Time to short the Dow?

[gotWXdagain]

I'm still almost entirely in cash. S&P 500 just dropped below the 200 day moving average. I'm not buying anytime soon, still too much downside risk and no signs of capitulation.

Are you expecting to use this money soon?

I’ve been holding most of my 401(k) in treasuries for awhile now.

Are you retiring in a couple years?

Nah just riding out the volatility, however long it lasts. When I’m looking to my retirement I’m not necessarily looking for that money to be a cash cow, I just want it to be there.

 

[Cessnaflyer]

To buy stocks, when they aren't so expensive relative to earnings. When the Schiller PE drops closer to 20 or so, I'll be buying.

Should be close by the end of the week

Doesn’t matter. A deranged madman is in charge of the Executive Branch. Cash is the way to go.

The cash that I devote to the market isn't going to make anything sitting in the bank at 1.25% so I might as well buy some of my targets that are cheaper.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

The cash that I devote to the market isn't going to make anything sitting in the bank at 1.25% so I might as well buy some of my targets that are cheaper.

Earning 0.25% at the bank is better than losing 40%. Again, deranged madman.

 

[ppragman]

Well - I used to say that "the president can't do much to affect the economy - it's mostly in the hands of the policies of congress, large business leaders, and irrational and unpredictable market forces. About the only thing the president can do is appoint the fed chairman."

This tariff thing certainly proves me wrong - I never (ever) assumed we'd have a president who'd start a trade war... I wonder how this is going to play out in the economy over the next year.

 

[drunkenbeagle]

Earning 0.25% at the bank is better than losing 40%. Again, deranged madman.

I bet he is shorting AMZN. But I do think a 30% decline in stocks this year is about a 50/50 outcome, looking at history.

 

[gotWXdagain]

The cash that I devote to the market isn't going to make anything sitting in the bank at 1.25% so I might as well buy some of my targets that are cheaper.

Earning 0.25% at the bank is better than losing 40%. Again, deranged madman.

You know it’s funny, the difference between establishment “big banks” and newer electronic banks is pretty striking. My Wells “savings” account pays at .01% and my Synchrony pays at 1.05%. I pretty much use my Wells account as an escrow anymore to even out my paychecks (my 14 on 14 off schedule lines up so that one pay period has ten work days, the other has four). I feel like that’s not a good business model for Wells.

 

[NickH]

I don't have one green on my holdings so far today. Need to get those prices in check.

I have one positive today... IMAX. But such a small position it's not really a plus.

 

[Cessnaflyer]

Earning 0.25% at the bank is better than losing 40%. Again, deranged madman.

I keep two years of cash in savings for all my expenses averaged for the last two years, add to real estate down payment fund with which I haven't bought any real estate for three years. Income is just barely under the Roth limit so I max those and a 401k. I don't really have anywhere else to put my money right now. I am not looking currently for a principal gain.

I agree with you it's not the best of times to be buying but I don't need to be stockpiling more idle cash.

 

[drunkenbeagle]

I feel like that’s not a good business model for Wells.

Sounds like a great for Wells. They earn at least 1% on your money, and then keep +99% of it. I really like Fidelity's cash management accounts, and their money market funds they sweep into pay about that.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

I keep two years of cash in savings for all my expenses averaged for the last two years, add to real estate down payment fund with which I haven't bought any real estate for three years. Income is just barely under the Roth limit so I max those and a 401k. I don't really have anywhere else to put my money right now. I am not looking currently for a principal gain.

I agree with you it's not the best of times to be buying but I don't need to be stockpiling more idle cash.

Buffett has kept billions upon billions of dollars of Berkshire's funds in cash at times. When the timing is bad, you can't have too much in cash. I reiterate, deranged madman.

 

[Cessnaflyer]

Sounds like a great for Wells. They earn at least 1% on your money, and then keep +99% of it. I really like Fidelity's cash management accounts, and their money market funds they sweep into pay about that.

You've got to have an Ally. https://www.ally.com/bank/online-savings-account/

 

[Cessnaflyer]

Buffett has kept billions upon billions of dollars of Berkshire's funds in cash at times. When the timing is bad, you can't have too much in cash. I reiterate, deranged madman.

In percentages, we are about the same.

 

[drunkenbeagle]

You've got to have an Ally. https://www.ally.com/bank/online-savings-account/

Meh. With the typical amounts I have in cash, it would net me something like $5/year. Plus, no transaction limit with Fidelity.

 

[gotWXdagain]

I feel like that’s not a good business model for Wells.

Sounds like a great for Wells. They earn at least 1% on your money, and then keep +99% of it. I really like Fidelity's cash management accounts, and their money market funds they sweep into pay about that.

Until people bail on it. How’s that going for them?

 

[drunkenbeagle]

Until people bail on it. How’s that going for them?

Bail to where? When big retail banks lose customers to another branch down the street, they just buy the competing bank. Not much really changes.

 

[gotWXdagain]

Until people bail on it. How’s that going for them?

Bail to where? When big retail banks lose customers to another branch down the street, they just buy the competing bank. Not much really changes.

Fair point.

 

[NickH]

I have one positive today... IMAX. But such a small position it's not really a plus.

Hindsight is such a wonderful thing....

 

[Louie1975]

I’m curious what people think/thought about Janet Yellen’s comment last year. Seems a lot of people think a Bear Market is coming. However, she said she doesn’t see a financial crisis ‘in our lifetime.’

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/27/yel...ancial-crisis-not-likely-in-our-lifetime.html

 

[NickH]

I’m curious what people think/thought about Janet Yellen’s comment last year. Seems a lot of people think a Bear Market is coming. However, she said she doesn’t see a financial crisis ‘in our lifetime.’

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/27/yel...ancial-crisis-not-likely-in-our-lifetime.html

Mixed. There are many lessons learned, and a financial crisis of the same cause is unlikely. That doesn't mean that the economy will continue with it's current boom.

 

[Cessnaflyer]

I’m curious what people think/thought about Janet Yellen’s comment last year. Seems a lot of people think a Bear Market is coming. However, she said she doesn’t see a financial crisis ‘in our lifetime.’

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/27/yel...ancial-crisis-not-likely-in-our-lifetime.html

I think it was kind of ballsy to make a statement that we will never see such a crisis in our lifetimes.

Take a listen to the people that were in power at the time, Timothy Geithner, Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson. They will give you sense that if the dominoes fell any differently we would be in an even bigger world of hurt.

https://features.marketplace.org/bernanke-paulson-geithner/

Another great interview with Kai Rysdall.