Time to short the Dow?

[Cessnaflyer]

I've been keeping my mouth shut (mostly), but I'm also a big fan of the Shiller P/E. Stocks are up 30% since the election. That means the market is pricing for earnings to justify that in the future. I still don't buy that happening. I've been 95% in cash for the last 6 weeks. We tested the low on the last correction and went below it today - enough for the quants to say Bye, Felica. I think the smart money used the last month as a chance to sell.

My crystal ball shows risk from trade wars and tariffs, rising interest rates, sketchy political leadership, and expensive everything relative to historical prices. I don't see much to justify great earnings numbers either.

That said, the hard part about being on the sidelines is knowing when to buy. All I know right now is that it is not Monday.

Not calling you out, just selecting your post because it had a wide range of issues we are all wondering about.

It's interesting going back 5 months and now seeing what has happened.

Shiller P/E is now at 33.47 and climbing.
S&P 500 was at 2588.26 now sitting at 2912.72
Trade War is ongoing with China, talks with Canada and Mexico continue

Will this mean an even larger drop when the inevitable happens?

 

[NickH]

Dow on Nov 30: 24272
Dow Today: 26124
Gain: 7.6%
Time to short the Dow: No.
Hindsight: 20/20.

NickH Portfolio YTD Gain: 12.4%
Excellence: He pisses.

 

[Low&Slow]

Looks like a recession might be on the horizon?
US Yield Curve Just Inverted
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[Cessnaflyer]

Looks like a recession might be on the horizon?
US Yield Curve Just Inverted
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

It's one indicator.

Also, Wall Street and Main Street are not the same things.

 

[AAPalmTree]

You’re either a lot smarter than me or a fool to play the ups and downs.

 

[AAPalmTree]

@Cessnaflyer hit it on the nose.

What if You Only Invested at Market Peaks?

 

[NickH]

Time to short the Dow: 3/12/2018.
Time to buy the Dow?

 

[Cessnaflyer]

@Cessnaflyer hit it on the nose.

What if You Only Invested at Market Peaks?

A great article and one of the ones that have kept me buying a little more with every income period.

It's interesting going back 5 months and now seeing what has happened.

Shiller P/E is now at 33.47 and climbing.
S&P 500 was at 2588.26 now sitting at 2912.72
Trade War is ongoing with China, talks with Canada and Mexico continue

Will this mean an even larger drop when the inevitable happens?

Since late August another update:

Shiller P/E 29.61 at close today Dec. 10th
S&P 500 2637.72
Trade War still ongoing with China. Mexico and Canada seem fine still. It will be interesting to see what the detention of Meng Wanzhou In B.C. has on the whole thing.

 

[NovemberEcho]

Having not touched my TSP other than biweekly contributions, 50% C fund, 30 S fund, 20% I find, 12 month PIP as of Dec 1 a whopping .96%. Woo Trump economy!

 

[Prino]

Having not touched my TSP other than biweekly contributions, 50% C fund, 30 S fund, 20% I find, 12 month PIP as of Dec 1 a whopping .96%. Woo Trump economy!

I was at like 15% pip till December. Needless to say I got crushed