United Airlines Top Pilot Has A Lot To Say About Perceived Pilot Shortage

JetDoc

Pit Bull Wrangler
He should do a little research on CPA's and the Fee for Departure model before making himself look stupid with statements like, from the article, "Rather Insler argues it's the regional carriers' unwillingness to adequately compensate pilots for their work and their specialized training that is creating the shortage because qualified pilots are unwilling to sign up to work in such situations." He obviously has no idea where "regionals" get their pot of money from.

https://www.bizjournals.com/chicago/news/2017/08/14/united-airlines-perceived-pilot-shortage.html
 
This is why the best paying regionals right now are wholly owned- the mainline partner is often funding the bonuses at the regional.

Personally, I am skeptical that there will ever be a true pilot shortage. As many point out, right now there isn't so much a pilot shortage as a pay shortage. But neither is likely to be an issue much longer. We are living in very unique times right now- the economy seems to be at a crest, and oil is abnormally cheap.

But when either of those things change the airline industry will take a huge hit and will not need so many pilots. The pilot shortage will give way to a massive pilot surplus. And it's been 8 years since the last recession, so we are just about due for another one.
 
And it's been 8 years since the last recession, so we are just about due for another one.

I don't know man we're still barely out of the last recession. Plus tax reform hasn't even passed yet. That should be a huge boon to the economy.
 
I don't know man we're still barely out of the last recession. Plus tax reform hasn't even passed yet. That should be a huge boon to the economy.

Well I certainly hope you are right. But under the official definition of a recession, the last recession ended around September 2009. It is certainly possible that tax reform could be a boon for the economy, at least for a while, but recessions have occurred roughly every 7-10 years throughout modern history, under various governments and tax policies. There really doesn't seem to be any reason recessions will suddenly stop occurring.

And yes, I know it feels like the 2008 recession hust ended, st least for many people. Unemployment rayes took longer to drop, and many people have yet to see their incomes return to prerecession levels and have been "left behind" in the recovery. I believe this is partly due to globalization and the outsourcing/ offshoring of jobs, and partly due to jobs being automated out of existence.

Speaking of which, studies show 47% of today's jobs are at risk of disappearing thanks to automation in the next 25 years. Recessions tend to accelerate economic trends that are already happening. So I predict that each recession from now on, more and more people will be left behind in the recovery as widespread structural unemployment rears it's ugly head. I'm not sure how soon pilots will be replaced with technology but certainly the demand for air travel, which is ultimately a luxury, will be greatly reduced once all this happens.
 
I predict a market downturn here in the next 3 years. Could be 1 year, could be 5, but record gains are not sustainable forever. Please all you pilots SAVE NOW while you are making money. Avoid putting everything in the stock market - especially because it is making record profits. Current conditions are starting to look eerily familiar. Once it reaches hysteria, then you'll know a crash is coming.

Hopefully the future is not as gloomy as @Yakob predicts but I have to agree with him. Except, I don't believe that air travel will see much of a slowdown, its too much like the city bus now.

As for technology replacing pilots, um not anytime soon. Would you ride in one?
 
This is why the best paying regionals right now are wholly owned- the mainline partner is often funding the bonuses at the regional.

Personally, I am skeptical that there will ever be a true pilot shortage. As many point out, right now there isn't so much a pilot shortage as a pay shortage. But neither is likely to be an issue much longer. We are living in very unique times right now- the economy seems to be at a crest, and oil is abnormally cheap.

But when either of those things change the airline industry will take a huge hit and will not need so many pilots. The pilot shortage will give way to a massive pilot surplus. And it's been 8 years since the last recession, so we are just about due for another one.

There is a pilot shortage. The regionals are not paying bonuses to be nice. When the majors start truly hiring in earnest, it's going to get very interesting.
 
From Wikipedia
In its narrowest definition, a labour shortage is an economic condition in which employers believe there are insufficient qualified candidates (employees) to fill the market-place demands for employment at a mostly employer determined wage. Such a condition is sometimes referred to by Economists as "an insufficiency in the labour force."
I thought a definition would keep everyone on the same page. At the moment I don't believe there is an insufficiency of qualified pilots, look at Skywest or other regionals with big bonuses and a Flow, they are still managing to fill classes. In a few years we will see if the training infrastructure can keep up.
 
He should do a little research on CPA's and the Fee for Departure model before making himself look stupid with statements like, from the article

Don't see anything there I would disagree with. The regionals, even the wholly owned ones - are capable of negotiating contracts that are sufficient to cover payroll to staff their operations. That's, um, how running a business works. At the moment, I'm sure most of them are baking into the cake that they will be paying more for pilots going forward. Of course, they don't want to - which is why their PR teams work to place "pilot shortage" pieces in the media.
 
Don't see anything there I would disagree with. The regionals, even the wholly owned ones - are capable of negotiating contracts that are sufficient to cover payroll to staff their operations. That's, um, how running a business works. At the moment, I'm sure most of them are baking into the cake that they will be paying more for pilots going forward. Of course, they don't want to - which is why their PR teams work to place "pilot shortage" pieces in the media.

I have a reason to believe that the piece that pilot wrote doesn't exist by itself in a vacuum, but is rather a part of a PR campaign to set the ground for negotiations. Between, perhaps, the ALPA, and, who knows, maybe United. Hence there isnt much to discuss.
The legacies have a very interesting way of matching and raising each other's bets. One legacy owns a regional - why not go farther. The regional airline industry is changing and I believe will be very different in the upcoming years, but it's the trial and error that will establish the final look.

That aside, I wrote a paper On a very successful (for it's day) charter company in Ukraine. They would run 737 to vacation destinations seasonally, and the return trip fare was $60-80 per seat vs $200-250 the competition charged.
The way they made it work was to sell blocks of seats to tour operators (anyone remembers those?), foregoing the bigger margin per seat, but also eliminating the risks and associated marketing expenses in the days when 60% loads were the goal. The kicker is, they were successful for only as long as they were the only ones doing it and were competing with "normal" airlines.

In a way that's what the regionals are doing right now. Problem is, as mentioned above, while that's a reasonably safe way to stay in business, it doesn't promote any kind of healthy competition since the only way to compete is by being cheaper than the next guy so that the shareholders of the partner major stay happy.
That's unhealthy on grand many levels.
The customer is stripped of choice. Buying a ticket to the boonies and wanting to stay on United (AA/Delta) for miles, he's basically fed that regional, the equipment and service that comes with it.
Normal codeshare would be a much healthier way - have the airplane with the actual company's name painted on it, ability to sell Delta/United/Turkish ticket to the destination and vice versa - the fact that without trying the airline can go tango uniform tomorrow, and not in the five years when the cpa renewal is due, would make the air travel better. Same principle as "we are too big to fail" being unhealthy for the legacies. Yeah you can. Run late hard and long enough, treat pax like crap and outsource the customer service to India and see what happens.

Whatevs though, what do I know, I'm just a bizjet right seat driver.
 
As for technology replacing pilots, um not anytime soon. Would you ride in one?

Probably not, but it doesn't really matter what we think as long as the general public doesn't mind pilotless airliners. I don't know that they'd be accepted now, but self-driving cars and trucks are said to be just around the corner, and if they become commonplace public opinion will probably accept pilotless airliners sooner or later.

I second the advice to SAVE while you can. Even barring a recession the aviation industry tends to be unstable and volatile. 16 years ago I doubt many airline employees realized they would be out of a job by the end of the year.

There is a pilot shortage. The regionals are not paying bonuses to be nice. When the majors start truly hiring in earnest, it's going to get very interesting.

Sure, but I'd argue the shortage is a temporary situation. We are enjoying a very peculiar confluence of a strong economy, low oil prices, and relatively little competition from flag of convenience carriers right now. The first two won't last forever and the last of those 3 is already ending- NAI is probably just the beginning of the flag of convenience onslaught. So expecting the pilot shortage to last long is a bit like expecting it to never be winter again because it's summer now.

The majors are already hiring at the greatest rate in decades- do you really see hiring increasing even more?
 
Sure, but I'd argue the shortage is a temporary situation. We are enjoying a very peculiar confluence of a strong economy, low oil prices, and relatively little competition from flag of convenience carriers right now. The first two won't last forever and the last of those 3 is already ending- NAI is probably just the beginning of the flag of convenience onslaught. So expecting the pilot shortage to last long is a bit like expecting it to never be winter again because it's summer now.

The majors are already hiring at the greatest rate in decades- do you really see hiring increasing even more?

You're right that any number of factors could dampen the impact, but the fact remains that there are thousands of pilots who will retire over the next 10 years, and there are not thousands of pilot entering the industry. At least not domestic ones. Many of the new commercial certs issues these days are for Asian and European nationals who will return to their own countries to fly.

As far as things increasing, I believe the retirements don't get going in true earnest industry-wide until 2020. The chart below is a few years old (it still has US Airways listed), but it's probably close enough. Assuming the numbers are still correct, 2023 will be the peak of retirements. As long as there isn't nuclear war or a massive recession, the airlines will be forced to hire in large numbers just to keep their current fleets aloft. The next year that will mirror the number of retirements in 2017 is 2029. Think about that for a second. That's 12 years of greater than 2017's retirements.

I'm just saying that we are in a pretty good place as pilots. This will impact everyone, not just the regionals. We are a commodity, and to stay in business, major airlines will be forced to attract and retain pilots. At least until our robot overlords make us obsolete!

upload_2017-8-17_10-24-42.png
 
You're right that any number of factors could dampen the impact, but the fact remains that there are thousands of pilots who will retire over the next 10 years, and there are not thousands of pilot entering the industry. At least not domestic ones. Many of the new commercial certs issues these days are for Asian and European nationals who will return to their own countries to fly.

As far as things increasing, I believe the retirements don't get going in true earnest industry-wide until 2020. The chart below is a few years old (it still has US Airways listed), but it's probably close enough. Assuming the numbers are still correct, 2023 will be the peak of retirements. As long as there isn't nuclear war or a massive recession, the airlines will be forced to hire in large numbers just to keep their current fleets aloft. The next year that will mirror the number of retirements in 2017 is 2029. Think about that for a second. That's 12 years of greater than 2017's retirements.

I'm just saying that we are in a pretty good place as pilots. This will impact everyone, not just the regionals. We are a commodity, and to stay in business, major airlines will be forced to attract and retain pilots. At least until our robot overlords make us obsolete!

View attachment 39837
FWIW, that graph is pretty out dated as well. More retirements than when that was made about 5 years ago.

American alone has a steady 850-950/yr from 2021-2026. Delta is in the 750-800/yr range during that time frame, steadily.
 
o_O
.. doesn't seem to be any reason recessions will suddenly stop occurring.....the economy seems to be at a crest, and oil is abnormally cheap.
aab892b2de11563573b6f381c81c4ce6--lillian-gish-dorothy-gish.jpg
I'd suggest the political stagnation and leadership uncertainty in the world's largest economy will define our collective future.
 
I don't know man we're still barely out of the last recession. Plus tax reform hasn't even passed yet. That should be a huge boon to the economy.
What are you on, is it prohibited by CFR and if not, may I have some?
 
Just thought I'd share this gem I stumbled across.
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-...intensify-efforts-combat-pilot-supply-dilemma

Mesa's CEO:
“No one can argue that by reducing service you are pushing people into their cars, and they are killed 100 times as often. You have a moral obligation to repeal this law, because it is injuring people.”

Mesa has established pilot-recruiting offices in other countries. The offices recruit first officers from South America and Australia whose citizens can fulfill official requirements for U.S. working visas relatively easily—and the Middle East, where pilots may qualify for refugee status in the U.S. Recently Mesa has had success in recruiting pilots from all three areas

I'm not sure how morally acceptable it is to recruit pilots to your bottom feeder by way of refugee status.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Just thought I'd share this gem I stumbled across.
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-...intensify-efforts-combat-pilot-supply-dilemma

Mesa's CEO:
“No one can argue that by reducing service you are pushing people into their cars, and they are killed 100 times as often. You have a moral obligation to repeal this law, because it is injuring people.”

Mesa has established pilot-recruiting offices in other countries. The offices recruit first officers from South America and Australia whose citizens can fulfill official requirements for U.S. working visas relatively easily—and the Middle East, where pilots may qualify for refugee status in the U.S. Recently Mesa has had success in recruiting pilots from all three areas

I'm not sure how morally acceptable it is to recruit pilots to your bottom feeder by way of refugee status.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

Probably about as moral as hiring illegal immigrants to circumvent U.S. labor laws and get away with paying grossly substandard wages, which companies have been doing for ages.

This shows why there is so much hype about a pilot shortage- so Mesa and their ilk can get work visas to hire foreign pilots. We are lucky most other countries lack the flight training capacity we have her in the USA, or they probably would have used the H1B visas to depress pilot compensation years ago.

Interesting to see their argument that reduced service kills by "pushing" people to drive. I believe that's the FAA's rationale for allowing lap children, that parents would elect to drive otherwise, which is statistically more dangerous.
 
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