1500hr Rule - Do you think the industry will adjust? If so, how?

*shrug*. I was a great pilot with terrible judgment at 21. You're arguing that I'm an outlier, but the statistics seem to suggest that you're the outlier. And good for you, but...
 
PeanuckleCRJ said:
That is exactly what is finally going on. That's why the airlines are finally making some profit.
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They are? Really?

U.S. Airlines Experienced Lower Profit Margins in 2012

The top commercial airlines in the U.S. set performance records and experienced lower profit margins in 2012, according to a report released Thursday by industry trade group Airlines ...for America (A4A).

A4A’s report profiles the 10 airlines that reported full-year 2012 results—Alaska, Allegiant, American, Delta, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit, United and US Airways—for a combined $152 million net profit; that’s a 64 percent drop from 2011 when those same 10 airlines reported a combined $418 million.

The report shows that profits per passenger enplaned have steadily dropped off since 2010 as the price of jet fuel continues to rise. In 2010 the same reporting airlines experienced profits of $3.18 per passenger, which dropped to 77 cents in 2011 and 21 cents in 2012.

“U.S. airlines eked out another year of meager profitability as expenses grew faster than revenues with record-setting fuel prices serving as a primary driver,” said John Heimlich, vice president of A4A. “The airlines spent some $50 billion to fuel their flights despite using half a billion fewer gallons in 2012 than in 2011 and last week the price of jet fuel hit its highest level in nearly a year. Fuel remains the airlines’ single largest expense.”

Despite the lower profits, nearly 82 percent of U.S. flights arrived on time—the third best year on record and the highest on-time arrival rate since 2003, according to the Department of Transportation (DoT). The department also reported the best year on record for baggage handling performance, with about three bags mishandled for every 1,000 domestic passengers.

“U.S. airlines delivered some of their best operational performance for on-time arrivals and baggage delivery in history, while continuing their stellar record of safety and investing in ongoing improvement to the travel experience for customers,” said Dan Elwell, senior vice president for safety, security and operations at A4A. ( Source: Aviation Today February 22, 2013)
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Nevermind what "their job is", are they lying or aren't they? Shouldn't be hard to prove if they're lying, seeing as how the revenues & profits of publically traded corporations are, well, public.
 
Mike H said:
Nevermind what "their job is", are they lying or aren't they? Shouldn't be hard to prove if they're lying, seeing as how the revenues & profits of publically traded corporations are, well, public.
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You say lie, they say make the numbers work in a fashion that benefits their clients.
 
Firebird2XC said:
You must mean this, from a week and a half ago:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/2013/02/15/airfare-hikes-fail/1922995/
"The latest unsuccessful attempt came from Delta Air Lines. On Wednesday, Delta raised domestic fares bought within seven days of travel by $4 to $10 round-trip, says Rick Seaney, CEO of FareCompare.com, which tracks airfares. By Friday, they'd backed off. The reason? No other airline matched it, said Delta spokesman Anthony Black."

But clearly, your information is outdated, as of 21 Feb 13:


http://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/2013/02/21/fares-rising/1936525/

"Delta started the wave on Tuesday, boosting the price of tickets purchased within seven days of domestic travel by $4 to $10 round trip, Seaney says. Several other carriers have followed, including United, American, US Airways, and on a more limited scale, Southwest. Southwest's participation is usually key in guaranteeing a fare increase's success because other carriers don't want to be seen as charging more than their cheapest competitors."

Oh- but the real coup de grace to your argument is here:

"The increase comes as airlines reported narrower profits in 2012 than they saw the year before. Last year, there were seven successful price increases."

This year's increases have seen resistance from the customer base, but when one airline starts a push, and the others follow, it's continually pushed until resistance caves.

Bob Crandall's method of collusion still exists- but this time the airlines are more careful not to actually say it.

It's happening.
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Comical. You take the USA today as gospel. Delta, US Airways, Southwest, SkyWest, Alaska, and JetBlue (to name a few) all had higher profits in 2012 versus 2011. Check the financials.

And just because airlines raise (and match) fares doesn't mean people will pay them.
 
ppragman said:
The problem with this is that it's pay scales that are being based upon age - not experience. You could have a guy seat-locked for a few years on the FO payscale, even though he's got 3000hrs in type and 4000TT. In the left seat, you could theoretically (right now anyway, this'll change after the 1500hr rule) have a guy in the left seat with 1500hrs exactly and 100 in type or whatever. If you have the hours, can pass the checkride, upgrade away - if you have to have a limit for it - well then, 21 like every other ICAO country.
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.. so what exactly don't you agree with? The seniority system? Or age requirements for a certificate?
 
ClearedToThe said:
Comical. You take the USA today as gospel. Delta, US Airways, Southwest, SkyWest, Alaska, and JetBlue (to name a few) all had higher profits in 2012 versus 2011. Check the financials.

And just because airlines raise (and match) fares doesn't mean people will pay them.
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I don't take anything anybody says as Gospel, but it seems to work for you. When you've lived a little of the history out there, you realize everything has spin.

You, sir, are so attached to your opinion that no rational argument would change it. You've made a religion of your ideas and brought them to a discussion of sciences. To you, sir, I say good day.
 
Firebird2XC said:
I don't take anything anybody says as Gospel, but it seems to work for you. When you've lived a little of the history out there, you realize everything has spin.

You, sir, are so attached to your opinion that no rational argument would change it. You've made a religion of your ideas and brought them to a discussion of sciences. To you, sir, I say good day.
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Aroo?
 
ppragman said:
The problem with this is that it's pay scales that are being based upon age - not experience. You could have a guy seat-locked for a few years on the FO payscale, even though he's got 3000hrs in type and 4000TT. In the left seat, you could theoretically (right now anyway, this'll change after the 1500hr rule) have a guy in the left seat with 1500hrs exactly and 100 in type or whatever. If you have the hours, can pass the checkride, upgrade away - if you have to have a limit for it - well then, 21 like every other ICAO country.
Click to expand...

It has always been possible to have a right seater with more time and experience than the guy to his/her left. Its a problem with a seniority based system because there will always be people starting over at the bottom of the list after their company goes under or they are furloughed. The problem is at the age of 21, you don't know what you don't really know. In other words, the older I am the more I realize the less I know. There will always be exceptions to the rule but you can't make laws based on exceptions, you have to legislate based on generalizations.

The reason there will be no grandfathering is the airlines would take full advantage of the situation and hire as many pilots prior to August 1st that don't meet the requirements as possible. So if you don't have the time, I'm sorry but a line in the sand had to be drawn somewhere and you happen to be on the wrong side of it. It hasn't been the norm for guys with such little TT to be hired anyways and is only a recent occurrence so you shouldn't have expected it anyways.

Your arguments only give ammunition to people that want to raise the retirement age above 65 as that is "arbitrary" as well. If they win their argument, this one is moot as there won't be any hiring for long time.

BTW,are you 21? Because the NPRM allows for a Frozen ATP for people under the age of 23 with the hours so I don't know what everyone is complaining about. The NPRM also requires a 1,000 hours 121 SIC before upgrade so you won't see the low time street captains anymore as well.
 
flyinggreasemnky said:
The reason there will be no grandfathering is the airlines would take full advantage of the situation and hire as many pilots prior to August 1st that don't meet the requirements as possible. So if you don't have the time, I'm sorry but a line in the sand had to be drawn somewhere and you happen to be on the wrong side of it. It hasn't been the norm for guys with such little TT to be hired anyways and is only a recent occurrence so you shouldn't have expected it anyways.
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Well the proposal involved a minimum amount of 121 time, 1 year I believe before you would qualify to be grandfathered in. That way airlines couldn't hired a bunch of low timers right before the deadline.
 
flyinggreasemnky said:
It has always been possible to have a right seater with more time and experience than the guy to his/her left. Its a problem with a seniority based system because there will always be people starting over at the bottom of the list after their company goes under or they are furloughed. The problem is at the age of 21, you don't know what you don't really know. In other words, the older I am the more I realize the less I know. There will always be exceptions to the rule but you can't make laws based on exceptions, you have to legislate based on generalizations.
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I'm somewhat older than that, and still don't know what I don't know—and I'm not sure that has anything to do with flying.

The more you find out, the more you realize how little you know.

The reason there will be no grandfathering is the airlines would take full advantage of the situation and hire as many pilots prior to August 1st that don't meet the requirements as possible. So if you don't have the time, I'm sorry but a line in the sand had to be drawn somewhere and you happen to be on the wrong side of it. It hasn't been the norm for guys with such little TT to be hired anyways and is only a recent occurrence so you shouldn't have expected it anyways.
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tl;dr: "Screw you, I got mine" and "oh, sorry, we're going to take your job now."

You must admit that it's just a little crappy to say to someone who is qualified by regulation, and his employer now and gainfully (possibly even happily) employed that they mightn't continue to be gainfully employed or qualified come August 1, 2013. There are some folks who're doing nothing about it hoping for a paid vacation, and then there are folks who are flying their asses off to make sure they continue to be qualified. Where I work it's a handful of recent hires, and we're all doing the latter.

(I'm in the latter group, incidentally - it is a damn good thing I like to fly.)
 
Autothrust Blue said:
I'm somewhat older than that, and still don't know what I don't know—and I'm not sure that has anything to do with flying.

The more you find out, the more you realize how little you know.


tl;dr: "Screw you, I got mine" and "oh, sorry, we're going to take your job now."

You must admit that it's just a little crappy to say to someone who is qualified by regulation, and his employer now and gainfully (possibly even happily) employed that they mightn't continue to be gainfully employed or qualified come August 1, 2013. There are some folks who're doing nothing about it hoping for a paid vacation, and then there are folks who are flying their asses off to make sure they continue to be qualified. Where I work it's a handful of recent hires, and we're all doing the latter.

(I'm in the latter group, incidentally - it is a damn good thing I like to fly.)
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Here, figured you might want this to go with your post.

tumblr_lfbbt3zVvx1qacxiu.jpg
 
jtrain609 said:
Here, figured you might want this to go with your post.

tumblr_lfbbt3zVvx1qacxiu.jpg
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Why good morning sir, it's always so good to speak to you. May peace be upon you. ;)

In reality, my position is best measured thusly:
140869084_453cbbbd19.jpg


Amount I can do about the rule: zero.
Amount of flying I can do between now and then: lots.
Control I have over that: Considerable.
 
Autothrust Blue said:
Why good morning sir, it's always so good to speak to you. May peace be upon you. ;)

In reality, my position is best measured thusly:
140869084_453cbbbd19.jpg


Amount I can do about the rule: zero.
Amount of flying I can do between now and then: lots.
Control I have over that: Considerable.
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You have to average 50 hours per month between now and August.

I'm pretty sure you'll be cool.
 
jtrain609 said:
You have to average 50 hours per month between now and August.

I'm pretty sure you'll be cool.
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Of course.

But I actively worry about keeping my employment and qualification anyway. Thinking about remaining qualified should be a part of every "professional's" thought process.
 
Firebird2XC said:
I don't take anything anybody says as Gospel, but it seems to work for you. When you've lived a little of the history out there, you realize everything has spin.

You, sir, are so attached to your opinion that no rational argument would change it. You've made a religion of your ideas and brought them to a discussion of sciences. To you, sir, I say good day.
Click to expand...

Wow, you must be a bundle of joy to fly with. I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you've had several drinks! Nothing I said in my response to you was in the form of "opinion".
 
flyinggreasemnky said:
It has always been possible to have a right seater with more time and experience than the guy to his/her left. Its a problem with a seniority based system because there will always be people starting over at the bottom of the list after their company goes under or they are furloughed. The problem is at the age of 21, you don't know what you don't really know. In other words, the older I am the more I realize the less I know. There will always be exceptions to the rule but you can't make laws based on exceptions, you have to legislate based on generalizations.

The reason there will be no grandfathering is the airlines would take full advantage of the situation and hire as many pilots prior to August 1st that don't meet the requirements as possible. So if you don't have the time, I'm sorry but a line in the sand had to be drawn somewhere and you happen to be on the wrong side of it. It hasn't been the norm for guys with such little TT to be hired anyways and is only a recent occurrence so you shouldn't have expected it anyways.

Your arguments only give ammunition to people that want to raise the retirement age above 65 as that is "arbitrary" as well. If they win their argument, this one is moot as there won't be any hiring for long time.

BTW,are you 21? Because the NPRM allows for a Frozen ATP for people under the age of 23 with the hours so I don't know what everyone is complaining about. The NPRM also requires a 1,000 hours 121 SIC before upgrade so you won't see the low time street captains anymore as well.
Click to expand...

No, I'm 24, with an ATP, and not interested in working for the airlines - doesn't even effect me at the moment - that said, I don't think there should be any legal requirement other than experience. Just because you were born a few years prior to another guy doesn't mean you're inherently more qualified - which is what this law says. And realistically, while I think if you're flying a "big plane" passed 65 you've probably not made the best life choices - I have to concede that that's a somewhat arbitrary line as well.
 
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