Bumblebee
Commodore
Re: Obviously I can't find the thread on this...(USA TODAY!@
I shook his hand, and felt like I was slimed. So...I'm no so sure.
The infamous "pilot shortage" again...
- Thread starter Boris Badenov
- Start date
Let me clarify.
I'm not trying to be negative, but I've been hearing about the looming pilot shortage way back in the 1970's.
Ultimately, the airlines want a guy fresh out of the military with a 'can do/will do' attitude that is sharp, clean-cut and is willing to do the job for $5/day.
That ain't gonna fly.
The "shortage" is of labor willing to spend $40K to $100K training themselves and the uncertainty of being able to reliably convert the financial investment and career effort into cash and prizes. I think about third floor, dorm five at ERAU my freshman year and probably only about three of us are even in the airline business flying airplanes.
If the starting salary was in the early $80's and topped out in the $500's, system wide, you would not have a labor issue. You could pull pilots out of the military, experienced pilots from overseas, pull people who have left the profession for greener pastures back in and voila, problem solved.
However, America can't stomach that. When pay and working conditions were awesome, the haterade flowed like Persian blood at Gallipoli. But now that salaries in the range that Johnny Frequent Flier and corporate America feel more comfortable with, now they're bitching about 12 year olds flying RJ's.
There will be no shortage, just a synthetic shortage brought on because, for many, it's economically retarded to pursue the profession. Me? I'm in a good position, but if I was starting out, no degree and my career horizon was regional flying, having seen what I've seen, nooooo way Jose.
I'm not trying to be negative, but I've been hearing about the looming pilot shortage way back in the 1970's.
Ultimately, the airlines want a guy fresh out of the military with a 'can do/will do' attitude that is sharp, clean-cut and is willing to do the job for $5/day.
That ain't gonna fly.
The "shortage" is of labor willing to spend $40K to $100K training themselves and the uncertainty of being able to reliably convert the financial investment and career effort into cash and prizes. I think about third floor, dorm five at ERAU my freshman year and probably only about three of us are even in the airline business flying airplanes.
If the starting salary was in the early $80's and topped out in the $500's, system wide, you would not have a labor issue. You could pull pilots out of the military, experienced pilots from overseas, pull people who have left the profession for greener pastures back in and voila, problem solved.
However, America can't stomach that. When pay and working conditions were awesome, the haterade flowed like Persian blood at Gallipoli. But now that salaries in the range that Johnny Frequent Flier and corporate America feel more comfortable with, now they're bitching about 12 year olds flying RJ's.
There will be no shortage, just a synthetic shortage brought on because, for many, it's economically retarded to pursue the profession. Me? I'm in a good position, but if I was starting out, no degree and my career horizon was regional flying, having seen what I've seen, nooooo way Jose.
Boris Badenov
Fortis Leader
Re: Obviously I can't find the thread on this...(USA TODAY!@
I'd just count myself lucky that I still had a hand.
I'd just count myself lucky that I still had a hand.
Mark815
Well-Known Member
Re: Obviously I can't find the thread on this...(USA TODAY!@
I was waiting to see what JC was going to say about this. I had an early show this AM and when I was putting out the paper for the pax I ended up taking a few minutes and reading it myself when I saw the front page. I was shocked it was on the front though! I found it very interesting they would put it in the paper like that. All I kept thinking was "If gas keeps going up or another 9\11 type event happens, the front page will be reading "Airlines declaring chapter 11....again, Massive layoffs....again"
I was waiting to see what JC was going to say about this. I had an early show this AM and when I was putting out the paper for the pax I ended up taking a few minutes and reading it myself when I saw the front page. I was shocked it was on the front though! I found it very interesting they would put it in the paper like that. All I kept thinking was "If gas keeps going up or another 9\11 type event happens, the front page will be reading "Airlines declaring chapter 11....again, Massive layoffs....again"
Apophis
Resident Iconoclast
Re: Obviously I can't find the thread on this...(USA TODAY!@
More like a dollar bill (or more) operated defibrillator.
So you're saying that he'd have a coin-operated defribulator?
More like a dollar bill (or more) operated defibrillator.
Bumblebee
Commodore
Re: Obviously I can't find the thread on this...(USA TODAY!@
I think the same way, my friend. If I really understood the odds against me, particularly at the age I started flying, I may not have tried this crazy game. I am so fortunate however to have found myself in a career position in so few years. I must say that there is a satisfaction from having my degree that is greater than any advantage it gives me in my career so I am so grateful I did it.
I believe that if you really want to do something, you can do it, but the pragmatist in me realizes that that cannot be true for everyone...although I believe that at the end of life the greatest regret would be to regret what I didn't try.
I think the same way, my friend. If I really understood the odds against me, particularly at the age I started flying, I may not have tried this crazy game. I am so fortunate however to have found myself in a career position in so few years. I must say that there is a satisfaction from having my degree that is greater than any advantage it gives me in my career so I am so grateful I did it.
I believe that if you really want to do something, you can do it, but the pragmatist in me realizes that that cannot be true for everyone...although I believe that at the end of life the greatest regret would be to regret what I didn't try.
beasly
Well-Known Member
Re: Obviously I can't find the thread on this...(USA TODAY!@
I would buy that energy drink.
I would buy that energy drink.
TFaudree_ERAU
Mashin' dem buttons
Re: Obviously I can't find the thread on this...(USA TODAY!@
"So boss, you see that front page article? How's about we talk salary so you can keep me around when this shortage hits? Don't want me leaving for someone that might pay me $150,000 a year, do ya?"
"So boss, you see that front page article? How's about we talk salary so you can keep me around when this shortage hits? Don't want me leaving for someone that might pay me $150,000 a year, do ya?"
Re: Obviously I can't find the thread on this...(USA TODAY!@
You know, I take the whole "pilot shortage" thing kinda the same way I do when I listen to Charles Barkley talk during halftime of an NBA game on TNT - I mostly do it to get a laugh, but then after I peel away the layers of ridiculousness I find there is some truth that merits recognition and thinking about.
I think there are certain variables worth noting that might make things interesting in the future.
- Increased difficulty for students to obtain loans for flight training
- UAVs and less pilots coming over to the airlines from the military
- Age 65
- 1500 hour rule
- Expanding markets overseas
Who knows what's gonna happen. It's easy to point out the poo flung everywhere by flight schools and the media, but the truth of the matter is there are certain variables we haven't seen the effects of yet.
You know, I take the whole "pilot shortage" thing kinda the same way I do when I listen to Charles Barkley talk during halftime of an NBA game on TNT - I mostly do it to get a laugh, but then after I peel away the layers of ridiculousness I find there is some truth that merits recognition and thinking about.
I think there are certain variables worth noting that might make things interesting in the future.
- Increased difficulty for students to obtain loans for flight training
- UAVs and less pilots coming over to the airlines from the military
- Age 65
- 1500 hour rule
- Expanding markets overseas
Who knows what's gonna happen. It's easy to point out the poo flung everywhere by flight schools and the media, but the truth of the matter is there are certain variables we haven't seen the effects of yet.
gosleddog
Well-Known Member
Re: Obviously I can't find the thread on this...(USA TODAY!@
just end every sentence that discusses the pilot shortage with "...at the current demand for air travel". If it goes down, so does the pilot demand. If for some reason (that escapes me completely right now) there is some kind of economic boom time that hits, there may even be an increase in demand for pilots.
just end every sentence that discusses the pilot shortage with "...at the current demand for air travel". If it goes down, so does the pilot demand. If for some reason (that escapes me completely right now) there is some kind of economic boom time that hits, there may even be an increase in demand for pilots.
HVYMETALDRVR
Well-Known Member
Re: Obviously I can't find the thread on this...(USA TODAY!@
One thing to be said... "all out pilot shortage?" I dunno maybe... but it is a miracle that at 3.00 gallon for jet fuel there is still a substantial amout of hiring going on. Fuel prices have peaked, now are slowly coming down. Last time jet fuel was this high it was mass furloughs... now even Fed Ex is still doing some steady hiring...
One thing to be said... "all out pilot shortage?" I dunno maybe... but it is a miracle that at 3.00 gallon for jet fuel there is still a substantial amout of hiring going on. Fuel prices have peaked, now are slowly coming down. Last time jet fuel was this high it was mass furloughs... now even Fed Ex is still doing some steady hiring...
Autothrust Blue
Welcome aboard the Washington State Ferries
Re: Obviously I can't find the thread on this...(USA TODAY!@
Clearly the thing I've been doing wrong so far is failing to wear shoulderboards when flying my DA-40 and 206.
Clearly the thing I've been doing wrong so far is failing to wear shoulderboards when flying my DA-40 and 206.
USA Today ran an article on their front page yesterday that talked about an upcoming pilot shortage due to several factors: age 60 retirement rules, increased Asia-Pacific air travel, and the growth of several airlines.
The article also said that there will be over 90,000 pilot spots that will need to be filled within the next 20 years.
For those of you on here who are pilots, do you forsee a shortage? Is now a good time to jump into the field of aviation as a pilot or is the pilot profession a "dead end"?
The article also said that there will be over 90,000 pilot spots that will need to be filled within the next 20 years.
For those of you on here who are pilots, do you forsee a shortage? Is now a good time to jump into the field of aviation as a pilot or is the pilot profession a "dead end"?
Number1atNumber2
Tries to keep it fun.
Re: Obviously I can't find the thread on this...(USA TODAY!@
wheelsup
Well-Known Member
Re: Obviously I can't find the thread on this...(USA TODAY!@
I think, with just a brief scan of the article, it was referencing the global demand for pilots. For example, in China alone, air carrier aircraft will DOUBLE in the next 4 years to something like 5,000 aircraft. That is just in the next 4 years, and China alone. There is some truth in saying "at the current pay levels", however if you look at nursing there was a considerable demand for a long time despite being a fairly well paid job. As long as oil doesn't go ape-crap there might be something to this shortage, especially for those trained and experienced. For those single or willing to take the QOL hit, it might make some really good sense to go to a bottom feeder cargo carrier operating large aircraft for 2-3 years and wait for the overseas carriers to start hiring. You might be in a really good position.
I think, with just a brief scan of the article, it was referencing the global demand for pilots. For example, in China alone, air carrier aircraft will DOUBLE in the next 4 years to something like 5,000 aircraft. That is just in the next 4 years, and China alone. There is some truth in saying "at the current pay levels", however if you look at nursing there was a considerable demand for a long time despite being a fairly well paid job. As long as oil doesn't go ape-crap there might be something to this shortage, especially for those trained and experienced. For those single or willing to take the QOL hit, it might make some really good sense to go to a bottom feeder cargo carrier operating large aircraft for 2-3 years and wait for the overseas carriers to start hiring. You might be in a really good position.
Pépé le Pilot
Well-Known Member
Re: Obviously I can't find the thread on this...(USA TODAY!@
Here, in Colombia, we have a pilot shortage, a real one, and things are going to get worse in the next 2/3 years. Flight training is extraordinarily expensive (think $50k+ for a COMM ASEL), the average airline applicant has a wet commercial, trained to a pretty poor standard, which was fine with the Fokker 50 and great captains, not so much with the Airbus fleet, the learning curve is too steep, the obligation to hold a USA visa, the ICAO english requirement etc. leave a lot of applicants out. And the airlines here do not hire or sponsor foreign pilots. How long can they go on like that, no one knows, but it's very real.
Here, in Colombia, we have a pilot shortage, a real one, and things are going to get worse in the next 2/3 years. Flight training is extraordinarily expensive (think $50k+ for a COMM ASEL), the average airline applicant has a wet commercial, trained to a pretty poor standard, which was fine with the Fokker 50 and great captains, not so much with the Airbus fleet, the learning curve is too steep, the obligation to hold a USA visa, the ICAO english requirement etc. leave a lot of applicants out. And the airlines here do not hire or sponsor foreign pilots. How long can they go on like that, no one knows, but it's very real.
Re: Obviously I can't find the thread on this...(USA TODAY!@
Words to live by. New sig.
Words to live by. New sig.
JOEFRIDAY2
Well-Known Member
Re: Obviously I can't find the thread on this...(USA TODAY!@
Folks,
The pilot shortage is real. It's here now. Many never thought it would ever come. Every day regional airline flights are being cancelled in the US due to crew shortages. This is a new area for the regional airlines who have long operated under the business plan that pilots are a dime a dozen. Their mainline partners will not sit back and watch their feeder routes constantly cancelled due to crew shortages and this will cost the regionals millions of dollars in lost business. But the fact remains that passengers need to get from point A to point B and it still takes pilots to get them there.
Some might say this shortage is not a shortage at all. Some say that the airlines (expecially the regionals) have just not hired enough pilots to fly the schedules. There is some truth to this. However it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. I am hearing regular reports of regional pilots flying 90+ hours a month. When the new work rules kick in, that 90+ hour a month schedule is going to be a maximum 65-75 hour a month schedule.
We are now in the summer travel season and fuel has settled down and bookings are up and there are more flights this year than last year.
Many regional pilots have been moving up to the majors and that is also leaving a void in the regional rosters.
In looking over what has been going on for the past 8 months or so, I personally believe Eagle saw this coming and really geared up to hire every qualified pilot they could find. Even with that mandate, Eagle still does not have enough pilots and flights are being cancelled.
While Eagle was busy hiring every qualified pilot they could find, the other regionals were asleep at the switch. Some are still asleep. They are (or will be) trying to play catch up for a good while.
Joe
Folks,
The pilot shortage is real. It's here now. Many never thought it would ever come. Every day regional airline flights are being cancelled in the US due to crew shortages. This is a new area for the regional airlines who have long operated under the business plan that pilots are a dime a dozen. Their mainline partners will not sit back and watch their feeder routes constantly cancelled due to crew shortages and this will cost the regionals millions of dollars in lost business. But the fact remains that passengers need to get from point A to point B and it still takes pilots to get them there.
Some might say this shortage is not a shortage at all. Some say that the airlines (expecially the regionals) have just not hired enough pilots to fly the schedules. There is some truth to this. However it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. I am hearing regular reports of regional pilots flying 90+ hours a month. When the new work rules kick in, that 90+ hour a month schedule is going to be a maximum 65-75 hour a month schedule.
We are now in the summer travel season and fuel has settled down and bookings are up and there are more flights this year than last year.
Many regional pilots have been moving up to the majors and that is also leaving a void in the regional rosters.
In looking over what has been going on for the past 8 months or so, I personally believe Eagle saw this coming and really geared up to hire every qualified pilot they could find. Even with that mandate, Eagle still does not have enough pilots and flights are being cancelled.
While Eagle was busy hiring every qualified pilot they could find, the other regionals were asleep at the switch. Some are still asleep. They are (or will be) trying to play catch up for a good while.
Joe