Hootie
Old Skool
The government has NO CLUE what will happen in 4-5 years on any matter. Just driving through the fog at 100mph is how they like it. Long term planning is a very thought provoking concept though.
new 1500 hour rule and pilot pay
- Thread starter embraer07
- Start date
The government has NO CLUE what will happen in 4-5 years on any matter. Just driving through the fog at 100mph is how they like it. Long term planning is a very thought provoking concept though.
3enginejock
Well-Known Member
There is evidence to back it up. Someone posted awhile back the number of retirements American Airlines alone was going to have and it was not a small number.
All we can do is wait and see. But I have a feeling this bill will be swept under the rug in the Senate never to be heard from again.
All we can do is wait and see. But I have a feeling this bill will be swept under the rug in the Senate never to be heard from again.
Hootie
Old Skool
Agreed.
No doubt its a respectable career. But the current economics behind the business don't support anything that resembles what was once experienced at some time in the past.
SlumTodd_Millionaire
Most Hated Member
Wanna place bets?
kellwolf
Piece of Trash
There may be a shortage of QUALIFIED pilots at the regional level. There's plenty of guys that have been languishing at the regionals for a few years now that places like American will be just fine. The regionals might actually have to increase pay and benefits to attract guys flying freight, though.
B767
Well-Known Member
Just to play devil's advocate here...
If the regionals increase pay and benefits to attract freight guys, then there will be more 135 openings, with a 1200TT requirement. As 3engine said, with less students these days and CFIs having trouble finding jobs, would there then be a "shortage" at the 135 level?
I wouldn't think so. There's a pretty good supply of CFIs out there right now with that kind of time (1200+). And then there's the bunch of low time CFIs right behind them that are having problems finding jobs right now (as you mentioned) that would really like it if those other guys vacated some slots for them.
And so it goes.
USMCmech
Well-Known Member
While I agree, think about this.
In 3 years 65 will kick in and the economy should have recovered. I don't know exactly when the dam is going to break, but when it does things are going to happen FAST.
Consider the situition at American. AA has 1,000 pilots on forlough, but I'll bet that less than 1/4 accept recall. The rest won't leave their nice corprate/fractional/freight/ect job, or have left the industry entirely. Since they have been gone for 10 years, I doubt many would go back. Even those that do return will be creating a vacancy at Acme charter co.
Then they will start drawing guys from Eagle. Most of their captains have been there 15+ years and are making 80-90K. I'll bet 1/3rd or more will simply stay put since they are in their 40s, hold a nice line, and are makeing good (not great) money. Walking away from that to sit junior reserve FO for 35K at the mainline sudenly isn't real appealing.
Eagle hires new guys to replace everybody that leaves. After 18 months they run out of desperate CFIs. They can NOT hire anybody without an ATP, so how do they get Johnny freight dawg out of his Baron since he won't/can't take the pay cut? They will have to raise pay.
If the regionals have to raise pay, then that should have a positive ripple effect throughout the industry.
That's my view of the crystal ball. I could be completely deluding myself however
B767
Well-Known Member
SlumTodd_Millionaire
Most Hated Member
I agree with all that you're saying, but I don't call that a pilot "shortage." Needing to raise wages to a reasonable level is not a shortage, it's what should be considered normal. What we've really had for many years is a pilot surplus. Once the artificial surplus is removed, which was created by ridiculously low mins, wages will have to rise to where they've always belonged.
USMCmech
Well-Known Member
I hope so.
I really think my scenerio is much closer than the "doom and gloom" crowd think. Especially if the ATP requirement passes. We saw a glimpse of it back in 2007.
The real down side to all this is that CFI wages will stay low, since that is the only effective path to build the first 1200 hours. However now there will be a light at the end of tunnel. A 1-2 year internship with low pay is standard in many other industries. The difference is that aviation doesn't currently have the payoff at the end that Medicine does.
vikingair
Well-Known Member
Ive seen some cracks showing up in the entry level stages..instructors who have left the industry for what we would consider "lesser" jobs but ones that have more stability/pay. Kids who came out of a Fast-Track program and after 3-4 months say something to the effect that they were supposed to be at an airline by now and don't have the chops or drive to instruct for another year. I can name at least 10 who are actively pursuing the military..not all as an aviator. Those that do make the grade are out of the pool for at least 8 years.
More now than ever the info is outthere about what the career is really like as opposed to what you might think it is all about. Throw in some pretty public articles, interviews and comments about low pay, not wanting your children to follow in the airline footsteps and some of the near comical conditions pilots deal with and paying ones dues becomes a larger barrier by the day.
I'm not saying yea or nay on pilot shortages or pay raises but people who say "never" usually get it wrong since "never" is an awful long time.
The MPL worries me though but that deserves its own thread.
More now than ever the info is outthere about what the career is really like as opposed to what you might think it is all about. Throw in some pretty public articles, interviews and comments about low pay, not wanting your children to follow in the airline footsteps and some of the near comical conditions pilots deal with and paying ones dues becomes a larger barrier by the day.
I'm not saying yea or nay on pilot shortages or pay raises but people who say "never" usually get it wrong since "never" is an awful long time.
The MPL worries me though but that deserves its own thread.
CAPIP1998
Well-Known Member
I like your reasoning, but I feel that I must point out a glaring issue here:
You just used the words "reasonable" and "normal" in the same breath when talking about the regional airlines. You should know better.
Cheers!
:beer:
Firebird2XC
Well-Known Member
Speak for yourself.
I quickly saw the writing on the wall- I've been a driving force for reform, change, and a realistic sense of career expectations ever since.
Looking down your nose at the young and ignorant doesn't help anymore than when the young and ignorant run their mouths when they know nothing.
kellwolf
Piece of Trash
I agree with SteveC. I don't really see a shortage at the 135 level, either. Not everyone there is gonna jump at a regional job for starters (unless they make it REALLY attractive, and then you won't have as many regional guys leaving for the majors). There's a backlog of CFIs that haven't been able to go anywhere for 2 years, too. There are the guys that haven't been able to find a CFI job that would fill their positions. After that, it's down to the students again. At that point, for every CFI that leaves to go to a freight carrier, there will be 3-4 students applying for his job.
There may be a "gap" between the CFI and 135 level, but I'd hardly call it a "shortage."
Boris Badenov
Fortis Leader
If, and it's a huge, weighty, unlikely if, but if this all comes to pass, don't forget that 135 companies can send a guy up single pilot at 500TT, he just has to remain VFR. Everything old is new again!
SpiraMirabilis
Possible Subversive
That's true, there used to be a lot of VFR 135 jobs.
embraer07
Well-Known Member
Bingo. That was my original point in this thread. As bitter as I have become towards the industry these past few years, I have still not fallen in with the gloom and doom crowd and their "never in a million years" line of thinking.
I see a pay increase as a natural evolution in this industry based on changing factors. Nay sayers like to point out how in "their day" you had to have 2000TT and a shuttle landing just to earn the right to fly boxes at 2am in a Baron....and the pay was still low across the industry.
What they forget as that times have changed, circumstances have changed, and most importantly; less people are under the illusion that this industry is what they watched in "catch me if you can"
I don't know what will happen anymore than the rest of the world....but any reasonable person would tell you that this business of low pilot pay along with very high training costs(including a seperate University degree in many cases) couldn't last forever. Just look at other nations where pilots are still top level earners. Granted, in those countries the flip flop wearing trailer park crowd can't afford to travel by plane as much.... but at least the crew in the front are earning liveable wages and are NOT working second jobs in some coffee shop.
sundog
Well-Known Member
My bet is that in 4-5 years it'll be the "age 70 rule"