Everyone needs to relax and calm down. A few small airlines that were in trouble even before 106 dollar oil close and people start acting like aviation Armageddon.
What is interesting about this statement is that it assumes that we are all chicken-little running in circles fearing for the falling pieces of sky.
That is not the case. What this thread does show, however, is how our paradigms change over time. The circumstances of our lives dictate our "plan B".
Let me give you an example. The first time I was laid off I was a freight pilot. I was flying checks and Airborne Express feeder stuff in a Baron based in Tri-Cities, Tennessee. I had no family, barely any ties whatsoever. Everything I owned fit in the trunk of my car. So it was nothing for me to pack up my things, move in with Mom and Dad, and find a job -- any job -- flight instructing while working at a Grocery Store at night. Piece of cake.
The second time I was furloughed I was a DC9 copilot for AirTran. AirTran's starting pay was $25,000 per year and I hadn't worked there very long. I had a few hundred dollars in the bank but that was it. I still had no family to worry about and most everything I owed fit in the trunk of my car. I managed to get a job back at the commuter I had left before going to AirTran. So I took my few hundred dollars, drove back to Indiana, got my job back, and then parked my car in a secure parking garage near Pittsburgh, PA. (The parking garage, with employee discount, was much MUCH cheaper than any crashpad I could find at the time!) So I lived in the car when I didnt have overnights. Took showers at the YMCA, and saved quarters for the laundromat.
Had someone asked me THEN if I wanted to go work in Asia, the middle east, India...I would have jumped at the opportunity.
The third time I was laid off I was with US Airways. I now had a wife (no kids yet). I was making nearly $100,000 per year. I didn't own a house yet, but I had a dog and a rental house. Couldn't fit everything I owned in the car anymore. So what was plan "B"?
Well I had a dispatchers certificate so I tried to find a job dispatching. No such luck. I tried to find another job flying, but I was unwilling to sacrifice my lifestyle. When you have once made good money it makes it even harder to start over making commuter pay again. I toughed it out for a while on unemployment -- even took a commuter job that paid squat simply because I wouldn't have to commute! At least my wife was still working (she was a good plan "B") In time I gave up and got a job flying for a commuter with a domicile in town. At least I didnt have to move.
The last time I was furloughed (technically I quit before they ever got to me) I was better prepared. I had six months salary in the bank. It took me about 30 days to find another flying job -- albeit at another commuter flying an RJ for pennies. I figured it was best to remain current and flying for the commuters filled that requirement while still leaving me adequate time to keep job hunting. Anyhow I had plenty of cash in the bank for a few months, a wife that worked, a dog, and was now a homeowner. Clearly (at least for me) the opportunity to go work overseas was no longer a possibility. That is a single person's endeavor and I had to respect my wife's career ambitions. Hard to uproot a woman with her own aspirations simply to satisfy my own big airplane ego.
So that brings us to today. If I were to lose my job tomorrow, what would I do? Like many people here I frequently ask myself that question. I still have the dispatcher certificate, I keep all of my CFIs current although I haven't instructed since 1994. I have taken a variety of courses at my company to try and see if there were another field that interests me. I ordered free industry publications and networked with other pilots who, during the post 09-11 furlough went to work as retail managers for large companies such as Home Depot. (Do you know how much a manager at Home Depot can earn in a year?) I am well aware that my Aviation Management degree is virtually useless. But i'm also aware that as a pilot I have a high degree of motivation and the ability to be trained. I am clean cut, professional, and well spoken. So will I be able to command the same salary I do today in a non-aviation field? No. Most likely not.
But I will be able to put food on my table. And that, friends, is today's paradigm. I have a family, a son, a dog, and a home. The single most important thing in my life is making certain that they are provided for. So what will I do if this job goes away? Whatever it takes. Period.
If that means quitting flying then it's been fun but you have to do what you have to do. I know that I am no longer willing to work for yet ANOTHER commuter. I know that I am no longer willing to leave the country. I know that I am no longer willing to commute to reserve on the bottom of somebody's list.
Look at all of those things together and it says one thing. That if this job disappears i'm probably done in aviation. Sure i'll try and do a little flight instructing here and there, but I sincerely doubt i'll bother trying to build a career doing this kind of work anymore. (Well... maybe i'd try to get an interview as an instructor for FSI... but beyond that I think i've tried all the tricks to make this profession work for me.)
So forgive me if when 777forever tells me to relax and calm down I have to chuckle a bit. I'm plenty calm and very relaxed. I've been through this before time and time and time again. Each time my plan B has changed as my life circumstances have. But one thing is certain and that is that ALL of us need a plan B -- because there is no such thing as an aviation CAREER... just your next aviation JOB.