Rough terrain engine failure - lake or trees?

[rframe]

You're about 3,000' AGL over remote terrain in a fixed-gear single when you engine fails, producing no power. The picture attached is what you see out your wind screen.

You are carrying no flotation gear and have very basic survival gear (small first aid, space blanket, lighter).

The large lake below you is deep (200-1,000' deep) and cold 50°F water, there are no boats currently in the immediate area (at least none that you have seen) that you might count on for assistance. The shore is a steep rocky drop off right into the lake with the steep bank and cliffs rising 500-2,000' feet.

The terrain surrounding the lake is all alpine mountains heavily forested. No discernible clearing other than rocky outcrops. There's an occasional view of old overgrown logging roads but are twisty and mostly covered by forest canopy.

Just over the ridge you know there is a large high voltage transmission line cut through the forest, the kind with large towers holding a dozen cables 100' off the ground. Below the line is brush and jeep trails but the lines run very close to the tree canopy making it difficult to access the ground below them.

Do you:

1. Ditch along the lake shore, knowing your fixed gear will dig in, hoping to exit the airplane and to swim to a spot where you can pull yourself out onto the steep shore.

2. Make a descent into the forest canopy and hope you can do some last second yawing to put the fuselage between trees and let the wings take the impact.

3. Attempt to clear the ridge and "thread the needle" to get under the power lines and land in the brush below.

4. Something else?

 

[Bob Ridpath]

You know, it sucks when the lions are hungry. You can't save all the zebras, though.

Hobson's choice, for sure!

 

[BobDDuck]

You're pretty much going to die.

The lake is a bad bet. Chances are the plane will flip and unless you've got dunker training, especially with the cold water, you probably won't survive.

That said, most light singles, you can stall out into a tree and walk away with nothing more than a broken nose if you are lucky.

 

[Cessnaflyer]

Depending how tall the trees are I would take them. But if they are the trees where we live then I would be choosing the water.

 

[Markf64]

Is this strictly hypothetical?
Or is there a story behind this scenario?

 

[rframe]

Is this strictly hypothetical?
Or is there a story behind this scenario?

I fly over this all the time, in fact a couple weeks ago I looked out the side window at the rock cliff you see on the bottom right and waved at a mountain goat who was standing out on a rock face and watched me buzz past his bedroom. I debate with myself constantly about what the "best" course of action would be when flying in different areas over the mountains where often all the emergency options just seem bad. Just trying to think it through a bit more.

 

[drunkenbeagle]

If it was a sure bet, I'd go under the power lines. At least there's a good chance of finding my remains from the air, will save taxepayers a few bucks.

But actually, your odds probably aren't that bad landing along side the lines if you can make it that far. The trees are usually cut back enough to allow light singles/helos to survey them. They usually go right along side.

 

[JordanD]

Duh, pull the chute!

 

[Douglas]

Those trees look close enough together but the steepness makes me think I'd accept getting flipped over in the water and trying to find my way out that way. In winter though, water wouldn't be an option for me.

 

[jafra98]

I would ditch the plane right next to the shore, that's my opinion..............

 

[Itchy]

Going for the swim. You won't know until you're there though.

 

[Autothrust Blue]

(4) Why am I in this situation to begin with?

 

[staledog]

Aim for the goat. He will cushion your landing.

 

[ppragman]

Go into the lake shore in the shallows - RIGHT up next to shore. You want to walk off the wing and onto the rocks. If you can land shallow enough, well, then you won't flip, but it will hurt... I'd shoot for the lake, make sure to open the doors on the way down, and tighten your seatbelt, if you crack your head on the panel and get knocked out your SoL, but stalling it on at minimum controllable speed is probably better than impacting trees at a high rate of speed depending on the size of the trees. If it's just alders, well, that's a different story, but if you're looking at something like Sitka Spruce, or other large trees that won't bend when you hit them...well, go for the lake. Put it down in the shallowest part of the shallows and I suspect you'll stand a better chance than in the trees and hills.

 

[Roger Roger]

In a 150 you're light and slow enough I'd go for the trees.

A heavily loaded Cherokee 6, I'm not sure.

 

[Markf64]

I fly over this all the time, in fact a couple weeks ago I looked out the side window at the rock cliff you see on the bottom right and waved at a mountain goat who was standing out on a rock face and watched me buzz past his bedroom. I debate with myself constantly about what the "best" course of action would be when flying in different areas over the mountains where often all the emergency options just seem bad. Just trying to think it through a bit more.

rframe:

Where is this?

Based on available info, I would take the water as close to shore as possible. Of course, Roger Roger has a point about aircraft type.

BTW, thanks for throwing this scenario out there, I always like hearing different opinions and ideas that I may not have thought of, which hopefully will make me a safer pilot.

 

[rframe]

rframe:
Where is this?
...
BTW, thanks for throwing this scenario out there, I always like hearing different opinions and ideas that I may not have thought of, which hopefully will make me a safer pilot.

Hey Mark, I'm in north Idaho. We dont have a lot of high mountains here, max is about 7,000' but most (I'd estimate 80%) of it's pretty rugged and remote, so this type of scenario is common. A lot different than the midwest farm fields I learned to fly over where there was always someplace relatively clear and flat to put a plane on. It makes one think quite a bit about what you'll do, so I a appreciate some of the thoughts people are posting.

My thoughts so far is that I will almost always go for the lightest area of timber I can find, as I expect new growth to be in there and I can probably get some impact absorption from small trees.

The lake is going to give me the "softest" impact but I know that airplane is sinking in a minute or so and I need to get out and to land. If I have anybody on board who I'm not confident will be able to get out of an upside down sinking airplane, I'm almost definitely going for land and risking that versus watching them drown. Even if we survive the landing on water and make it to land, the airplane is gone and the ELT probably sank with it unless we had the foresight and ability to take it out, so there's no wreckage or signal for rescuers, meaning we are now soaking wet, cold, at great risk of hypothermia, and nobody is going to find us so we are going to walk out on our own... not a great situation even then.

 

[bronco21016]

I'd definitely go for the trees right along side the power lines. I'm pretty sure the trees give you the best chance of surviving impact I think and makes it easier for you to be found or hike back to civilization.

Of course like others have said I think the trees vs water debate depends on the specific aircraft type. A Super Cub or similar could stall into those trees no problem with some scrapes and bruises.

 

[ppragman]

In a 150 you're light and slow enough I'd go for the trees.

A heavily loaded Cherokee 6, I'm not sure.

I wouldn't even want to go for it in a 150 or even a cub - cubs have a notorious habit of impaling you with the cross members above your head when you crash them, and unless you're out of fuel for this adventure, crashing into the trees is going to probably bust the wings open and let all that flammable substance out in a forest that you're either suspended above, or lying on the floor of - probably unconscious. If I can avoid it, I'll go into the place without obstacles - unless those obstacles are trees that are small enough to bend and break when you go into them (small alders, etc.). Plus, too, you give up control of the airplane after the first tree impact. You're not going to be able to fly it anymore, and now you've got a rotating metallic lawn dart plummeting to the forest floor. Find a beach, or crash in the shallows as slowly as possible, I'd steer of large forested areas. What is more likely to injure you (as in make after crash survival difficult)? A water landing along the beach or crashing through the forest canopy? The crash may not kill you but the falling through the canopy probably will - or at least injure you so that you can't take care of yourself in the woods. At night. No, having flown a lot of singles over crappy terrain for smashing into, dense forest is by far my least favorite.

 

[Markf64]

Hey Mark, I'm in north Idaho. We dont have a lot of high mountains here, max is about 7,000' but most (I'd estimate 80%) of it's pretty rugged and remote, so this type of scenario is common. A lot different than the midwest farm fields I learned to fly over where there was always someplace relatively clear and flat to put a plane on. It makes one think quite a bit about what you'll do, so I a appreciate some of the thoughts people are posting.

My thoughts so far is that I will almost always go for the lightest area of timber I can find, as I expect new growth to be in there and I can probably get some impact absorption from small trees.

The lake is going to give me the "softest" impact but I know that airplane is sinking in a minute or so and I need to get out and to land. If I have anybody on board who I'm not confident will be able to get out of an upside down sinking airplane, I'm almost definitely going for land and risking that versus watching them drown. Even if we survive the landing on water and make it to land, the airplane is gone and the ELT probably sank with it unless we had the foresight and ability to take it out, so there's no wreckage or signal for rescuers, meaning we are now soaking wet, cold, at great risk of hypothermia, and nobody is going to find us so we are going to walk out on our own... not a great situation even then.

I am familiar with Idaho. I did grad work in central Idaho, north of Sun Valley. It can be very rugged with very interesting weather. Getting a surprise snowstorm in August was definitely interesting.

Reading all of the above, there are a number of variables to consider.