Mattio
Well-Known Member
Define shortage. Meaning they can't find major pilots and they have to sponsor cadets? Or more like the regionals can't find enough pilots and they have to raise pay?
Possibilites of a pilot shortage
- Thread starter middies10
- Start date
Define shortage. Meaning they can't find major pilots and they have to sponsor cadets? Or more like the regionals can't find enough pilots and they have to raise pay?
I doubt it.
Supply may get tight, but if supply did get tight and the cash and prizes went up to reflect that, you might pull some people back into the workforce.
I would heavily advise against making any career plans based up any type of anticipated shortage. Oil prices and global turmoil may actually create surpluses.
If you're talking about a shortage of overall pilots, then I'm going to have to say no. But if you are talking about a shortage of pilots willing to make aviation a career because of low starting pay then I would say yes it is quite a possibility, especially considering the regionals.
I'll use myself as an example:
I have an instructing job in southern california at a great flight school and they keep me about as busy as I want to be. Although I'm not going to get rich anytime soon, I am making enough to live on comfortably and I'm home every night. I'm 24 years old living at the beach in an area dominated by other 20 somethings with plenty of fun stuff to do on my days off and some of the best nightlife in the country right in my backyard. Why would I want to leave this for a regional job? I would rather just live it up here and build my time for awhile until I either move up in the company or find a good 135 job. That's just me though...
I'll use myself as an example:
I have an instructing job in southern california at a great flight school and they keep me about as busy as I want to be. Although I'm not going to get rich anytime soon, I am making enough to live on comfortably and I'm home every night. I'm 24 years old living at the beach in an area dominated by other 20 somethings with plenty of fun stuff to do on my days off and some of the best nightlife in the country right in my backyard. Why would I want to leave this for a regional job? I would rather just live it up here and build my time for awhile until I either move up in the company or find a good 135 job. That's just me though...
Richman
JC’s Resident Curmudgeon
There, fixed it for you.
If the regionals want to fix their "shortage", then they need to pay the going rate for experienced pilots. Once that is done, the "shortage" would fix itself overnight.
Everything else is fluff.
Richman
JOEFRIDAY2
Well-Known Member
I know a pilot shortage has been talked about for years. I know it has never happened before.
I'm probably the only one that will go on record predicting a pilot shortage over the next 12 months. I predict that it will get so severe that planes will have to be parked starting in August. Right now it appears that Eagle is stockpiling pilots. That will put Eagle in a competitive advantage as this pilot shortage really kicks in.
By the time most of the other regionals figure out they are going to need a lot of pilots BECAUSE OF THE WORK RULE CHANGES that are supposed to take effect on August 1, 2011--there will not be enough pilots to fill the positions even if they reduce the minimums to 250 hours.
That's my take on it.
Joe
I'm probably the only one that will go on record predicting a pilot shortage over the next 12 months. I predict that it will get so severe that planes will have to be parked starting in August. Right now it appears that Eagle is stockpiling pilots. That will put Eagle in a competitive advantage as this pilot shortage really kicks in.
By the time most of the other regionals figure out they are going to need a lot of pilots BECAUSE OF THE WORK RULE CHANGES that are supposed to take effect on August 1, 2011--there will not be enough pilots to fill the positions even if they reduce the minimums to 250 hours.
That's my take on it.
Joe
Autothrust Blue
”…trusting ze process…”
Well, I guess that's good for us who aren't yet in (and are looking to get in), and simultaneously scares the crap out of me.
Boris Badenov
Fortis Leader
Heh. I will go on record stating that the slow unwinding of the fantasy-based western economies of the last 50 or so years will eat whatever theoretical shortfalls there might be and come back for seconds. Winner owes loser a beer...and remember I'm saying that at great disadvantage to myself, since if I'm right, a beer will cost half my paycheck.
CirrusMonkey
No Real Usefulness
Then I would like to go on record as saying that there will be a pilot curtailment, dearth, defalcation, deficit, failure, inadequacy, insufficiency, lack, lapse, leanness, paucity, pinch, poverty, scantiness, scarcity, shortfall, tightness, underage, want, weakness of pilots in the near future....
(Yes I did cut and paste from thesaurus.com)
(Yes I did cut and paste from thesaurus.com)
panman-pilot
Well-Known Member
According to the International Civil Aviation Organization, they think so!
Action needed to avoid aviation staff shortages: ICAO
DATE:17/03/11
SOURCE:Flight International
The International Civil Aviation Organisation is warning that early action is required if serious shortages of pilots, maintenance personnel and air traffic controllers are to be averted over the next 20 years. It says that the number of commercially operated aircraft will jump from 61,833 in 2010 to 151,565 in 2030, with annual departures doubling to almost 52 million. Such large rises would more than double the numbers of pilots, maintenance workers and controllers now working, concludes a study undertaken on behalf of the organisation. However, the capacity of existing training facilities fails to keep pace with the required increase in personnel. If matters do not improve there will be a cumulative shortfall in training capacity over the next two decades equivalent to 160,000 pilots, 360,000 maintenance personnel and 40,000 air traffic controllers, says the report. "If no action to increase training capacity is initiated early, shortages in qualified aviation personnel are likely," says ICAO secretary general Raymond Benjamin. ICAO last year convened a conference, Next Generation of Aviation Professionals, that outlined a strategy to recruit, train and retain aviation personnel. A follow-up event is planned for April 2012.
Action needed to avoid aviation staff shortages: ICAO
DATE:17/03/11
SOURCE:Flight International
The International Civil Aviation Organisation is warning that early action is required if serious shortages of pilots, maintenance personnel and air traffic controllers are to be averted over the next 20 years. It says that the number of commercially operated aircraft will jump from 61,833 in 2010 to 151,565 in 2030, with annual departures doubling to almost 52 million. Such large rises would more than double the numbers of pilots, maintenance workers and controllers now working, concludes a study undertaken on behalf of the organisation. However, the capacity of existing training facilities fails to keep pace with the required increase in personnel. If matters do not improve there will be a cumulative shortfall in training capacity over the next two decades equivalent to 160,000 pilots, 360,000 maintenance personnel and 40,000 air traffic controllers, says the report. "If no action to increase training capacity is initiated early, shortages in qualified aviation personnel are likely," says ICAO secretary general Raymond Benjamin. ICAO last year convened a conference, Next Generation of Aviation Professionals, that outlined a strategy to recruit, train and retain aviation personnel. A follow-up event is planned for April 2012.
boondr
Penalty Vectorer
I am hoping you're wrong, all the while knowing you're right.
HVYMETALDRVR
Well-Known Member
Its pretty hard to have a complete industry-wide pilot shortage since not all companies are equal. Netjets, Delta, Southwest, Fed-Ex, UPS and others like these I don't think have ever seen a pilot shortage to be honest, I know in 2007 when things were rockin' Fed-Ex was getting flooded with resumes because thats where everyone was running too. Commutair, Gulfstream, Colgan, are currently having a small pilot shortage but with the QOL they offer if things continue the word may become "mass exodus." As for parking planes by the Fall? its possible but that depends on the price of gas which isn't in our favor right now.
Here's some factors pushing a pilot shortage...
In the mid 90s up to 9/11/2001 the FAA was awarding about 75-90,000 Student Pilot certs per year, after 9/11 the number dropped and stayed around 40,000, by 2005 it was back up to 60,000. Its now been at and stayed at 40-45,000 since the recession though it is predicted to slowly rise back towards the end of the decade.
New duty day regs designed to fight fatigue which are forcing companies to increase they're staffing... okay nuff said
Large numbers of retirements already happening anyway, compounded by the age 65 rule coming up next year.
There is an ever expanding demand for air travel as more people can afford to fly every year and the increase in aircraft in the skies.
The cat is out of the bag that pilots don't make as much money as they used to and as Sully put it, a lot of good talented people avoid the industry for more lucrative careers.
Here are some factors stopping a pilot shortage...
Gas prices getting stupid again.
The increase and automation and dissappearing FEs and augmented crew members in the cockpit.
Possiblility of increasing duty days for non-stop long haul flights.
Dissappearance of the Essential Air Service Act-EAS.
As a matter of opinion I don't want a massive shortage, just because it will probably burst and be followed by another freeze. Nothing lasts forever and I'm sick of this annoying game of music chairs "quick get your time and get out before the music stops." Lets just see some smooth and steady hiring, which pushes a fair improvement in QOL and pay, and if/when things slow down again its gradual and predictable instead of what happened in 2009 when there were furloughed heavy FOs applying for CFI jobs at my flight school. Least thats my opinion anyways.
Here's some factors pushing a pilot shortage...
In the mid 90s up to 9/11/2001 the FAA was awarding about 75-90,000 Student Pilot certs per year, after 9/11 the number dropped and stayed around 40,000, by 2005 it was back up to 60,000. Its now been at and stayed at 40-45,000 since the recession though it is predicted to slowly rise back towards the end of the decade.
New duty day regs designed to fight fatigue which are forcing companies to increase they're staffing... okay nuff said
Large numbers of retirements already happening anyway, compounded by the age 65 rule coming up next year.
There is an ever expanding demand for air travel as more people can afford to fly every year and the increase in aircraft in the skies.
The cat is out of the bag that pilots don't make as much money as they used to and as Sully put it, a lot of good talented people avoid the industry for more lucrative careers.
Here are some factors stopping a pilot shortage...
Gas prices getting stupid again.
The increase and automation and dissappearing FEs and augmented crew members in the cockpit.
Possiblility of increasing duty days for non-stop long haul flights.
Dissappearance of the Essential Air Service Act-EAS.
As a matter of opinion I don't want a massive shortage, just because it will probably burst and be followed by another freeze. Nothing lasts forever and I'm sick of this annoying game of music chairs "quick get your time and get out before the music stops." Lets just see some smooth and steady hiring, which pushes a fair improvement in QOL and pay, and if/when things slow down again its gradual and predictable instead of what happened in 2009 when there were furloughed heavy FOs applying for CFI jobs at my flight school. Least thats my opinion anyways.