Continental hiring situation

Deltas numbers....
Year Age 65 Retirements
2009 6
2010 13
2011 15
2012 24
2013 139
2014 238
2015 278
2016 330
2017 386
2018 469
2019 558
2020 645
2021 830
2022 870
2023 824
2024 811
2025 727
2026 626
2027 522
2028 491
2029 485
2030 509
2031 449
2032 347
2033 271
2034 182
2035 122
2036 103
2037 19

UAL Numbers.....
RETIREMENTS PER YEAR AT AGE 65
2012 - 263
2013 - 235
2014 - 231
2015 - 201
2016 - 167
2017 - 228
2018 - 246
2019 - 239
2020 - 271
2021 - 330
2022 - 305
2023 - 383
2024 - 356
2025 - 461
2026 - 508
2027 - 503
2028 - 574
2029 - 539
2030 - 561
2031 - 407

Unfortunately if nothing changes United wont even need to hire until about 2016 just to cover the guys out on furlough.

CAL numbers: calculated with senior list and birthdays.
2012 7
2013 183
2014 198
2015 186
2016 205
2017 210
2018 180
2019 194
2020 169
2021 188
2022 180
2023 187
2024 154
2025 156
2026 166
2027 167
2028 204
2029 154
2030 170
2031 119

Combined UAL/CAL Retirements

2012 270
2013 418
2014 429
2015 387
2016 372
2017 438
2018 426
2019 433
2020 445
2021 518
2022 485
2023 570
2024 510
2025 617
2026 674
2027 670
2028 778
2029 693
2030 731
2031 526


American Airlines

- 12/31/2010 0
01/01/2011 - 12/31/2011 0
01/01/2012 - 12/31/2012 5
01/01/2013 - 12/31/2013 138
01/01/2014 - 12/31/2014 225
01/01/2015 - 12/31/2015 274
01/01/2016 - 12/31/2016 262
01/01/2017 - 12/31/2017 286
01/01/2018 - 12/31/2018 363
01/01/2019 - 12/31/2019 458
01/01/2020 - 12/31/2020 550
01/01/2021 - 12/31/2021 609
01/01/2022 - 12/31/2022 661
01/01/2023 - 12/31/2023 714
01/01/2024 - 12/31/2024 726
01/01/2025 - 12/31/2025 737
01/01/2026 - 12/31/2026 711
01/01/2027 - 12/31/2027 588
01/01/2028 - 12/31/2028 498
01/01/2029 - 12/31/2029 476

Total Pilots Retiring at CAL UAL DAL AMR ONLY by the end of 2031:
(age 65 taken into account until 2028)
28911

US Airways Retirements
Age 65
East + West
Yr Ret. Cumulative
2012 10 10
2013 184 194
2014 243 437
2015 227 664
2016 269 933
2017 295 1228
2018 308 1536
2019 329 1865
2020 306 2171
2021 312 2483
2022 263 2746
2023 299 3045
2024 239 3284
2025 229 3513

Southwest Airlines

'12 3
'13 129
'14 107
'15 140
'16 160
'17 148
'18 105
'19 133
'20 149
'21 176
'22 266
'23 188
'24 221
'25 240
'26 272
'27 278
'28 250
'29 239
'30 222
'31 216
'32 209
'33 171
'34 186
'35 169

There are 462 pilots over age 60 at AAL, there are only 175 under age 40, the youngest is 35. There are 5088 pilots over 50, 2070 over 55.

Assuming age 65, 50% of DL pilots currently on the list will be gone by 2024. For 4 years in a row later this decade, we retire 7% of our current 12260 pilots. It's a consistent 3-4% leading up to that...and 5-6% afterwards.

Usair east side has the most rapid retirements to hitting 50%... which I believe is 2019... I believe with the West added in, that shifts it to 2022.


I've got a friend that made a relative seniority graph...very interesting. You'll make it to 50% at Usair the quickest in 2021ish. DL second quickest in 2024, with the other legacies and UPS in rapid succession behind. WN... you'll make 50% in 2029, and that is without Airtran included in the mix. WN/FL combined has the absolute worst retirement projections by quite a long shot. I believe that it's 2033 for 50% of the list to retire.


Interesting that DL reaches it's 50% retirement number so early. Basically early 2024. AA is projected to reach 50% retirements at the end of 2024/early 2025.

3 yrs later DL will retire 64%, AA 69%.

5 yrs later DL will retire 73%, AA 79%.

10 yrs later DL will retire 83%, AA will retire 87%.

AA figures assume that 100% of the remaining 1900+ furloughees return.
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HRDiva said:
With all due respect, what makes you think Jtrain could answer that question since he doesn't work for NK?
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Truth. Great guys at NK, but I don't even know if they're hiring right now to tell you the truth.

I CAN tell you that I'll be applying to Spirit when I hit their minimums.
 
jtrain609 said:
Truth. Great guys at NK, but I don't even know if they're hiring right now to tell you the truth.

I CAN tell you that I'll be applying to Spirit when I hit their minimums.
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I posted in the thread about hiring a few months ago. We're hiring steadily as we are taking deliveries as scheduled. We've seen little attrition and, for the most part, it's from the very bottom of the list. Perhaps more will leave from the 2007 hires who were not too happy with the contract if the opportunities open up at legacies. But some may not as they will probably be upgrading late next year due to the expansion.
 
HRDiva said:
With all due respect, what makes you think Jtrain could answer that question since he doesn't work for NK?
Click to expand...

He just seemed to have a good idea of what going on in the industry. A good friend that I fly gliders with is a 10 year captain there and I was just wondering if everyone is as upbeat about the airline as him. Sounds like a great place to wrk from his perspective
 
Matt13C, I'm going to be devil's advocate and give the other perspective here. I think the smartest idea would be to finish your training in a way that doesn't make you and your family completely vulnerable. Plan out you finances well so that if you get stuck with not making much money for a while, it doesn't put you out on the street. If that means you need to spend more time saving money before you make the leap then so be it. Even though things are supposed to get crazy in aviation over the next few years, it could continue well beyond the next few years as the world modernizes and more flying takes place. I'd recommend the tortois approach over the hare. Maybe it means you don't reach the heights that you could've but you maintain a safety net for your family. But, just as important as providing for your family is being happy. If you are happy and doing what you love then you're teaching your kids by example how to do the same.
 
Once you separate the emotion from the "dream" of a utopian career, you might actually make a pretty smart long-term stability and financial decision for you and "yours" should you have them.
 
Mattio said:
Matt13C, I'm going to be devil's advocate and give the other perspective here. I think the smartest idea would be to finish your training in a way that doesn't make you and your family completely vulnerable. Plan out you finances well so that if you get stuck with not making much money for a while, it doesn't put you out on the street. If that means you need to spend more time saving money before you make the leap then so be it. Even though things are supposed to get crazy in aviation over the next few years, it could continue well beyond the next few years as the world modernizes and more flying takes place. I'd recommend the tortois approach over the hare. Maybe it means you don't reach the heights that you could've but you maintain a safety net for your family. But, just as important as providing for your family is being happy. If you are happy and doing what you love then you're teaching your kids by example how to do the same.
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Yeah, if I decide to pursue the career, it would be in a way that exposed my family to the least amount of hardship. Ideally it would be with me slowing finishing the hours, paying as I go and then instructing on the side to save as much money as possible before making any kind of jump into flying full time. If I can network into a corporate or charter gig even better. I dont NEED to fly, I want to, but it wont ruin me if I don't. I just try to not live without regrets and it is one of the things I've always wanted to do.

Thanks everyone for your input.
 
HRDiva said:
With all due respect, what makes you think Jtrain could answer that question since he doesn't work for NK?
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During past hiring sprees, it's well known that the AirTrans, Spirits, and JetBlues lost pilots to other airlines. Spirit (just a few years ago) was hiring plenty of regional FO's, most likely because they knew they wouldn't be able to jump ship so quickly.

That being said, Spirit has a new contract and will most likely retain more pilots.
 
Inverted25 said:
He just seemed to have a good idea of what going on in the industry. A good friend that I fly gliders with is a 10 year captain there and I was just wondering if everyone is as upbeat about the airline as him. Sounds like a great place to wrk from his perspective
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Thank you for the explanation to my wife. As someone who works for them, I can only say, as I mentioned to you in post 43, we are steadily hiring. We don't seem to be lacking applicants who are interested in the model, interested in a faster upgrade than SWA and the likes, etc. But they need to have serious time, serious PIC time and several real internal recs. It's not enough to have met someone or talked with them. They want to know about your flying time with them.

As for me, finally, after putting in my dues for a gazillion years, I am living MY dream since 6/17/2010. Best of luck to all where they land!
 
lostplanetairman said:
Thank you for the explanation to my wife. As someone who works for them, I can only say, as I mentioned to you in post 43, we are steadily hiring. We don't seem to be lacking applicants who are interested in the model, interested in a faster upgrade than SWA and the likes, etc. But they need to have serious time, serious PIC time and several real internal recs. It's not enough to have met someone or talked with them. They want to know about your flying time with them.

As for me, finally, after putting in my dues for a gazillion years, I am living MY dream since 6/17/2010. Best of luck to all where they land!
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Yea there two spirit guys at my glider club. The one guy is on the hiring board. He said with the right people pulling for you, you can get hired at mins. They value internal recs highly
 
I don't know that statement that one can get hired with minimums to be true. I have not seen anyone being hired at mins unless you consider 4500 +, etc as our mins because that's what it takes. I talk to new hires all the time and ask them. Yes, they also have internal recs on top of their uber time. For what it's worth, I had well in excess of 10 M total time, tons of PIC, etc when hired. So the company has looked to hire well qualified folks who would have no trouble transitioning into their equipment,
 
It sounds like they're hiring better qualified applicants. The guys that I knew who went there had 0 TPIC, and maybe 3k-4k total time.
 
Not sure about that--I never ran into anyone like that. Most of the people I know hired at my time came from failed companies and were coming with 6000 hrs DC9 PIC; C5 ; 747 CA time. I had nearly 11,000 hrs/6000 PIC at part 121 when I was hired more than 10 years ago. They didn't relax standards since then.
 
lostplanetairman said:
Not sure about that--I never ran into anyone like that. Most of the people I know hired at my time came from failed companies and were coming with 6000 hrs DC9 PIC; C5 ; 747 CA time. I had nearly 11,000 hrs/6000 PIC at part 121 when I was hired more than 10 years ago. They didn't relax standards since then.
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We're talking Spirit right? I def know guys who were hired with nowhere near that experience... They were students of mine who I knew spent about 2 years at a regional before going there. I doubt they advertised the fact but I know for sure that they're there.
 
Yes there were four Riddle Rats, all of whom have turned out to be good pilots (with good coaching). It was an experiment, never to be repeated. All four were the top of the class and knew they won the lottery. They are grateful everyday and eager to learn. Now they all have lots of hours. I have flown with every one of them and can say they turned out to be really good pilots.

OK, Spirit only hired low timers according to Baronman! I'll mention that to my buddy who flew Airforce 2. Every airline hires questionable people. Heck Spirit hired a guy who definately had some misconnects in his wires. He left. Guess where he went? Southernjets. He's their problem now.
 
lostplanetairman said:
I posted in the thread about hiring a few months ago. We're hiring steadily as we are taking deliveries as scheduled. We've seen little attrition and, for the most part, it's from the very bottom of the list. Perhaps more will leave from the 2007 hires who were not too happy with the contract if the opportunities open up at legacies. But some may not as they will probably be upgrading late next year due to the expansion.
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What are my chances with a 4 year BS and 5k TT with about 400 121 PIC?
 
lostplanetairman said:
OK, Spirit only hired low timers according to Baronman! I'll mention that to my buddy who flew Airforce 2. Every airline hires questionable people. Heck Spirit hired a guy who definately had some misconnects in his wires. He left. Guess where he went? Southernjets. He's their problem now.
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Haha....Yes I'm proclaiming NK only hires low timers :-)

Wrong.... Just saying the guys I know ( who prob represent .01 % of the group) were hired within the last 5 years and had a few years 121 right seat time.
 
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