Willing to • myself out!!!

TonyC said:
Are you jealous? :)



I was shooting for Sun-Sat 5am - 2am... guess I need to try harder.



There's this company that this guy named Bill Gates started that makes this stuff called software, and there's this one called Windows that lets you do lots of things on the computer at the same time. And then there's this thing called Hi-Speed internet that lets you stay connected 24/7/365, so I can make the green light stay on all the time if I want, even when I'm actually doing something else, and even when I'm not in the same STATE as my computer. :)




Oh, and I'm on vacation this week. :)




.

First off I'm glad that you took my lighthearted ribbing...well lightly. Everyone knows that your the most dangerous man in the world in front of your computer and I wasn't up for a flame war. CaptJim got a similar PM a couple of weeks ago so your not alone.

Jealous no...envious maybe. I'm in school right now my day is coming very,very soon. Near as I can tell your a 727 CAPT or F/O. Before the 757 came along the 727 was my favorite plane since childhood. So since I plan to fly for airlines I most likly won't be fortunate enough to fly the "pig." If anything I might be jealous of that...:)

But since I'm willing to • myself out... I'll soon be in the skys as a 250 TT 50 multi wonder in a 90-110 seater being babysat by my captain smiling all the way.
 
I think that by 1000/100 a pilot with a strong aptitude for the career should be able to make a serious move toward the next step of a regional or corporate career. 1500 and 200 getting stronger. 2000/300...a pilot should have established a solid skill set and solid experience mindset to bring to a potential employer at this time.

Between 300 and 800 hours...there's just so much primal formation taking place in a pilots skillset. Best...IMO...to spend the formative years outside of an airliner.

I suppose there's another mindset...and one that's in practice...that it's good to spend the formative years in the right seat learning.

It's hard for me to accept the premise that sub 1000 hour airline F/Os are the ideal profile for the position.

Tell me that it's good to put them in the right seat to groom an airline pilot from an infancy of experience...and I'll accept that argument. Won't agree with the practice...but I'll accept the premise.
 
SteveC said:
Now what is that all about???

falconvalley said:
Fedex pilots fly at night :)

I know but it was just a question of curiousity (wow that sounded like it came from the "Office of Redundancy,Redundancy.) I know FDX & UPS pilots mostly fly at night but as he himself said his lil green light is on 24/7 so I just wondered...you know?

And no I was not calling him out as a "Tomcatter."
 
CapnJim said:
TonyC, I'm on vacation this week too. I shall look forward to plenty of "rigorous debate" with you! ;)
You must have posted precicely at the same time I did.
From the time stamps, it would appear that I posted while you were composing.



CapnJim said:
Without going into too much detail, it looks like you've been pretty liscentious with my quotes to prove your point. For example, my stats comparing regional accident rates from the approximate start of low-time hiring to accident rates of the majors was denounced as not having enough relevant correlation. It was suggested that a more detailed comparison between pilots groups would be more acceptable, but, as the report I quoted stated, those data don't exist.

Which brings me to another point of mine you twisted a bit. I said the data don't exist in records kept by the FAA and NTSB, as per the report I quoted, not that the data dosen't exist at all, as you suggested.
I certainly didn't intend to treat your quotes with loose morals. ;) I missed the part where you said the data you need to prove that 250 hour FOs are less safe than 1000 hour FOs must come from the FAA or NTSB. I apologize for the misunderstanding. If that's the case, then the problem is even more difficult. I gotta tell you, I've made a lot of decisions in my aviation career that were not based on FAA or NTSB statistics. I hope I'm doing OK.


CapnJim said:
I should hope there's plenty of data concerning the effects of driving one's automobile off a cliff, ...
Ahh, yes, you're following me there. The problem is, in order to apply the data concerning the automobile being driven over a cliff to the scenario I posed regarding the Bronco and the Hernando Desoto Bridge, you must make - - a logical leap - - a small leap, but a leap nonetheless. You must assume that what happens when the car leaves the cliff will happen when the same car leaves that particular bridge, or any bridge, over any river, at any height, in any atmospheric conditions, at any time of day. You must assume that what happened to that automobile will also apply to all Fords, or to all Broncos, or to my Bronco. Absent specific data related to my Bronco on that bridge, you must make some leaps of logic. From your post above, I concluded that you would not accept a leap of logic, however small. No, you insisted on data. To use your words,
... without data ... it must, of scientific necessity, remain a logical leap.

My point is, and I believe you will agree, is that such leaps of logic are not only permissable, but they are necessary. We take what we know, and we interpolate and extrapolate to apply it to what we have not encountered before. We don't always NEED data to discern truth. Often times, observation and judgment serve us very nicely.




.
 
B767Driver said:
It's hard for me to accept the premise that sub 1000 hour airline F/Os are the ideal profile for the position.

Ideal in whose eyes?



While I agree with your statement, I recognize that it's not guys like you and me that get to decide what the profile is. The company makes that decision, and I believe the bottom line is - - you gussed it - - money.

What's the cheapest way to fill the seat with a pilot that is "safe enough"? It can be argued by an honest apologist that these guys are safe enough. Experience shows that at that experience level, they're willing to accept the pittance wages. It's a perfect match for a low-cost operation.


I think most of us would agree, however, that the position should be filled by someone with more experience, who is safER, and that the person should be paid more. Just something to ponder...



.
 
ready2fly said:
Anybody else wonder why this man is a pilot and not doing something....useful..with his wicked smarts???? ;) :D :D

...LOL!

Maximillian_Jenius said:
But since I'm willing to • myself out... I'll soon be in the skys as a 250 TT 50 multi wonder in a 90-110 seater being babysat by my captain smiling all the way.

Ooooops I forgot the :sarcasm: tag.Typically post in between working accnts so type quickly have to meet my hourly quota.

Wouldn't want people to start a flaming me,or get nasty mail in my PM box or be associated with 250TT airline pilots. Or become victim of the "phantom pooper" when I start my career!

:)
 
It's just impossible to quantify something that is unable to be quantified. We have an argument going on throwing statistics, numbers, hours, and all this math, but it's just never going to prove anything. A good and successful pilot, regardless of hours, is determined by everything but any quantifiable requirement.
 
TonyC, your writing is superlative as always, but the exapmles you presented are sorely lacking! Lemmie splain':

We know what will happen each and every time you drive any number of various automobiles of various precipices, as we know what will happen when you jam a fork in your eye. But what will happen when we hire low-time Commercial pilots as jet FOs? The answer is: So far, not much!

As to the story about your hapless FO and his dangerous CA- you hit the nail on the head! No matter how experienced the FO, nor how vehemently he insists his claim to be true, some investigation of the charge is necessary or you are falling down on your responsiblity as a CP. Anecdote, opinion, and conjecture are not enough to condemn the man. You need some kind of proof- but how much? Clearly, statistical analysis is overkill, and it's insulting of you to suggest that I would ask for it. This is one man, one data point. A simple meet and greet would do the job in most cases, but if there's falsification by either party, more evidence is needed. How much? That's depends on the situation, and that's my point. The proof must be applicable to the situation.

In our situation it's not one man condemned, but an entire pilot group. And how would you propose we gather evidence for not one, but hundreds of individual data points? Of course! Common sense dictates it! Statistical analysis.

Why not just use the testimony of numerous experienced pilots, who are apparently champing at the bit to have a go at the young'uns? Because thier testimony is not representative- it may hold true for a small number of emotionally-charged incidents, but it absolutely cannot be shown to hold true for the group in it's entirety. The same logical fallacy can be used to prove that all high-time captains are control freak egomaniacs- just go ask some FOs, they'll fill your ear! Is it true for the group? Certainly not.

Well, then, why can't we go on opinion? Same reason. What about logical conjecture? Surely, if the low-time GA guys are shown to kill themselves off faster than anyone else, that apparent saftey risk translates to the cockpit of a jet? Ah, now we're getting somewhere! Why can't you reasonably compare the two? Here's why: The single-pilot, six-pack, class-G wild-west of general aviation flying simply cannot be compared to the automation, crew-environment, technological redundancy, standardization, and training required in the part 121 jet environment. That's why no matter how long you've been flying, nor how much experience you think you have, you just don't know what will become of these low-time guys in the right seat- because it's never been done!

This brings me, in a roundabout way, to NJA's complaint. His argument is that it's not incumbent on him to show the young fellas unsafe. Instead, he feels that it's my duty to show that they are safe. He seems to think that it's perfectly acceptable to condemn an entire group of new pilots, and then when proof is asked for (ignoring the point that the proof he gave he himself later disproved) flatly stating "I don't need to prove they're unsafe! You have to prove they're safe!". No sir, no I don't. The FAA, NTSB, and airlines have made that determination for me, and for all of us. They seem to think it's safe, and I'd hazard a guess that they are collectively a lot more intelligent and experienced than you are.

It would be a death-knell to the unsafe low-timer theory if there were saftey stats concerning mid- vs. low-time jet FO newhires. Unfortunately, the data have not yet been compiled. The nearest anyone has come to any kind of comparison, to my knowledge, was when I compared the number of NTSB reports filed due to pilot error from the majors and the regionals, expressed as incidents-per-flight. As it has been pointed out by members of this board, however, the comparison has insufficient commonality between groups to be be truly damning, but the results are still compelling: Measuring from the approximate time of low-time hiring, it seems that the old timers at the majors are bending metal and injuring people at more than twice the rate of the regionals.
 
B767Driver said:
Tell me that it's good to put them in the right seat to groom an airline pilot from an infancy of experience...and I'll accept that argument. Won't agree with the practice...but I'll accept the premise.

Well, you get some kudos for an open mind.

I'd go with this -- are low timers more dangerous? Maybe, maybe not. But here's the deal.

The guys who insure the airlines don't think so. Otherwise, they wouldn't let them in the cockpit, right?

Now, are the insurance companies willing to let those guys in there because they know someone's going to back them up if they fail, and that someone's hopefully got a lot more experience? Or do they think, well, the risk is so small that it's acceptable either way?

Who knows?

But if insurance companies, who make their money by quantifying risk and charging the appropriate premium for it, say it's okay, then I think it's okay.

Hell, man, my insurance company says I've got to log x hours of flight time in a complex single every 120 days in order to be covered in that airplane. If they'll get down to that level of detail on a relatively low value policy (to them, not me) then I'm sure they've done the math on low timers in a transport category aircraft.

And we've got to prove Goodwin's law so here we go:

NAZIS! HITLER!

Let's also prove the JC corrolary -- surely you can't be serious.
 
CapnJim,

I did not present examples to be perfect parallels to the discussion at hand, but rather to illustrate the absurdity of your refusal to accept anything short of statistical proof that low-time FOs are less safe than high-time FOs.

While I feel like you have missed other points I have tried to make, I doubt repeating them will serve any purpose other than to prolong what's beginning to look like a mud-wrestling match. I think it's time for a shower.

However, I simply can't let your assertion go unanswered that the data you previously presented and then discounted is somehow "still compelling." You have shown that the data is not valid for the purpose for which you presented it, therefore it cannot be compelling at all. Perhaps it is curious or interesting, but it does not compel. :)




.
 
Again you've beat me to the punch, posting while I'm still composing. I wouldn't expect my data to compell you Tony, you're arguing the other side. I think others may find it interesting though, regardless if it proves my point or not.

One more thing-
I have great respect for your ratiocinatory and literary sKizZiL'z, so I would be remiss if I did not address your very cogent argument regarding "logical leaps".

While I agree that such leaps are sometimes useful and necessary, care must be exercised in their use. For example: Once you jump your car off a bridge, or touch a hot stove, you can reasonably assume that it would be unwise to go around palpating any other hot stove you encountered, regardless of make. Hot is hot, no matter what the context, and Possum Gulch is simply brimming with the smashed and besotted cruisers of the hapless Hazzard County PD. A logical leap of faith is, of course, useful here.

But, using the hot stove example, what if you had been cooking your entire life on stoves, in a town where stove-cooking was all the rage? Would it be sage to conclude that the all the horror stories you had heard about the young cooks and their snappy new convection ovens are of anecdotal necessity true just because you are lacking any other evidence? More to the point, what if the young'uns start whipping out soufflés and roasts to beat the band? Can you then make the same logical leap?

At this point all the old-timers in their rocking chairs will dribble confidently in to their beards that "...it will all come to tears, and you just wait till Thanksgiving dinner's ruined! Then you'll see! Only an old-timey oven-jock with x number of lifetime meals prepared can do the job properly! When you're older you'll understand!" Meantime, several Thanksgivings have come and gone with moist turkey and savory stuffing. At what point do the graybeards cease their dribbling, turn back to their checkerboards, and accept the inevitability of change?

At this point, when some not-so-old-timer points out that it seems the old guys are burning pot roasts at nearly twice the rate of the young guys, you can expect that fella will be shouted down with arguments about how range-cooking and convection-oven cooking simply can't be compared, what with the ovens being so much more complex, and the types of cooking so different, "...and whose side are you on anyway?" And we then begin to realize that the concern this whole time is not with burned food, but with the hubris and dignity of the old timers, and how much money the bakeries are paying the younger cooks.

Ah, the money! Now we're getting somewhere! Could it be that this may be at the root of the whole problem? For it seems that the young cooks have been accepting jobs at bakeries for minimal pay, some even stooping to paying the bakery for a chance to acquire a high-profile dreamed-about cooking job! And the bigger bakeries, undercut by the convection-cookers, are cutting the older cooks pay. Here the plot thickens, for we finally have a piece of this mystery that has been missing the whole time-- MOTIVE! And we begin to see the root cause of all the complaints against the young fellas.

Are the young fellas to blame? Some, perhaps. Those from rich families are given unfair advantage for a career that should be based on skill, determination, intelligence, and aptitude rather than daddy's checkbook. But still many others are simply seeking escape from the abysmal wages of the entry-level jobs, which have no medical benefits, poor working conditions, and little hope for advancement. Most are simply unaware that their actions are ultimately detrimental to the whole of the industry, but a determined effort from the older crowd could change that. And it will take discipline too, on the part of the younger crowd to refuse a pittance for all thier hard work and enthusiasm. Simply holding a bias against the low-timers is insufficient to solve the problem. In fact, it's destructive.

Perhaps the companies themselves are to blame? How could they conscientiously offer such poor wages for such an important position? Have no illusions. The corporation knows the name of the game, and it sure as hell ain't epicurism. Or aviation for that matter. It's money. Money money money. Bling-bling, stay-high, dolla-bill y'all money. Anyone willing to cast aside naivety and idealism for two seconds knows that a bee will sting, a snake will bite, and a CEO will pay you .50 cents a week if he thinks he can get away with it. No we can't blame the company and still stay here in reality. We can only force the companies hand- but how?

The unions! If it's not the company's fault, and it's not the young'uns fault, then it must be the union! Yes, that's it. Weak unions are to blame. But really, how much can the union do when they're stuck between the greedy CEO's and the young folk who are unable to be protected under union contract? Not a whole lot. They can lobby for higher starting wages, sure, but that ultimately comes out of everyone’s check- no way the senior guys are going to vote that one in. No, the unions can't be held totally to blame- in fact, they're our best hope. They should be worked with- I wonder what influence they may have if some contact was made with the younger fellas before they took the low-paying jobs, or chose to pay for training?

Well, it seems that this analogy has been whipped to stiff peaks. It's time to put it in the oven and hope it comes out digestible. For my part, I hope that I have been at least somewhat cogent in my appeal to not repudiate the low-time airline pilot out of hand. I think that there are a lot of problems with our industry right now, but I'm confident that they won't be worked out effectively through in fighting and exclusion, but through communication, appreciation, understanding-- and change.
 
TonyC said:
...but rather to illustrate the absurdity of your refusal to accept anything short of statistical proof that low-time FOs are less safe than high-time FOs.
It's a shame he keeps writing such long posts, since no-one believes him or waste time reading his one sided opinions anymore. He conveniently only responds to things that fit his agenda or twists them to fit it. I'm with you, time to wash our hands of this pointless discussion. He is the only one agreeing with his side of the argument anyway. It appears that the rest of us are in agreement. Ok must of us, well maybe some....well. There's actually no data to support the ..............Darn it!!!! Now he's got me doing it. :D
Goodnight Mr Custer where-ever you are.

For the record, I never "condemned" (Mr Custer's word) any part of the pilot group.

PS....Please hit the spell check button in the future Mr Custer.
 
Sure NJA, I'll hit the spell checker- Yup, looks like "condemned" is the correct spelling. Past tense of "condemn". How do you spell it? Uh-oh, look at that!Looks like the word must, as in:
NJA_Capt said:
Ok must of us, well maybe some....well.
set off the grammar checker! Oh! You meant most! Did you misspell it? And don't get me started on:
NJA_Capt said:
no-one believes him or waste time reading his
In short, if your arguments are so lacking that you have to resort to name calling and spelling/grammar jabs, at least make sure your post can stand up to the same.

P.S.- words like no-one and where-ever don't need hypenation. They set the grammar check off too. They're not technically incorrect, just archaic.
 
Come on, guys - enough is enough. You both bring up cogent arguments and I respect both of you, but we're not getting anywhere with this squabble over minutiae.
 
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