realize that right? Then what? Could ExpressJet staff them? Could anyone staff them?

The current wind down has us with 81 -900s and according to last update 70 -200s by December 2014. We couldn't even staff that today let alone after a net loss of 40-50/month. Something has to give. Even assuming no 200s in December we're still barely staffed.

Like X 1000

 

[jynxyjoe]

I just subtracted totals from the two ISLs posted on the company page. Haven't been home to do more analysis and I'm aware that the published lists often contain numerous errors.

At the rate we're going there won't be any chance of even staffing all of the 81 -900s by spring 2015. Surely they've projected far enough to realize that right? Then what? Could ExpressJet staff them? Could anyone staff them?

The current wind down has us with 81 -900s and according to last update 70 -200s by December 2014. We couldn't even staff that today let alone after a net loss of 40-50/month. Something has to give. Even assuming no 200s in December we're still barely staffed.

I don't know except to tell you the 200s don't mean much. I'm not being flippant, there's just so little to go on I can only trace backwards from facts. Maybe it'll matter when we goto 81 900s?

If it mattered they'd do something.

I'm afraid it's time for another game of CEO whiplash. I've got my money on Willlllllbur as our next chief.

 

[kellwolf]

I just subtracted totals from the two ISLs posted on the company page. Haven't been home to do more analysis and I'm aware that the published lists often contain numerous errors.

At the rate we're going there won't be any chance of even staffing all of the 81 -900s by spring 2015. Surely they've projected far enough to realize that right? Then what? Could ExpressJet staff them? Could anyone staff them?

If PinnDeavor projected at all past the next bid window, it would be a vast improvement. As for Delta, based on my experience under the banner, it seems they take a "It's the regional partner's job to staff, and if they can't, it's the OTHER regional partner's job to staff" mentality. They're not shy about calling another DCI carrier to pick up segment that someone canceled due to staffing. They're also not quick to forget it when it comes time to assign block hours again. I doubt ANY of the DCI carriers would actually fess up if they couldn't staff anything.