ICAO 2009 Journal #6 - Now Hiring.

surreal1221

surreal1221

Well-Known Member
I'm not huge PILOT SHORTAGE fanboi, but for those of us who enjoy respectable reading. . .do enjoy.

http://www.icao.int/icao/en/jr/2009/6406_en.pdf

Industry research has revealed that, within
just ten years time, global commercial
aviation will be facing shortfalls of over
200,000 pilots and 400,000 skilled
maintenance personnel. To address this
potentially critical crisis to aviation
operations, ICAO has launched the Next
Generation Aviation Professionals (NGAP)
initiative—building on and complimenting
the work of the IATA Training and
Qualification Initiative (ITQI).
NGAP stakeholders established a Task
Force which is now quantifying the scope
of current and pending shortages and
identifying barriers to entry and methods
to address them. The Journal caught up
to the NGAP Task Force in late 2009 as it
reviewed the status of its activities and
established the priorities for the coming
march 2010 ICAO NGAP Symposium.
Click to expand...

The predictions are seemingly dire. Aviation will require
207,600 new pilots by 2018; 352,900 by 2026. Maintenance
personnel figures are even more dramatic, with the IATA
Training and Qualification Initiative (ITQI) projections now
indicating that 405,500 aircraft mechanics will be needed to
fill new and existing positions as of 2018, and almost three
quarters of a million (739,000) by 2026 (readers may wish to
review a more detailed account of the ITQI 2009 projections in
the table on page 8).
Click to expand...

“When revenues begin to diminish it can be difficult to maintain
a focus on longer-term, more strategic priorities, but my
team and I stressed to the major players that, regardless of
2008 and 2009 industry results, a pilot shortage was coming
and a serious need remained to review pilot and maintenance
worker training requirements. These were decades old
and out-of-step with contemporary industry priorities.”
– Günther matschnigg, IATA
Click to expand...
 
Anyone who doesn't believe a pilot shortage is coming is delusional. Most people recognized it after the regional hiring spree of `05-`07.

I can see the Kit Darby jokes coming, but almost every airline organization included RAA, ALPA, has acknowledged the pilot shortage coming. I'm even starting to believe 65 was done partly as a band aid fix for this.
 
Trip7 said:
Anyone who doesn't believe a pilot shortage is coming is delusional. Most people recognized it after the regional hiring spree of `05-`07.

I can see the Kit Darby jokes coming, but almost every airline organization included RAA, ALPA, has acknowledged the pilot shortage coming. I'm even starting to believe 65 was done partly as a band aid fix for this.
Click to expand...

How can there ever be a pilot shortage when it takes 90 days to go ZERO to HERO?
 
Let the shortage come! My 500 hours and I will be waiting, hopefully it will get so bad, it won't matter that I haven't flown in 5 years. Flight Review and IPC and I am back in the game wooohoooo!
 
Trip7 said:
Anyone who doesn't believe a pilot shortage is coming is delusional. Most people recognized it after the regional hiring spree of `05-`07.
Click to expand...


I'm delusional, then. There will never be a shortage of pilots. Like was already mentioned, in 3 months you can churn 'em out. All you need is about a 6 month lead time, and there'll be plenty. There may be a shortage of QUALIFIED pilots for the position, but as long as places like ATP, JetU, etc are around and people can get financing, there won't be a pilot shortage. It's been "right around the corner" for decades. Back in the "Big Boom of 06-07" I don't think regionals were saying "Oh man! What are we gonna do! We just don't have enough applications!" Even low tier regionals like Pinnacle and Colgan had plenty of applicants. All they had to do was lower the mins to those that were applying.

Now, if the gov't passes the 1500TT/ATP rule without any kind of loopholes, then things might be different. Barring that, it won't be any worse than what we saw a couple of years ago, which was hardly a "shortage."
 
Trip7 said:
Most people recognized it after the regional hiring spree of `05-`07.
Click to expand...

The "hiring spree" of 05 to 07 was because regional airlines were grabbing new RJs like a fat man in a candy store. Hopefully that won't be happening again.
 
Plus the ICAO is looking at the global pilot supply/demand, not US centric. There will NEVER be a shortage of pilots in the US, especially with our easy access to training and GA. There MAY be a shortage of people willing and able to be expat pilots in the macro sense globally with JAA licensees and so forth.
 
BobDDuck said:
The "hiring spree" of 05 to 07 was because regional airlines were grabbing new RJs like a fat man in a candy store. Hopefully that won't be happening again.
Click to expand...

OldTownPilot said:
Plus the ICAO is looking at the global pilot supply/demand, not US centric. There will NEVER be a shortage of pilots in the US, especially with our easy access to training and GA. There MAY be a shortage of people willing and able to be expat pilots in the macro sense globally with JAA licensees and so forth.
Click to expand...

ASA was losing 30 pilots a MONTH to attrition when I got hired in late 07 so it wasn't because of new RJs towards the end. 2002-2004 was the rise of the RJs.

There will be a shortage in the US when as ATN pilot so eloquently put it, the Geezers start retiring. There will never be a shortage at the majors but there will be a shortage in the industry. Some regionals may be forced out of business due to lack of pilots.
 
Trip7 said:
ASA was losing 30 pilots a MONTH to attrition when I got hired in late 07 so it wasn't because of new RJs towards the end. 2002-2004 was the rise of the RJs.
Click to expand...

Were any FOs jumping ship to Compass or XJ?

There will be a shortage in the US when as ATN pilot so eloquently put it, the Geezers start retiring. There will never be a shortage at the majors but there will be a shortage in the industry. Some regionals may be forced out of business due to lack of pilots.
Click to expand...

Doubtful. The regionals have guys on furlough a plenty right now. Once things start rolling again, they'll slowly start recalling. By the time those guys all get back on the line, they'll be plenty of guys in the pipeline to fill the empty spots. How many CFIs have been stuck in the stagnation? Pretty sure ATP hasn't shut down, so there are all of those guys looking to fill a CFI slot once they move on. And then, ATP and the other zero to hero schools aren't gonna STOP training people. Even if the regionals have a temp minimum of 1500-2000, they'll be fine. If they're able to lower it right back down to wet ink on a CMEL, they'll be just fine. No critical shortage, and no one will be forced out of business due to lack of new hires.
 
kellwolf said:
Were any FOs jumping ship to Compass or XJ?



Doubtful. The regionals have guys on furlough a plenty right now. Once things start rolling again, they'll slowly start recalling. By the time those guys all get back on the line, they'll be plenty of guys in the pipeline to fill the empty spots. How many CFIs have been stuck in the stagnation? Pretty sure ATP hasn't shut down, so there are all of those guys looking to fill a CFI slot once they move on. And then, ATP and the other zero to hero schools aren't gonna STOP training people. Even if the regionals have a temp minimum of 1500-2000, they'll be fine. If they're able to lower it right back down to wet ink on a CMEL, they'll be just fine. No critical shortage, and no one will be forced out of business due to lack of new hires.
Click to expand...

I'll look for the numbers again, but statistically in the next 15-20 years, the majors could empty EVERY regional seniority list and that wouldn't replace everyone. What does that say for the regionals?
 
You're right, the numbers don't lie. But, you're looking at it from a purely objective level. I've flown with many, many newbies in my aviation career and who's to say that won't repeat itself over the next 15-20 years. There's the reality that people will retire and there are numerous accelerated pipelines for people to choose from. Trip7, you make it sound like it will be catastrophic, when really, it will look just like any other hiring spree. Personally, I think we need to discern the difference between long term and short term shortages and how we define them, for these discussions. I think there are a lot of specifics that we can actually agree on.
 
Back in 05-07 you had large scale movement due to the majors hiring, coupled with HUGE growth in the regional sector. Marcus, even "when the geezers retire" you will not have that huge regional growth again.
 
OldTownPilot said:
Back in 05-07 you had large scale movement due to the majors hiring, coupled with HUGE growth in the regional sector. Marcus, even "when the geezers retire" you will not have that huge regional growth again.
Click to expand...

The geezers......

Man, there's a whole lot of hate for the elders in the airlines....:)
 
I remember the looming shortage when I first started training for my private in 1991. Then there was the coming shortage of 1999. The shortage of 2005. None of them materialized.

What happened was there was a need for pilots and, as it turned out, there were plenty in the pipeline waiting for a job. It just all depended how low the requirements were. There have always been thousands of resumes on file.

If the 1500TT rule ever comes about then, I suspect, there will be a short-term shortage of qualified applicants for about two years. After that everything will return to normal.
 
Yea I don't see it happening, either.

There will never be a shortage of starry eyed teenagers ready to jump in the cockpit to experience their airline adventure.
 
wzgrza said:
Yea I don't see it happening, either.

There will never be a shortage of starry eyed teenagers ready to jump in the cockpit to experience their airline adventure.
Click to expand...
Nope, not now...not in 10 years. There will always be thousands of resumes on file that can be used to fill any vacancy that might exist at every single major airline. And with the regionals there will always be thousands of young kids just chomping at the bit to get their shot in the airline world.

Another thing to take into consideration is that the seniority lists of majors have been shrinking steadily since 2001. While the numbers might support that every regional could be dumped to replace the retirements over the next 20 years, think about how many of those positions will not need to be filled due to more outsourcing, capacity reductions, or increased "code shares".....which is the next big thing in terms of farming out flying in my opinion.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top