will it change?

[Maximilian_Jenius]

Logic would have it that the pilot factory and direct track employment programs have proliferated over the past 5 years due to the fact that the regionals matured like a growing cumulus and the majors provided the carrot of a multimillion dollar career.

Now that the regionals have peaked and the majors no longer provide the golden career, logic would again have it that the supply chain would tighten as career entrants will be unwilling to embark on such an unstable industry...let alone pay $100k to pursue it. As much as I love flying...if I was 18 years old now and spending money on school...I would probably now be a pediatrician or a high school principal.

As the regionals slow hiring...this scenario may just start to occur over the next 5 years. I predict very few will find a regional job as easily as those have over the last 5 years. While the industry suffered over the last 5 years...an abberation occurred for the pilots...the regionals hired heavily...seemingly making the prospects for the industry rosier...therefore driving more and more people to enter the career field.

Now that jobs may be harder to get for ten years or so...(then hiring will pick up again)...the frustration found for the sub 1500 hour pilot will advance (or any hour pilot for that matter...if there are no jobs...you could have 10,000 hours and it wouldn't mean anything)...trickling down to high school students looking at career choices.

When the academies can no longer place numerous students at airlines...the supply chain may tighten.

I agree with everything that you said. Another prediction could be that there will be upward movement at the majors and cargo companies causing movement at regionals in the form of upgrades and newhire classes. That or people vacating this career like rats on a sinking ship and regionals can't fill training classes (Mesa & Pinnacle).So they will lower mins causing mass hirings. But yes the prophetic future you describe is coming soon to an aviation industry near you!

 

[Ralgha]

You haven't upgraded yet...we'll check back with you in a few years.

True, but I've flown with captains (check airmen in fact) who think the same way I do.

A typical flight:

Show up, print out a few pages from a computer that tell you where you're going, how to get there, how long it will take, what time to leave, what airplane to take, how much fuel to put on said airplane, the weather here, there, and in between. Cruise out to the airplane, flip some switches, push some buttons, have someone tell you how many people and bags there are, write some numbers in boxes and do some simple arithmatic or just have a computer do it all for you. Flip some more switches, pull a couple levers, talk on the radio a bit, and takeoff. Shortly thereafter you hit a couple buttons and engage the autopilot. Talk on the radio a bit, fiddle with the autopilot some, change some frequencies. Disengage the autopilot just before landing, land, park. Pull some more levers, flip a few switches, push some buttons, and leave or repeat as necessary.

That's what I mean by cake.

Throw some heavy weather in there, or a malfunction that's more than an anoyance, perhaps a pissed off passenger, and that's where you start earning the big money.

If I remember (big IF) when I upgrade, I'll let you all know if I still think the same way (after I've had a few months to settle in to it).

 

[FlyChicaga]

I'll preface this by saying...I really don't derive any satisfaction by the public's perception of my career. I derive my satisfaction from knowing I did the best I could to reach my potential. Striving for that goal on every flight is a source of pride and satisfaction for professionals. Can you get to your destination with the planned amount of fuel? Yes. But did you get to your destination with 5% more because of the way you planned your descent and configuration changes optimally? The public doesn't know or care if you did this...but the professional in you does...and should provide a level of satisfaction. It will for real pilots.

Having said that...I was watching the PGA Tour in Miami at Doral on TV last week...the golf course is 800' below the G/S for Rwy 12 at KMIA. The golf pro's and television commentators were in awe of the jets flying directly overhead. Many times a group of golfers would suspend play and watch the jets fly overhead. It was special to watch others so engrossed in the fabulous flying machinges.

I don't know too many people who think they are supermen for flying. But it does take a special talent. The qualified pool of pilots and the sources for them are numerous...but I have seen a good percentage of pilots wash out of training when they upgraded to larger airplanes. I was once told that the wash out rate at one of the 'nationals' that fly DC9 derivatives was close to 50%. At another national it was common to lose a pilot in every new hire class. At one major...guys were career f/0s because they could not meet the upgrade qualification. I used to be in the training department at a commuter...wash outs happened there.

So, it doesn't take superman to fly...but you can't be an idiot either. If you see someone in the left seat of an airplane...they deserve a lot of respect. The line they towed to get to that left seat was pretty narrow.

Well said.

 

[Bog]

This job is only "easy" because (a) we do it 5 days per week, 50 weeks per year; (b) we're trained to do it; (c) we chose to do it. I'd be that 99% of our passengers wouldn't have the stomach for our jobs. Training costs? Commuting? Moving every couple of years (or months)? Deicing? Checkrides? Medicals? It's enough to make US quit, and we're the ones who like the job.

It's not easy. We just make it look that way.

 

[derg]

Logic would have it that the pilot factory...

Very VERY well-written B767Driver.

I used to be in the training department at a commuter...wash outs happened there.

But ya didn't get this one!

 

[B767Driver]

Very VERY well-written B767Driver.



But ya didn't get this one!

You slipped thru the cracks again!

I'm off to PHX...just got called out..maybe see you around...

Gotta Run.

 

[Ralgha]

This job is only "easy" because (a) we do it 5 days per week, 50 weeks per year; (b) we're trained to do it; (c) we chose to do it. I'd be that 99% of our passengers wouldn't have the stomach for our jobs. Training costs? Commuting? Moving every couple of years (or months)? Deicing? Checkrides? Medicals? It's enough to make US quit, and we're the ones who like the job.

It's not easy. We just make it look that way.

You could say the same thing with a few subject substitutions here and there for pretty much any salaried job out there.