Latest Eagle AIP rejected

roundout said:

My statement was in response to your post "it's 2 days later-they haven't shut us down." You can't have actually expected them to close us down yesterday. If you did you clearly don't get it.​
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When will they close down?

Also you didn't answer my question. "And those 60 planes are going to require 900 qualified pilots to fly them. Where exactly are those 900 qualified pilots going to come from?"

So where EXACTLY are those 900 qualified pilots going to come from?

Joe
 
J Cole said:
I did. However, I respectfully disagree with your conclusions.

I think the most optimistic flow through numbers are closer to 3 years for a new hire. 2700 pilots on the seniority list - 400 pilots who won't flow or will retire = 2300 pilots. Attrition to other airlines and flowthrough at 60/month = 3 years 2 months. If no pilots leave to other airlines and the flow is minimal (30/month), then you're looking at around 7 years - but I'm not sure this is realistic given the shear number of pilots that will be hired in the next 10 years.

I think that a new hire would jump at the chance to be able to flow in 3-7 years because it provides some extra security. You would know that if your applications at Delta, American, United, FedEx, UPS, Southwest, etc. didn't pan out, you would still be able to get to AA without an interview.

It's also true that you can apply to all the majors with 1,500 hours, but you still need 1,000 turbine with that and I don't believe the majors are looking at people with flight time that low just yet.

Finally, I agree that pay rates are decisive in attracting pilots, but pilots are savvy enough to realize that they will make more money if they can upgrade faster. The added attrition at eagle from increased flowthrough would potentially allow new hires to do just that.

In any case, we are both looking at the same evidence, but we see very different conclusions. I suspect that we differ on more fundamental principles about the world in general.
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That's some awful fuzzy math there. The numbers I used on rates currently were reported by ALPA. The throttling down was my estimate.

Even if it was three years, that doesn't mean we should sell our services for less when we can't staff what we have.
That's the single biggest point you're missing- we can't even get people to show up to class at the rates we're paying- letting the flow run at a constant rate would cripple an airline that is still currently a significant part of AA. Eagle can't just go away- if they do let everybody on property flow, they'd have to give incentive to enough people to replace us. You can't replace 3000 pilots overnight.

It took FIVE YEARS to shut down Comair. They were half our current size.
 
JOEFRIDAY2 said:
So where EXACTLY are those 900 qualified pilots going to come from?
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Those pilots will come from Eagle (Envoy). They just will be at first year pay at a new company instead. That's how management is making the game work. It's NOT about pay rates but rather longevity. It's how the CMR situation played out, it's how the Endeavor situation is playing out and it's how the ExpressJet and Envoy situation will play out. Just ask people like @jtrain609 who has moved on to a place like California Pacific. Sure, his career prospects are better there but he's also having to start over on first year pay. That's a win for ExpressJet as they remove a 3rd year pay guy and can (if they need more people) hire somebody at year 1, and a win for CalPac who is able to hire a new pilot to fly their new airplanes.
 
BobDDuck said:
Those pilots will come from Eagle (Envoy). They just will be at first year pay at a new company instead. That's how management is making the game work. It's NOT about pay rates but rather longevity. It's how the CMR situation played out, it's how the Endeavor situation is playing out and it's how the ExpressJet and Envoy situation will play out. Just ask people like @jtrain609 who has moved on to a place like California Pacific. Sure, his career prospects are better there but he's also having to start over on first year pay. That's a win for ExpressJet as they remove a 3rd year pay guy and can (if they need more people) hire somebody at year 1, and a win for CalPac who is able to hire a new pilot to fly their new airplanes.
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Some, maybe, but I'm willing to bet not many.
 
JOEFRIDAY2 said:
When will they close down?

Also you didn't answer my question. "And those 60 planes are going to require 900 qualified pilots to fly them. Where exactly are those 900 qualified pilots going to come from?"

So where EXACTLY are those 900 qualified pilots going to come from?

Joe
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On the first question, I don't know. But I did know it wasn't going to this week. On the second, the same places they are now. But instead of one place trying to attract 900, it'll be 3 trying hire 300 each, which is more reasonable. They've already proved that they're willing to park old airframe to staff new ones. 300 each wouldn't be that hard, in my estimation.
 
BobDDuck said:
They said that at Comair too but at the end of it all about 65% of their pilot group found jobs at other regionals.
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I have yet to fly with a single person since this ridiculousness started who said they'd go to another regional. Of course, any port in a storm, and it's easy to say you wouldn't do while you have a job, but the landscape is different today than it was then.
 
BobDDuck said:
Those pilots will come from Eagle (Envoy). They just will be at first year pay at a new company instead. That's how management is making the game work. .
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For this to happen all of the following would have to occur:

1. 900 Eagle pilots would have to buy into this.
2. Those 900 pilots would have to leave Eagle.
3. 60 planes would have to be parked.
4. 500,000 passengers (per month) would not be able to fly American during the 6 months this would take to ramp this scheme up.
5. American would lose in excess of 68 millon dollars per month in revenue while this is going on.

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I dunno, but I think it's cheaper just to pay the pilots.

Joe
 
JOEFRIDAY2 said:
For this to happen all of the following would have to occur:

1. 900 Eagle pilots would have to buy into this.
2. Those 900 pilots would have to leave Eagle.
3. 60 planes would have to be parked.
4. 500,000 passengers (per month) would not be able to fly American during the 6 months this would take to ramp this scheme up.
5. American would lose in excess of 68 millon dollars per month in revenue while this is going on.

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I dunno, but I think it's cheaper just to pay the pilots.

Joe
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This isn't the first time. Neither was Comair. When ACA management decided to test United, I think it was less than 12 months to change over feed for all of IAD. Maybe less. Since then, there is no "too big to fail" in regional world. Guaranteed.
 
roundout said:
I have yet to fly with a single person since this ridiculousness started who said they'd go to another regional. Of course, any port in a storm, and it's easy to say you wouldn't do while you have a job, but the landscape is different today than it was then.
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The really sad thing of this is that people who actually WOULD go to another regional are willingly re-enacting what Frank Lorenzo did to Eastern Airlines with Continental in 1989. Remember- Doug Parker is the Sith student of Lorenzo.
 
roundout said:
On the first question, I don't know. But I did know it wasn't going to this week. On the second, the same places they are now. But instead of one place trying to attract 900, it'll be 3 trying hire 300 each, which is more reasonable. They've already proved that they're willing to park old airframe to staff new ones. 300 each wouldn't be that hard, in my estimation.
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I think we all knew that Eagle wasn't going to shut down this week. In fact it's more likely than not that it will not happen at all in the near future unless they can't find pilots to fly their aircraft. What they should be doing right now is everything possible to keep their pilots instead of just ticking everyone off.

As far as three different airlines trying to each hire 300 new pilots, the total still comes up to 900 pilots. Republic, ExpressJet and Great Lakes have all announced that they can't hire enough pilots for the routes they already have. So that group of airlines is off of the table. It is more likely than not that all of the remaining regionals are in the same unfortunate position of being short of pilots. There isn't any reason to believe that some magical spell will be cast that will suddenly make 900 qualified pilots appear.

Joe
 
Polar742 said:
This isn't the first time. Neither was Comair. When ACA management decided to test United, I think it was less than 12 months to change over feed for all of IAD. Maybe less. Since then, there is no "too big to fail" in regional world. Guaranteed.
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When Delta decided to kill off Comair it was a different time and a different place. There was plenty of excess capacity in the regional airline world at that time. It was simple for Delta to transfer the routes over to whoever had the lowest bid.

Today there is absolutely no excess capacity and there is no place for an airline to move those routes because there are no bidders.

Joe
 
JOEFRIDAY2 said:
When Delta decided to kill off Comair it was a different time and a different place. There was plenty of excess capacity in the regional airline world at that time. It was simple for Delta to transfer the routes over to whoever had the lowest bid.

Today there is absolutely no excess capacity and there is no place for an airline to move those routes because there are no bidders.

Joe
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Don't ever sell short management's ability to quickly shut down a regional of any size. Especially a wholly-owned. They will. The problems with your assumption are: 1) ALL of the flying needs replaced and 2) it will be replaced by another commuter.
 
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