EWR to PHL

[///AMG]

Maybe I’m not envisioning a crater, which is why I wouldn’t compare it with 2008. But I really dont think these prices are sustainable. Perhaps that is what people were saying 30 years ago too. I just know that wages will need to go up drastically. That being said, around these parts, there are no shortage of cash buyers for $2M+ homes……I guess what I’m really saying is that all these folks who have bought very expensive very basic houses at high (in relative terms to recent years) interest rates…….that seems like a ticking time bomb if the economy recesses….or at least will adjust the market as they offload for things that are more affordable

 

[NovemberEcho]

I don't have a dog in this fight (well, no more than any other homeowner), but I'm not seeing it. There's are restrictions (some rational, others...uh, less-so) on supply, and the Boomers have an insane amount of generational wealth tied up in their various real-estate endeavors. They (and let's just draw the Curtain of Charity across how this happened) generally don't *have* to sell. They might like to (at the current, admittedly kind of crazy values), but they don't have any burning need. Whereas Gens X, M, and Z do need homes. And when you *need* the home, you're going to pay what's necessary to get it.

I think the boom is over, but a crater? I can't see how that occurs. And I've never been wrong about anything, ever.

Boomers going to die.

 

[Boris Badenov]

Boomers going to die.

Sure, and their inheritors will view the supposed value of their homes as dollars to fight over. The population isn't going down, and housing-availability isn't keeping up with the pace at which it is increasing for all kinds of reasons, AFAICT. *shrug*

@///AMG I'm not endorsing real-estate speculation as a wealth-building strategy. I do think that the boom is basically over. I just can't really see the case for a bust.

 

[NovemberEcho]

Sure, and their inheritors will view the supposed value of their homes as dollars to fight over. The population isn't going down, and housing-availability isn't keeping up with the pace at which it is increasing for all kinds of reasons, AFAICT. *shrug*

@///AMG I'm not endorsing real-estate speculation as a wealth-building strategy. I do think that the boom is basically over. I just can't really see the case for a bust.

I may be selling my house so I’m sure it will crash the week before

 

[Boris Badenov]

I may be selling my house so I’m sure it will crash the week before

(*#$)#($ why didn't you tell me? SELL. SELL EVERYTHING. Sell the car, sell the house, sell the children! DO IT NOW.

 

[///AMG]

Sure, and their inheritors will view the supposed value of their homes as dollars to fight over. The population isn't going down, and housing-availability isn't keeping up with the pace at which it is increasing for all kinds of reasons, AFAICT. *shrug*

@///AMG I'm not endorsing real-estate speculation as a wealth-building strategy. I do think that the boom is basically over. I just can't really see the case for a bust.

Oh sorry, if my post came off as promoting real estate speculation, which i can see it may have, that was not my intent. I am also not endorsing that. That’s a big part of how we got to where we are. And a big part of what i think is wrong. Like i said, i dont see a huge bust, but i do see some sky high values coming back down to earth. This area in particular. I’ve seen a lot of (IMHO) overpriced homes sit on the market for 6+ months in my area lately. I also know of a lot of pretty normal people paying $5k/mo+ mortgages on very normal homes, purchased in 2021/2022. I dont know how that is sustainable if the bigger picture societal music stops. Maybe I’m just humming the “this will be a red wave year” chicken little tune though

 

[bLizZuE]

I am so confused how the FAA thinks more than halving the arrival rate into EWR is A-OK.

Best of luck in the move.

 

[NovemberEcho]

I am so confused how the FAA thinks more than halving the arrival rate into EWR is A-OK.

Best of luck in the move.

According to them, United is ok with it if it means better staffing and fewer delays later. They believe this will happen because the FAA has given them blatantly false data, but Kirby has chosen to believe them rather than NATCA. Also next year one of the runways is getting repaved so arrival rates were already going to be cut for that, meaning 2 years of reduced rates into EWR.

 

[bLizZuE]

Adding AVOID EWR to my PBS again.

Thanks for that.

 

[Ian_J]

Adding AVOID EWR to my PBS again.

Thanks for that.

I heard if you’re based in EWR and bid AVOID EWR it breaks PBS.

Seriously though, an upside of being EWR based is you’re usually just out and in once per trip.

 

[Plata]

This bubble gonna burst, though the real estate agent and media mafia doesn't want you to believe it "oh this is completely different than 2008"........yeah, it for sure is, but that doesn't mean it is sustainable. There will be an economic downturn when they fail to achieve the "soft landing" from inflationary forces, and a lot of people will be out of work with really overvalued mortgages that they can no longer pay. None of that requires subprime mortgages, it just means that ordinary people who purchased at the limits of their means are going to be unpaid and subsequently underwater. It might not be the fire sale of 2008, but it will be an opportunity for those who lived within their means.

I agree that a recession is coming, and arguably overdue. Back in B-school we were taught that economic cycles run in 12-ish year intervals, but that certainly hasn’t been the case for a while.

I’d been sitting on the sidelines of the airplane market waiting for a recession and the whole time prices were going up. SuperCubs that had been selling for $55K are now $120K. Bonanzas that were $85K are now $250K. A guy near me just sold his 180 for $225K; when I first started looking it was a $75K plane. I need that recession to come soon so I can afford my retirement toys! Without them my only entertainment will be chasing the wife around the house and she’s not keen on that idea.