Xmas spirit re oil prices

flyover

flyover

New Member
Thought this would be a positive post for the holidays. A present to all whose livelihoods are so dependent on dead dinosaurs. Enjoy!

credit to Ace of Spades http://ace.mu.nu/

The largest known oil shale deposits in the world are in the Green River Formation, which covers portions of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. Estimates of the oil resource in place within the Green River Formation range from 1.5 to 1.8 [SIZE=+1]trillion[/SIZE] barrels. Not all resources in place are recoverable. For potentially recoverable oil shale resources, we roughly derive an upper bound of 1.1 trillion barrels of oil and a lower bound of about 500 billion barrels. For policy planning purposes, it is enough to know that any amount in this range is very high. For example, the midpoint in our estimate range, 800 billion barrels, is more than triple the proven oil reserves of Saudi Arabia. Present U.S. demand for petroleum products is about 20 million barrels per day. If oil shale could be used to meet a quarter of that demand, 800 billion barrels of recoverable resources would last for more than 400 years.

..Shell anticipates that, in contrast to the cost estimates for mining and surface retorting, [SIZE=+1]the petroleum products produced by their thermally conductive in-situ method will be competitive at crude oil prices in the mid-$20s per barrel.[/SIZE] The company is still developing the process, however, and cost estimates could easily increase as more information is obtained and more detailed designs become available. [PA note: even if costs turned out to be 3X, its still economically viable at today's prices] Development Timeline. Currently, no organization with the management,
technical, and financial wherewithal to develop oil shale resources has announced its intent to build commercial-scale production facilities... [PA note: by 2007 Shell had already started ramping this in Canada]



http://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-anal...nt in the United States - RAND August 200.pdf
 
Wow, they would have to dig for oil in one of the most beautiful parts of the country. Damn, how come New Jersey doesn't have oil under it?
 
Murdoughnut said:
Wow, they would have to dig for oil in one of the most beautiful parts of the country. Damn, how come New Jersey doesn't have oil under it?
Click to expand...


Because we already used it all in our hair!! :buck:

richie.jpg
 
good and bad news.

Hopefully the push for a more eco-friendly culture will continue and this will hopefully slow down the process until we get some real alternatives that work.

I wouldn't look for mid 20's either. Why would any company take a 70% decrease in profit?
 
flyover said:
[SIZE=+1]the petroleum products produced by their thermally conductive in-situ method will be competitive at crude oil prices in the mid-$20s per barrel.[/SIZE]
Click to expand...

That's pretty misleading. Who cares if it costs the company $1.00 to pull it out of the ground. They will sell it for market rates.

If Chinese consumers will pay $95/barrel for oil, guess how much we will pay? The same. Companies that pull oil out of the US sell it to the highest bidder:

attachment.php

source: US Department of Energy

If we continue on our oil consumption path consumers will only continue to get squeezed more and more.
 
But if a huge new supply gluts onto the market, shouldn't the market price come down, given equal demand?
 
Cjordan said:
But if a huge new supply gluts onto the market, shouldn't the market price come down, given equal demand?
Click to expand...

Of course it will. But what is happening with things like oil shale and oil sands is millions (probably billions) have been spent on developing technologies to extract this oil. And this technology is rapidly advancing. This means oil reserves expand, not because there is more oil in the ground, but because there are now ways to get it out economically. This is all very good news and reason for optimism imho.

On top of that if all the people that are against using oil for energy stop using it, as in stop flying airplanes for example, prices will drop to nearly nothing! At this rate it looks like gasoline will continue to be cheaper than bottled water in the future.
 
flyover said:
Of course it will. But what is happening with things like oil shale and oil sands is millions (probably billions) have been spent on developing technologies to extract this oil. And this technology is rapidly advancing. This means oil reserves expand, not because there is more oil in the ground, but because there are now ways to get it out economically. This is all very good news and reason for optimism imho.

On top of that if all the people that are against using oil for energy stop using it, as in stop flying airplanes for example, prices will drop to nearly nothing! At this rate it looks like gasoline will continue to be cheaper than bottled water in the future.
Click to expand...

More plentiful too.....At least compared to potable, fresh water. :(
 
flyover said:
[/B]..Shell anticipates that, in contrast to the cost estimates for mining and surface retorting, [SIZE=+1]the petroleum products produced by their thermally conductive in-situ method will be competitive at crude oil prices in the mid-$20s per barrel.[/SIZE]
Click to expand...

The authors of the report are saying that the cost of production would be economically viable given a $20/barrel oil price. They are not suggesting that oil prices will decline to $20/barrel.

Another interesting point:

The company is still developing the process, however, and cost estimates could easily increase as more information is obtained and more detailed designs become available.
Click to expand...

Yes, and there are also many other energy/environmental technologies that the media is excited about, but are missing major scientific and engineering pieces to the puzzle. (fuel cells and CO2 sequestration)

Perhaps one of the most interesting points the report makes is the estimate of 12-16 years until production of 100,000 barrels is reached. Quite a long time to wait, considering current us consumption at 20MM barrels/day.

The oil shale production currently under way has major environmental issues. (I don't know about this in-situ process - maybe it's better). The energy-returned-on-energy-invested ratio for oil shale production is extremely low when compared to sweet crude.

Hopefully the newer technologies are overcoming these obstacles.
 
Cjordan said:
But if a huge new supply gluts onto the market, shouldn't the market price come down, given equal demand?
Click to expand...

Definitely. I'm just not convinced that we will be able to produce that much oil from shale, at least in the near term (5-10 years). It will take a long time to ramp up production to produce enough to make a dent. And I'm concerned about it's environmental aspects as well. But it's easier to just put a bandaid on the problem instead of working to find a long term solution.

Although, I really don't think there is a long term solution for oil, unfortunately.
 
You're right..... but every developed civilization on the planet faces the same issue. With current energy technologies, we simply cannot continue to thrive without plentiful fossil fuel. A problem that nature will work out for us if we can't work it out ourselves in time.
 
Wow, I guess it didn’t take long for this to happen.

Despite the fact that there have been no substantial discoveries of new oil in the world since the 1970’s we continue to think that, or we are told that, they is more in the ground every day. That is not true. There is a finite amount of oil in the earth and we know where it is. We have successfully extracted nearly 50% of know reserves and those reserves were the easiest to extract [read: cheapest]. Information such as you posted here is designed to give us false hope in an attempt to convince people that both drilling, and this case, mining of oil shale should be authorized. The Green River Formation is a spectacular area of the west that, if mined, would create a potential environmental nightmare. Two metric tonnes of rock are required to make one barrel of oil. Meanwhile the energy expense in converting, or retorting, the oil, as it is called, is very intense requiring the shale to be heated to nearly 650 degrees. This energy expense, the addition of greenhouse gases (see the plume behind the engines in your avatar flyover), and the toxic byproducts from the refining process should be enough for anyone to think twice about this.

Let’s not go down this road. We are smarter than this and any god-fearing person knows that this planet was given to us to use and sustain, not use up. We are hitting peak oil and we all should educate ourselves about it. We work in an industry that relies on cheap oil to transport people around. We need alternatives.
 
Ophir said:
We are smarter than this and any god-fearing person knows that this planet was given to us to use and sustain, not use up. We are hitting peak oil and we all should educate ourselves about it. We work in an industry that relies on cheap oil to transport people around. We need alternatives.
Click to expand...

Come on now, do you really think the fear of god is enough to change anybody in the year 2008? ;)

Other than that, great post. I couldn't have said it better.
 
WAFlyBoy said:
Come on now, do you really think the fear of god is enough to change anybody in the year 2008? ;)

Other than that, great post. I couldn't have said it better.
Click to expand...

Well personally I am not. But recent history has shown us that there is huge population of people who are very religious. This also drives there political leanings and despite being god-fearing, they are very persuaded by their faith, even if that means voting for the destruction of the planet, pointless wars, insane government spending, so long as we potentially overturn Roe v. Wade.
 
I don't know how much oil is left in the ground but I do know this. It is a finite resource. And a lot of it is underneath countries that are unstable or hostile to the United States.

The sooner we wean ourselves from it, the better as far as I am concerned.

The fact that we'd also reduce pollution is another plus.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top