Continental hiring situation

[jtrain609]

A quite enterprising captain of ours gathered a ton of data and put together a huge spreadsheet of retirements. Taking his data for UAL/CAL for instance, during the years of 2013-2020 there will be an average of 420.75 retirements per year at that airline alone. Yowza.

There's no doubt in my mind that it's going to be bedlam.

Imagine being able to get in on the ground floor for that. I have a buddy who is on at Airways right now. They're projecting 5-7 years to hold 190 captain for him, 7-9 years for Airbus captain.

That's holy crap fast, and is going to be even worse over at American.

 

[ZapBrannigan]

They're projecting 5-7 years to hold 190 captain for him, 7-9 years for Airbus captain.

In 1999 I was told on the first day of initial at Airways that we would all be Captains in 5 years. For my colleagues who went back after the furlough, they are just now able to hold E190 Captain in Philly... Which made me a little jealous until I realized I make more than any E190 Captain there and most of the A320 Captains. That tempered my jealousy a little bit... Just a little though.

My point is, don't discount airline management's ability to screw up a perfectly good projected upgrade time. ;-)

 

[Baronman]

2013 will be the year.

 

[BobDDuck]

In 1999 I was told on the first day of initial at Airways that we would all be Captains in 5 years.

That 5 year upgrade was based on fleet growth though, not retirements.

I agree with you that an upgrade time is only accurate when you are actually in upgrade ground school, but in the cases being made here, movement will be due to attrition, not growth. Of course, airlines could shrink and negate growth, but you look at places loosing 500 pilots per year and in order to off set that growth they'd have to be parking 40+ airplanes a year, which is certainly possible, but not very likely.

 

[floridabeachbum]

Glad to see the majors are hiring Age 65 is finally here. All you regional guys, get your stuff in and get the figgiditty out!!

 

[Matt13C]

I am still trying to wrap my head around this. On the surface it seems like a golden ticket for most people getting into the industry over the next 5-10 years and a windfall for those already in the left seat. Obviously luck plays into this, choose the wrong carrier and it goes under you go to the back of the line. But, given the level of retirements expected, it makes me feel like I should reevaluate my decision.

I put off finishing my ratings and pursuing a pilot career because I cant support my family on shillings a week. But I am only 70 hours from my Com rating, it seems possible that if I finish in the next year and can instruct on the side I could be at a regional in the next 3 years. If I choose wisely it seems possible and likely that I could be at a major in 8-10 years and possibly holding a line a year or so after?

Please, someone talk some sense into me and get me back to reality. I can't in good conscience make a move that will put my financial health in jeopardy as my family trumps any career. It seems that with attrition a pilot profession might be on par with a normal office job as far as risk goes now, contrary to some beliefs an office job is not as rock solid, there are downsides. Compounding these thoughts are the facts that, given the recent hit to many mid/upper level managers retirement funds, many are now planning to stick around and work longer to make it back. Sort of scary to think of being stuck under the boomers who might work into their early 70's.

 

[Inverted25]

I am still trying to wrap my head around this. On the surface it seems like a golden ticket for most people getting into the industry over the next 5-10 years and a windfall for those already in the left seat. Obviously luck plays into this, choose the wrong carrier and it goes under you go to the back of the line. But, given the level of retirements expected, it makes me feel like I should reevaluate my decision.

I put off finishing my ratings and pursuing a pilot career because I cant support my family on shillings a week. But I am only 70 hours from my Com rating, it seems possible that if I finish in the next year and can instruct on the side I could be at a regional in the next 3 years. If I choose wisely it seems possible and likely that I could be at a major in 8-10 years and possibly holding a line a year or so after?

Please, someone talk some sense into me and get me back to reality. I can't in good conscience make a move that will put my financial health in jeopardy as my family trumps any career. It seems that with attrition a pilot profession might be on par with a normal office job as far as risk goes now, contrary to some beliefs an office job is not as rock solid, there are downsides. Compounding these thoughts are the facts that, given the recent hit to many mid/upper level managers retirement funds, many are now planning to stick around and work longer to make it back. Sort of scary to think of being stuck under the boomers who might work into their early 70's.

See I look at it the other way around. I think now is already too late. You need to be already in the left seat to benefit from it. I think if I were to get hired in the next two years I would end up stuck at a regional for the rest my career.

 

[etflies]

Matt,

What you say is true, IF (a very big IF) things progress like people think they will. Unfortunately, as volatile as this industry can be, high oil prices, another viral epidemic like SARS or H1N1, or a terrorism scare, or if someone farts while standing on the wrong foot can cause a cascading effect of cuts, downgrades and furloughs.

That being said, yes, if you choose wisely and have luck on your side, you COULD progress quickly in the next few years. Regional airlines are hiring at a steady pace right now, and it seems like there is finally starting to be movement at the mainline level. With some luck, it will hold out and pick up steam over the next few years. I wouldn't count on fast progression and certainly choosing a carrier simply because you think they will allow for a quick rise through the ranks is far from the wise way to go about it. There are no guarantees in this business, today's cherry gig can easily become tomorrow's bottom feeder. Creating a timeline will likely only frustrate you so try not to give yourself so many years to get to a certain point.

The bottom line is it comes down to you, and what you want. If you want to fly, and have the support of your family, pursue it. It will be very tough, and require a lot of sacrifice from you and especially your loved ones. If anything, fly on the side and finish your commercial and move on to other ratings while keeping your finger on the pulse of the airlines. Watch trends and watch the forums and sort through the b.s. and rumors and look for fact. We have a lot of very intelligent posters on here who offer great insight into what is going on with certain companies and sectors of aviation. If, as you progress, you find that flying is just something you absolutely have to do then have a come to jeebus with your family and get their input. If they're behind you and you want to do it, go for it.

Keep in mind today's left seaters at the regional level aren't about to get a windfall. They've spent years at their respective carriers and for the most part have several thousand TPIC and have watched 9/11, Age 65 and various other downturns stick them at the regional level longer than I think any of them wanted to ever be there. They've earned their shot to move on.

 

[mrivc211]

I think American will file right after hiring, I don't understand what they are doing over there.

I have a feeling they will file BK, slash pay even more, then hire pilots at 20-30% below the pay rates they have now. Not to mention get rid of a lot of work rules that protect pay in the event of cancellations and such. As far as CAL, I have no desire to go sit at the bottom of a list with no health insurance, no decent pay, no work rules, no holidays with family for 10-15 years, just so I can say I'm a 737 pilot. I'm 32 years old and have been holding off starting a family because I don't feel my salary is enough to support a family in southern california. If your sitting at the bottom of a regional list, going there is the best thing you can do.

 

[Matt13C]

Matt,

What you say is true, IF (a very big IF) things progress like people think they will. Unfortunately, as volatile as this industry can be, high oil prices, another viral epidemic like SARS or H1N1, or a terrorism scare, or if someone farts while standing on the wrong foot can cause a cascading effect of cuts, downgrades and furloughs.

That being said, yes, if you choose wisely and have luck on your side, you COULD progress quickly in the next few years. Regional airlines are hiring at a steady pace right now, and it seems like there is finally starting to be movement at the mainline level. With some luck, it will hold out and pick up steam over the next few years. I wouldn't count on fast progression and certainly choosing a carrier simply because you think they will allow for a quick rise through the ranks is far from the wise way to go about it. There are no guarantees in this business, today's cherry gig can easily become tomorrow's bottom feeder. Creating a timeline will likely only frustrate you so try not to give yourself so many years to get to a certain point.

The bottom line is it comes down to you, and what you want. If you want to fly, and have the support of your family, pursue it. It will be very tough, and require a lot of sacrifice from you and especially your loved ones. If anything, fly on the side and finish your commercial and move on to other ratings while keeping your finger on the pulse of the airlines. Watch trends and watch the forums and sort through the b.s. and rumors and look for fact. We have a lot of very intelligent posters on here who offer great insight into what is going on with certain companies and sectors of aviation. If, as you progress, you find that flying is just something you absolutely have to do then have a come to jeebus with your family and get their input. If they're behind you and you want to do it, go for it.

Keep in mind today's left seaters at the regional level aren't about to get a windfall. They've spent years at their respective carriers and for the most part have several thousand TPIC and have watched 9/11, Age 65 and various other downturns stick them at the regional level longer than I think any of them wanted to ever be there. They've earned their shot to move on.

yeah, I know a huge part of this profession is based on timing and political/economic/world forces outside its control. I started training during the boom and by the time I received my PPL the mass furloughs had begun. I throttled back on the training and focused more on having fun eventually got my IR ticket.

IF I decided to try and jump back into it, decisions would not be made expecting quick upgrades. Ive been reading this board for long enough to know you do that at your own peril. Id instead go after QOL and the best carrier that would allow me to be based closest to home.

I just wanted to get a few realistic views on the situation. If you look at just attrition and expected economic growth, even if it is an anemic 1% annually, it would mean little downsizing for the industry as a whole. Yeah jobs may shift from one regional carrier to another based on contracts and some majors will fold and others will excel but it seems like the same number of pilots will need to be employed at a minimum. so that would mean between 2,00 and 4,000 per year new pilots needed to replace the outgoing according to what I have read.

My goal isnt to be a 787 captain, I just want to support my family and have a good QOL. If I can do it flying a jet or even a piston single than that is what I want to do.

 

[jtrain609]

If I were getting into this gig today, I'd do ATP's program and try to be at a regional by the end of the year.

The time for moving upward and onward is quickly slipping away as I see things, but that's my perspective.

 

[Matt13C]

If I were getting into this gig today, I'd do ATP's program and try to be at a regional by the end of the year.

The time for moving upward and onward is quickly slipping away as I see things, but that's my perspective.

You think so, even though the retirements really have not begun? if someone would be content sitting right seat their entire career at a major, does your opinion change?

Just trying to get a scale on how quickly the window to getting to a more "stable" airline is. Not talking heavy captain, just working through the regionals and up to a decent line holder position at a major.

Obviously reading an ATP article fueled by a Kit Darby quote would tell have you believe if you start now or in 10 years you'll retire a 787 captain.

 

[jtrain609]

You think so, even though the retirements really have not begun? if someone would be content sitting right seat their entire career at a major, does your opinion change?

Just trying to get a scale on how quickly the window to getting to a more "stable" airline is. Not talking heavy captain, just working through the regionals and up to a decent line holder position at a major.

Obviously reading an ATP article fueled by a Kit Darby quote would tell have you believe if you start now or in 10 years you'll retire a 787 captain.

I'll be honest, I don't know exactly how the numbers break down. There is going to be A TON of hiring in the next decade, but if say 50% of it happens in the first 3 years, the difference in seniority is going to be staggering.

Now I don't know if the numbers break down like this, just that IF THEY DO the guys in right now, and I'm talking about right seat also, are going to have way different careers than those getting in in another year.

Does that make sense? Or am I rambling?



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[Inverted25]

I'll be honest, I don't know exactly how the numbers break down. There is going to be A TON of hiring in the next decade, but if say 50% of it happens in the first 3 years, the difference in seniority is going to be staggering.

Now I don't know if the numbers break down like this, just that IF THEY DO the guys in right now, and I'm talking about right seat also, are going to have way different careers than those getting in in another year.

Does that make sense? Or am I rambling?



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This is what I am thinking. If your not already flying for a regional now I think your going to get stuck on the far back end of this hiring wave. If you do make it to a major you'll probally spend 90% of your time there in the right seat. Is that a bad thing? Depends on what you want out of your career. Remember too though that 121 isnt the only flying job out there either though.

 

[jtrain609]

This is what I am thinking. If your not already flying for a regional now I think your going to get stuck on the far back end of this hiring wave. If you do make it to a major you'll probally spend 90% of your time there in the right seat. Is that a bad thing? Depends on what you want out of your career. Remember too though that 121 isnt the only flying job out there either though.

You're right, it just pays the most for the most days off with the most stability.

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[Inverted25]

You're right, it just pays the most for the most days off with the most stability.

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Im not aruging that. I'm just saying to Matt that he doesnt have to fly 121 to fly for a living. Jtrain how do you think this will affect carriers like Spirit. Do many consider that a career airline or do they jump ship as well to go to the majors?

 

[v1valarob]

If I were getting into this gig today, I'd do ATP's program and try to be at a regional by the end of the year.

The time for moving upward and onward is quickly slipping away as I see things, but that's my perspective.

And go to a regional like gulfstream or commutair, somewhere with a small pilot group.

 

[jhugz]

You're right, it just pays the most for the most days off with the most stability.

[YT]caTez-1wJnw[/YT]

 

[Matt13C]

I'll be honest, I don't know exactly how the numbers break down. There is going to be A TON of hiring in the next decade, but if say 50% of it happens in the first 3 years, the difference in seniority is going to be staggering.

Now I don't know if the numbers break down like this, just that IF THEY DO the guys in right now, and I'm talking about right seat also, are going to have way different careers than those getting in in another year.

Does that make sense? Or am I rambling?



Sent from my T-Mobile G2 using Tapatalk

Perfect sense. I was thinking since the boomers will retire on a bell curve with it starting slow, picking up then tapering off that hiring would do the same. So as long as I (anyone) gets in on the front side of the curve, your career should be decent. I agree though, if you get in on the back side, you'll be sitting behind all those early entry folks who are prob close to your age and thus you wont have many years after they retire to climb the ladder.

By the way, I just got a G2, is there a way to make groups in the contacts to do mass texting? The blackberry was much more accommodating in that area.

This is what I am thinking. If your not already flying for a regional now I think your going to get stuck on the far back end of this hiring wave. If you do make it to a major you'll probally spend 90% of your time there in the right seat. Is that a bad thing? Depends on what you want out of your career. Remember too though that 121 isnt the only flying job out there either though.

I guess to some that would be bad, personally, if it pays well and I can hold a good line with set days off, I would be happy. Being a captain would be fun and rewarding, but I am willing to trade in some of my desire for power and money for time with family and friends doing non-aviation stuff. It would be great to network into nice corporate gig out of one field close to home with a good sized fleet and mostly day trips, but I am not holding my breath. I think most people would jump at that chance.

 

[HRDiva]

Jtrain how do you think this will affect carriers like Spirit. Do many consider that a career airline or do they jump ship as well to go to the majors?

With all due respect, what makes you think Jtrain could answer that question since he doesn't work for NK?