I get than tankering fuel costs money. But running on the thin side to where "carry what you need" is about all you have, with reserves of course, would seem to cost far more in having to turn around.....fuel-wise in returning and launching again, maintenance-wise, passengers-wise.....than tankering a bit more of a hedge would ultimately cost. Little bit of an insurance policy with an extra amount of fuel, not necessarily saying to top the tanks.
I have no idea how United runs the plans, but, when most plans are run they are pretty dependent on profile. If a crew is planned at 250/280/.73 in the climb, they can burn a good bit of fuel if the ad hoc it and go 250/330/.2AOA etc. in Non AT airplanes, a lot of crews burn extra gas bracketing the profile speeds while climbing in VS or something like that (737-9 has AT, I am aware)
I've known a bunch of pilots that don't pay as much attention to east bound fuel. Not sure if they just expect the winds or rotation of the earth to help them but w/e.
I also know a lot of dispatchers run all of their flight plans as soon as they get to their desk, which means an end of shift flight can be a long ways off forecast. Unfortunately when the WX packet gets sent to the pilots, it usually has winds from when the dispatcher pulled it.
Most pilots also don't realize that pirep winds actually get imputed into some variations of weather models, and can update the aloft winds... ( helping out other crews). Full access mode S would give real time info to ATC and NOAA - which would really help get fuel planning cut down based off real world data... But who wants to save gas right?
Turning around blows a whole lot of fuel savings right out of the water. Especially given the flight time here 2 out 2 back? (If the news is correct) is not an insignificant amount of fuel wasted. (Plus all the people expenses after)
Good on the crew for making the hard call to turn back. The forward temptation is hard to fight.
I've had a few winter flights where the FMS "check destination fuel" message has been up for the first 3+ hours. Next to the unable cruise alt. Message, it's annoying as hell. FMS predicted numbers can be pretty crappy sometimes. We only get to put 1 wind value in, so, it's not accurate. Not sure what the 737 gets.