Which regional will hang up their wings?

mtsu_av8er said:
Is that a prediction, or a hope?
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A prediction. Definitely not a hope. Competition or not, I would never, ever want to see pilots lose their jobs. I just foresee Wexford selling off parts of Republic (or the entire thing) for profit. He has put the airline into over a billion dollars of debt, all while signing new contracts for a minimal gain. A loss even. He has done this before.

Now, if we want to predict what airline is in a prime position to be purchased, I would say ExpressJet. We have no debt and a very low stock price. I just hope if we are purchased, it is not by an airline like Mesa or Republic. That has nothing to do with the people who work there, but strictly the management.

I knew I shouldn't have responded to this silly thread. Shame on me.
 
wheelsup said:
Yikes....from an "online" source:
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meritflyer said:
Normal for this time of year at XJT.
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Ditto on what merit said...

Wheels... what exactly is your concern with that memo? XJT's been hiring like crazy for the past three years... we are finally getting fully staffed and only staffing for attrition now... thus the glut of Instructors go back to flying the line. Pretty simple... and normal for any airline.

I don't see a "Yikes" in there... unless you are a junior instructor and can't stand the thought of going back to flying the line. :gasp: ;)

Bob
 
Maximillian_Jenius said:
Well, did they fix their issues with United, their biggest customer? If they don't get that under control, and quick. Then in I hear (not speaking with authority) that they could in fact be in a great world of hurt!
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The data I've seen have Mesa on par with the other UAX carriers that have started to pick up UA flying and sometimes even better than them when it comes to TCF (total completion factor) and CCF (controllable completion factor, i.e. not weather or ATC related).

I'm not sure how true it is, but I heard that UA was unhappy with Mesa's performance, but when other carriers started doing the same UA flying in the same markets their performance wasn't any better.
 
I noticed XJT has a few votes and a few nay sayers here, so I'll take some market research and post it so you can view the pro's and con's facing the company.

ExpressJet - Definately in a transition phase since being owned by CAL. Recent Q2 loss was a given due to the new venture using 44 aircraft for branded operations. However, with the loss the company still has in excess of $280M in cash post second quarter.

Pro's:

With XJT's agreement with CAL, they have constant cash flow and are somewhat sheltered from price competition from uncertain demand.

XJT's fuel costs are lower under the agreement with CAL. Under this agreement, CAL caps the fuel at $.71 per gallon which shelters XJT from rising fuel costs.

Great labor relations.

Load factors were weak initially; around 40%. However, through July and August load factors have been 65%. Traditionally, even CAL has load factors in the 70% arena.

Cons:

XJT has a more difficult time working on new RFP's due to the "most favored nation" status built into their agreement with CAL. This prevents XJT from being price competitive with other carriers.

XJT depends on CAL for cash flow, fuel rates, and other operational considerations. Hence, in 2010 CAL can either unilaterally terminate their agreement with XJT with a 1 year notice or withdraw 25% of the existing CAL EMB fleet (about 50 aircraft).

CAL has publically voiced that XJT's CPA rates exceed "industry standards."


I am sure Captain_Bob and FlyChicaga will chime in.
 
I think you stated it well...

It is the first quarterly loss since ExpressJet was spun off from CAL... so it is funny that folks are thinking that we are going out of business. If that's how it works... then there's a LOT of airlines that shouldn't be around right now. ;) Like Chicaga said... I'm more concerned about a buyout than a closeout. ;)

The thing about CAL voicing our rates being "higher" than industry standards is true... they did voice that. But... they also found out (after signing CHQ) that our rates included MX, gate, and ramp personnel. Whereas, now they are having to pay extra, over and above, the rate CHQ quoted them for those services.

XJT has done a great job working around the "most favored nation" clause so far... but you are right... it is a hurdle. Ream has actually been quoted more than once that he'd prefer for CAL to just release us from the CPA and allow us to charge per seat similar to our 2nd DAL agreement. That would open up so many more opportunities for us and would eliminate the MFN issue.

Other than that... Pretty spot on.

Bob
 
Won't be Eagle. (you know....the regional that's been called "crappy" by members on this site).

That said: I hope none of the regionals fold.

I'd love to see better work rules in place for them, but to see them fold? No.

And none of you hope-to-be regional pilots should hope for that scenario either. Why? That puts a ton of experienced pilots on the street and who do you think gets hired first?

Just a thought.
 
FlyChicaga said:
I just hope if we are purchased, it is not by an airline like Mesa or Republic. That has nothing to do with the people who work there, but strictly the management.
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It wont be Mesa. Mesa is tied up financially with Shenzhen and Go!. They posted losses recently and are not in a position to spend a fair market value share price for XJT.

Republic could buy XJT. I personally cant see an advantage for them to other than to assume a 270 aircraft position for CAL.
 
I'm going to quietly agree with FlyChicaga and then back out of this thread. The writing is on the wall for that one. Just look at the history.
 
I said Mesa, and here's why: they're losing people faster than we are, and that's saying something. We're actually starting to retain people, and FOs aren't bailing for greener pastures on a daily basis like they were this time last year. Not the case at Mesa. It's no secret that UA isn't happy with them, and I don't know how they're gonna staff the -900s from Delta.

The other piece of the puzzle is their flying in Hawaii and China. Ornstein's been pretty blatant about wanting to run his own show. If it came down to it, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he folded the regional domestic stuff here or sold it off to concentrate on the flying at Go! and in China.
 
I doubt any regionals are going to fold.

You will see consolidation of Regional Carriers. Skywest/ASA, the old Chataqua and the old Shuttle America, and the Colgan buyout by Pinnacle.

Look for more regionals to combine down the road.
 
I really don't give a care. The sun was shining today, the hot-a$$ summer is almost over, and I woke up today.

Too many people spend too much time speculating on the negativity and not enough time looking at the positive.

Oh, and I'm making another gin & tonic. Err, umm, another "Jep".

:)
 
mtsu_av8er said:
Too many people spend too much time speculating on the negativity and not enough time looking at the positive.
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I think taking a hard look at potential deal, downfalls, financials, contracts, ect. is good and keeps people [pilots] up to date with whats going on in their backyard.
 
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