B767Driver
New Member
DL has an 11% contribution....I hope to see it up to around 15% in future contracts. 10% rate of return is a good planning number. I personally plan 7 to 8% rate of return in my portfolios. You can get 5% in a CD alone.
The New Airline Pilot Retirement
- Thread starter B767Driver
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DL has an 11% contribution....I hope to see it up to around 15% in future contracts. 10% rate of return is a good planning number. I personally plan 7 to 8% rate of return in my portfolios. You can get 5% in a CD alone.
B767Driver
New Member
Take a look at the Morningstar data and analyst reports. The lifetime return of many, many funds are around 10%. A lot in the 12% to 15% range. Also alot in the 7% to 8% range as well.
Conservative planning would be 7-8%.
But 10% is not outrageous.
B767Driver
New Member
killbilly
Vocals, Lyrics, Triangle, Washboard, Kittens
I agree.
As with anything in investing, it depends on how risk-averse you are. If the majority of your holdings are in things like CDs, bonds, treasuries, yeah, your returns are going to be low, but stable.
Wheels:
The guy I'm using now has been my Dad's investment guy for well over 20 years - nearly 30 if I recall correctly, and my father has done well with him, starting from scratch two or three times in the last three decades. I'll find out what his annuals are over 20 years and PM you. I'm curious about that myself.
It's scary, though. The day the market took a dump (a month ago?) was the day AFTER he opened my account, but he spread the purchases out over a couple of weeks. It absolutely SUCKS to look at the account on days the market is down and see how much you've "lost" but as long as you have more wins than losses you're doing good. I just ignore it now.
wheelsup
Well-Known Member
I haven't found any source that goes beyond 10 years of data. Again, I'm talking "long term", even 10 years for me isn't long term.
B767Driver
New Member
From 1926 to 2005 the US Equity markets average rate of return was 13.4%...adjusted for inflation almost 11%. The S&P 500 from 1971 to present is 11.5%.
You don't see a lot of research past the 10 year mark unless you really go dig for it. I suppose most people don't feel anything over 10 years is relevent when looking to make a decision "today" on what type of performer the product is.
wheelsup
Well-Known Member
Why start at 1926? Why 1971? A lot has happened in the past 10 years - look at oil, gold, real estate, etc. Do you think those returns will continue? I don't, but there are certainly a lot of people buying into those returns
.A question - what exactly is the "US Equity Market Average"? Because the data I found had the DJIA prices every day since 1900, and it equaled out to ~5.2%. Since 1900 the S&P 500 had an annual return of 5.02%.
Certainly there are people out there that can beat the market - they have proven that with their track records. I just don't think the majority of money managers can do it, and their track records also speak for themselves. I was thinking of going strictly with index funds from now on though, so if those annual returns that you posted hold up, that is certainly good enough for 40 years of retirement savings to compound on. Here's to hoping!!
B767Driver
New Member
Why start at 1926? Why 1971? A lot has happened in the past 10 years - look at oil, gold, real estate, etc. Do you think those returns will continue? I don't, but there are certainly a lot of people buying into those returns
A question - what exactly is the "US Equity Market Average"? Because the data I found had the DJIA prices every day since 1900, and it equaled out to ~5.2%. Since 1900 the S&P 500 had an annual return of 5.02%.
Certainly there are people out there that can beat the market - they have proven that with their track records. I just don't think the majority of money managers can do it, and their track records also speak for themselves. I was thinking of going strictly with index funds from now on though, so if those annual returns that you posted hold up, that is certainly good enough for 40 years of retirement savings to compound on. Here's to hoping!!
The US Equity Market Average is broader than any other benchmark...it's a total of all equity holdings. It's not even published outside of someone doing broad research into financial markets. If you take the data back to 150 years, it returns 10%. Many reports include 1926 because it incorporates the 1929 stock market crash, and 1970 because it incorporates the energy crisis. Those years incorporate those major financial events.
I'm not a financial professional...and don't intend to give financial advice. I think you are doing the most conservative planning with a 5% figure. However, most reputable financial planners figure a long term rate of 10% and that's what I used for the original figures. That's why I listed it in the assumptions. Change the assumptions to fit your preference.
A large part of my portfolio is index funds. I, like you, know that many professional managers cannot beat the index by the 3 or 4 percent in fees and commissions taken. However, over the past 5 years...my index funds have been my worst performers.
There was a documentary on PBS several months ago, about retirement, and many of the problems people will face in the future, because companies, abroad, not just airlines, are lessening their help in funding employee's retirements. Basically, it is up to us to save, and save wisely. When you really look at the big picture, very, very few people will be able to look back and say they averaged $100K, or near that, in their working life, regardless of their career. Less than 10% of people make that kind of money, which furthers the problem. This is why, in many cases, you see people working beyond retirement.
PositionAndHold
Well-Known Member
Been thinking of a lot of things lately Jtrain. Thanks for the offer and you'll be my first call if I decide to.
I actually work in the HR Consulting industry, and this is very true. We do actuarial consulting for retirement, pension, health, executive comp and benefits, and communications consulting for Fortune 500 companies. Defined benefit pensions are quickly becoming a thing in the past. The reason being is because of the way accounting rules have changed over the years. Companies with pensions and retiree healthcare have to book the present value of those future liabilities, and they have to keep a funding mechanism in place for the pensions. They just can't afford it, and if they were to keep a lot of this in place, a ton of companies would ultimately go under because of healthcare and pension liabilities alone. So, basically, you can take your pick....learn to start saving for yourself and be responsible, or be without a job when your company goes bankrupt from the liabilities it has to book. More and more companies will continue to freeze their current pension and retiree healthcare plans
People are use to the old "employer" system of retirement, healthcare, and retirement healthcare, but it will be a thing in the past very quickly. Over the years, a sort of "well, it is my right to have these things from my employer" attitude has developed and now people are in shock because that attitude has to change and they have to start learning how to save for themselves if they want a decent retirement.
I'd advise anyone and everyone to pile as much as possible into their Roth and their 401K. Also, get yourself an HSA (Health Savings Account) and save for that gap in healthcare from when you retire (if before 65) to when you are Medicare eligible at age 65. During that gap in between, medical expenses will wipe out any and all savings you might have for "retirement".
Don't mean to sound like a know-it-all, but thought you might like to have an insider's perspective and reasoning for changes that have occurred and will continue to occur. I work with my clients day in and day out on these issues.
People who continue to b*tch about their employer owes them this, and their employer owes them that, will be in for a rude awakening if they aren't prepared.
B767Driver
New Member
Keeping them a secret? At least PM them. I listened to a lounge briefing last week...and if 1/2 of that stuff comes true...we'd be living large.
Sure! They're just schoolhouse rumors so...
1. 60 Embraer 190/195's this summer -- some from an airline with a large JFK presence along with their terminal (THAT's a funny one, "KDMD, but make JB our D too? aroo?!"). The 737-700's are coming too.
2. 200 787's via GE leasing
3. 2 additional 777's in June (apparently, they're already done and collecting dust at BFI)
4. Taking a crapload of Aeroflot's Boeing slots which the Russkies want to dump to buy the Airbus. Undisclosed aircraft types.
5. Single combining the 767ER and 767-400 categories starting with LAX
6. Small big next month, mother of all bids (ha!) in July/August
7. Flat panel LCD conversions (a la Airborne Express) on the 757/767 fleet to match the -400 and 777. Apparently only costs $200G's a copy an can be retrofitted in two days.
8. The "Michael Boyd Stuff (tm)" about LCC's versus "legacies" is starting to come to fruition.
B767Driver
New Member
Sounds good to me. I also heard CVG MD88 is going away in the fall.
Seggy
Well-Known Member
Then FO4EVER will be ATLCA4EVER and will be able to buy his wife a nice new piece of jewelry with the pay increase!
Apparently, that's the first -700 base according to the ground guys.
the 76 is sweet except for when your HDG breaks and you're down to battery power over the Atlantic! DOH!
CoffeeIcePapers
Well-Hung Member
Sounds like supply and demand.