I should of said that if they flow whats contractually obligated. Which they are world renowned for not doing. Especially envoy
Which Regional
- Thread starter njboeingfan
- Start date
A150K
Well-Known Member
Angry Pilot Central...
Soku39
Well-Known Member
How is this not accurate.
Aa is planning to retire 8400 in the next 10 years the w/o have about 4700. If there isn’t a lot of people leaving the w/o it will take 10 years plus if aa only takes what they have to per contract. (Why would they take more and canabalize their feed?) the 50% and 60% are not accurate but I wouldn’t bet on anything under 10 years
SeanD
Well-Known Member
It is an awful place.
jtrain609
Antisocial Monster
Airline Pilots Crying.
chrisreedrules
Master Blaster
AA will increase their off the street hiring over the next decade no doubt. But there are a number of issues they face (that aren’t unique to them) that will hamper their ability to hire the number they want/need. Delta has tackled the same issue by front-loading a lot of their hiring. The issue is simply training capacity. It takes years to spool up an expansion to a successful training program and AA is already behind.
I would expect the AA WOs to flow about 50-60% of AA classes for the foreseeable future. That plus attrition of wholly-owned pilots to other airlines like United, Delta, FedEx, UPS, etc will only serve to further decrease projected flow times. You figure Envoy flowing 15-20 /month, PSA flowing 10-15 /month (if our negotiations yield this increase from 10 to 15), and Piedmont flowing 8-10 /month and right there you have a large chunk of the AA hiring needs fulfilled. And they will do almost everything they can to keep this pipeline moving because it keeps cost down and because at this point they don’t have a choice.
For a new hire today, I think it is totally plausible to expect a 6-7 year flow to AA from one of the WOs. Upgrade in 2-3 years (or sooner if you desire), regional CA for 3-4 years, flow to mainline. The big disclaimer to all of this is of course no one can predict the future. A lot can and will happen in the next few years that may increase or decrease those numbers. But given what we can prognosticate today I think 6-7 years is very realistic.
chrisreedrules
Master Blaster
I like it. You just have to know what you’re getting into.
flybywp
Well-Known Member
Decided to check the math on this. Added up all projected mainline retirements from 1/1/2018 through 12/31/2027 and got 8,154 pilots. 60% of that is roughly 4,892 pilots which exceeds the number of pilots at Envoy, PDT, and PSA combined. Not even considering the number of pilots who choose not to flow or who leave for another airline.
To be clear, I'm not advocating to pick a WO for a flow, just pointing out that your statement is inaccurate.
tcco94
Future GTA VI Pilot
I would treat flow as having something in my back pocket, but not bank my career on it. I have a few colleagues who love to tell me how they're AA pilots already just have 6 years to go on flow. Not like my shop doesn't have guys going around saying their mainline as well. I also know some who have it but have their apps out and are actively trying to move on to LCC/majors instead of sitting and waiting for the call. I think that's smarter, just IMO.
In this industry, nothing seems to be guaranteed until you're in class or in that seat at a major/legacy carrier.
In this industry, nothing seems to be guaranteed until you're in class or in that seat at a major/legacy carrier.
tcco94
Future GTA VI Pilot
They signed a 5 year contract last year, so I believe they still have 4 years left on it. I feel like people have said this about AirWis for a long time and they've survived through it. From what I hear it's a good company with career growth to United and good pay (for new hires, not sure how well it is if you're senior).
chrisreedrules
Master Blaster
“Past performance does not predict future returns”... or something like that. Just because it happened in the past doesn’t mean it will continue to happen in the future. Air Whiskey is a great airline with a good group of pilots but in my opinion unless you were just absolutely in love with their bases I would not consider them. You can ask a buddy of mine who is a CA at Whiskey with a great, clean record. Turned down for the United CPP and can try one more time. Despite spending thousands on multiple job fairs can’t get a call from Delta, Southwest, or United. American they can basically forget about because the percentage of civilian off the street hires is very very small. No interest in Cargo. Believe it or not flow is a nice thing to have in your back pocket. It is far from “insurance” in this industry but it is far better to have it than to not.
And as far as the flow at the WOs, I don’t know any at PSA accept a handful who are trying to stick it out and wait to flow. Just this month 2 more pilots from my class got new jobs at FedEx and AA outside of the flow. That is one thing that I think sets PSA apart from the other 2 AA WOs... We have a ton of outside attrition. New hires can expect to move up about 300 seniority numbers in a years time and they will have probably another 300-350 below them. There is just so much movement it is almost unreal.
Rosstafari
Hello, this is Orlando mayor Buddy Dyer
If you guys are willing to entertain a more basic question... is the main advantage to WOs the flowthrough agreements? Are they all bound by contract to upgrade people hired under the agreement in X amount of time, or are there instances where it doesn’t happen?
Still learning this stuff myself, though I’m several hundred hours behind OP.
Still learning this stuff myself, though I’m several hundred hours behind OP.
chrisreedrules
Master Blaster
The flow agreements are an advantage of the WOs. Not so much from the aspect of staying at the WO for the roughly 7 years give/take it will take to actually flow, but because of the attrition being generated by guaranteed movement off the top of the seniority list every month.