XJT contract
- Thread starter Blackhawk
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surreal1221
Well-Known Member
And the show begins.
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Maurus
The Great Gazoo
You just wasted precious calories by typing that question.These are calories you could have used to grab some tacos!
Sadly this is going to end up US Air/America West style for a while longer I believe. People being hard headed enough to stall a merger for years because of one specific issue confuses me. I am not around to deal with it anymore but I hope they can figure something out earlier rather than later.
Hopefully there are some improvements for those that are sticking around. Especially the FOs.
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Blackhawk
Well-Known Member
I think the idea is that two separate contract extensions for a few years does a few things.
1. It brings financial stability and predictability which permits XJT to win flying. As it is airplanes that were suppose to be turned in this year are staying and at better (profitable), rates. In one case XJT was underbid by the usual suspects for United flying. Some of those airplanes were shifted to AAL at better rates and the airlines that undercut XJT for the United flying tried to go back and get more money later to attract pilots. That usually goes over poorly with the legacy "partner".
2. Hopefully better pay for junior pilots. Raising first year FO pay $10/hour would cost less than raising every pilot's pay $1/hour. Everyone in management recognizes that XJT must find ways to attract new hire FOs. It's a Catch 22. Need to attract FOs in order to bid on new flying. Without new flying we won't have faster upgrades. We can't attract FOs without a faster upgrade time. Management does not want to see the fast upgrades seen at other carriers, but would like to see them about four years. Currently eight years, but after about 100 more FOs upgrade/leave for majors the upgrade time will drop by about 2 years. Yes, quite a few FOs have been hired away by legacy and LLC carriers.
3. If the above happens, especially the more flying part, hopefully over the next two years the ASA and LXJT groups will put aside differences and get a joint contract.
The bottom line is that the groups need each other and, in spite of what they might think bailed each other out. LXJT was a sinking ship before the acquisition by SkyWest going the same route as ACA. It probably had a year, at best. ASA was too dependent on DAL\NorthWest and, though owned by SkyWest, was also in danger due to a lack of diversification. if we can recognize that, suck it up and do a joint contract that maybe isn't a home run but is good and advances our industry things will probably be very good. If not, plan B.
1. It brings financial stability and predictability which permits XJT to win flying. As it is airplanes that were suppose to be turned in this year are staying and at better (profitable), rates. In one case XJT was underbid by the usual suspects for United flying. Some of those airplanes were shifted to AAL at better rates and the airlines that undercut XJT for the United flying tried to go back and get more money later to attract pilots. That usually goes over poorly with the legacy "partner".
2. Hopefully better pay for junior pilots. Raising first year FO pay $10/hour would cost less than raising every pilot's pay $1/hour. Everyone in management recognizes that XJT must find ways to attract new hire FOs. It's a Catch 22. Need to attract FOs in order to bid on new flying. Without new flying we won't have faster upgrades. We can't attract FOs without a faster upgrade time. Management does not want to see the fast upgrades seen at other carriers, but would like to see them about four years. Currently eight years, but after about 100 more FOs upgrade/leave for majors the upgrade time will drop by about 2 years. Yes, quite a few FOs have been hired away by legacy and LLC carriers.
3. If the above happens, especially the more flying part, hopefully over the next two years the ASA and LXJT groups will put aside differences and get a joint contract.
The bottom line is that the groups need each other and, in spite of what they might think bailed each other out. LXJT was a sinking ship before the acquisition by SkyWest going the same route as ACA. It probably had a year, at best. ASA was too dependent on DAL\NorthWest and, though owned by SkyWest, was also in danger due to a lack of diversification. if we can recognize that, suck it up and do a joint contract that maybe isn't a home run but is good and advances our industry things will probably be very good. If not, plan B.
Jack-A-Roe
Well-Known Member
I'm so glad I'm out of that dumpster fire.
surreal1221
Well-Known Member
Sam, I'm quite honestly intrigued by your math here...
Care to expand on this a bit to help me understand? There are still quite a bunch of FOs who will be hitting 8 years on property with even 100 additional upgrades...and you must be some form of highly optimistic to expect 100 upgrades in a timeframe that would reduce the 8 year upgrade down to 6 years...or dare I say what will be a 9 year upgrade down to a 7 year upgrade. And heck, I'm one of those 100 more upgrades that would still make it an 8 year upgrade.
Pretty sure you're gonna need to get about 200-250+ before we can say upgrade has reduced by two years, which then really puts it closer to a late 6 to early 7 year upgrade.
What am I missing?
And enjoy that 30+hr overnight in San Antonio next month. I'll be enjoying my other obligation that weekend.
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Blackhawk
Well-Known Member
Because at least on the CRJ side there was a 2 year gap in hiring. I was a little off on my numbers, however. Recent award for captain went to a 923 seniority number. The last 2008 hire is 1105. Number 1106 was hired in 2010, a two year gap. So about 180, then a two year jump. Again, with FO's being hired they don't have to just upgrade 180 FO's until the two year jump. We lost about 100 CRJ FO's last year to major airlines, probably most 8 year+ FO's.
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jtrain609
Antisocial Monster
I was a July 2007 hire on the ERJ side, and if I were still there, my number would still be 125-150 away from upgrade, and I was far from the most junior furlough.
That's a 9 year upgrade if it hits this summer, which I don't think it will. My personal guess is that those who were the last hired before the ERJ side furloughed will never upgrade.
That's a 9 year upgrade if it hits this summer, which I don't think it will. My personal guess is that those who were the last hired before the ERJ side furloughed will never upgrade.
Blackhawk
Well-Known Member
CRJ side we have an LOA that at least 8 a month will upgrade. Not much, but that is the minimum even if no more flying comes.
If we see about 100 CRJ FO's get hired this year by majors as we did last year, that means in 8-12 months the upgrade time will drop to about 6 years as we get to number 1105. The company would like it to be 5 years. Again, this is probably worst case, no new flying. Will we get more flying? We will see. But they are staffing us heavy on captains. We are also picking up many trips that other regionals can't staff with non-XJT flight numbers. Management is being cautious about bidding. 1. Flying has to make money. 2. They need to make sure they can staff it.
Jack-A-Roe
Well-Known Member
Same story here. If I would've stayed id be approaching year 9. That would mean one more year without a pay raise because there is no such thing as a 10 year FO pay scale at a regional.. Why? Because that's wildly absurd! The decision to leave was a tough one. Mainly, because the regionals have a magical way of convincing you that just beyond the horizon things are going to vastly improve. Snake oil.... Leaving was the best decision, besides staying away from meth, I've ever made... Even if my trips last 17 days sometimes.
surreal1221
Well-Known Member
And actually, I'm one of those 8 year FOs that has dyslexia occasionally with numbers. 1091 is not the same as 1019 and thus I am not within 100 of an upgrade. I imagine, if I stick around, it'll be a nine year upgrade. Which will, yes, once all of the 08 hires have disappeared or upgraded, it'll drop down to a 7.5yr upgrade.
It's not as optimistic simply because there was a two year gap in hiring.
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It's not as optimistic simply because there was a two year gap in hiring.
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Blackhawk
Well-Known Member
Again, CRJ side 1105 is a 2010 hire. 923 was the latest award for captain. Over 100 CRJ FO's, mostly senior, went to majors last year. I flew with 5 in a row in the fall that were going to United and Delta, all 8 year FO's. Minimum 8 upgrades a month. If FO hiring continues at this pace the upgrade time on the CRJ side will be 6 years in 8-12 months.
surreal1221
Well-Known Member
8 upgrades a month hasn't even been implemented yet. Once they actually start doing it I'll maybe give your forecast some credibility. Until then it's unsupported optimism.
The reality is that this place won't be able to recruit the number of FOs they need, ever.
I expect displacements before we ever see a 6 year upgrade. 8 CQFO upgrades a month is only a stop gap unless something meaningful happens to this establishment. (This forecast is with stagnant growth. Add real growth, and clearly that changes things.)
There are absolutely no good reasons for someone starting their career to come to XJT except to get an ERJ or CRJ type rating and then jump ship to another operation who will pay you money for having said rating. Unless you're madly in love with the domicile choices, I really can not recommend a new hire to come here.
((Sorry Joe, I've added a lot since you liked the post. I'm sure you can unlike it if I've added something controversial)).
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The reality is that this place won't be able to recruit the number of FOs they need, ever.
I expect displacements before we ever see a 6 year upgrade. 8 CQFO upgrades a month is only a stop gap unless something meaningful happens to this establishment. (This forecast is with stagnant growth. Add real growth, and clearly that changes things.)
There are absolutely no good reasons for someone starting their career to come to XJT except to get an ERJ or CRJ type rating and then jump ship to another operation who will pay you money for having said rating. Unless you're madly in love with the domicile choices, I really can not recommend a new hire to come here.
((Sorry Joe, I've added a lot since you liked the post. I'm sure you can unlike it if I've added something controversial)).
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk.
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Blackhawk
Well-Known Member
Last CRJ award had 9 upgrades. The one prior 8.
The 2010 junior hire moved up 20 numbers from Dec-Jan.
I don't follow the ERJ side very much, but I don't see displacements happening on the CRJ side as no airplanes are going away that I know of. We are actually picking up flying that competitors can't do. We will see what the extension does, if it passes. If it passes and no new flying comes by summer I think even management will ask WTF.
surreal1221
Well-Known Member
I ignore the upgrades who have a 840 or less number. Those guys could have upgraded a while ago. How about the outlier there in the mid-500s who took an upgrade?
Sorry, but that's still not gonna make the movement happen when you're only doing 5 fresh upgrades on a position notice. Which, of course, is not happening monthly.
The year is still, obviously, young. A lot can change and I expect it to. I, however, categorically disagree that we will see upgrades down to 6 years within the next year or even year and a half.
That said, a contract extension is about as good as it's gonna get for us right now. Whether or not I expect it to pass is irrelevant right now considering details are not public yet, but I have my doubts that it'll get past the CRJ pilot group.
If the CRJ pilot group knows what's best for them, they'll approve it and give the Company the time to put up or shut up. Unfortunately I feel there is a great amount of stubbornness that may make this thing DOA.
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Blackhawk
Well-Known Member
I don't disagree with the assessment, and 8 a year is not great. But still, with the number of FO's leaving I can easily see some 2010 FO's upgrading this year. Like I said, the senior 2010 hire moved up 20 numbers in one month. That is significant. I've been around this industry long enough to have seen how quickly the numbers can change.
I do agree that much depends on getting the agreement passed, but am a little more optimistic. We have normally been a cooperate and graduate group, and much like this website the negative people tend to be the loudest. I'm not looking for a home run in this extension, just some improvements. We will see after it is actually released by the MEC, however.
surreal1221
Well-Known Member
I have a sneaking suspicion that this won't make it out of the MECs.
I, however, am hopeful it will.
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I, however, am hopeful it will.
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Ajax
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I think the XJT MEC will send it to the pilots
surreal1221
Well-Known Member
I hope they do then.
I hope the ASA MEC does the same.
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