The infamous "pilot shortage" again...

[derg]

I'm holding steadfast by a "shortage of pilots willing to do the job for the current compensation".

Delta had no problem finding fully qualified and experienced pilots to the tune of more than 10,000 applicants for 300 or so jobs.

What's different about regional staffing? A ha!

 

[JOEFRIDAY2]

I'm holding steadfast by a "shortage of pilots willing to do the job for the current compensation".

Delta had no problem finding fully qualified and experienced pilots to the tune of more than 10,000 applicants for 300 or so jobs.

What's different about regional staffing? A ha!

Doug there is absolutely no question that pure economics is a factor here. It takes somewhere around 100K, with living expenses, to obtain a 250 hour commercial multi instrument certificate.

The return on that 100K investment is a $22K a year (or less) job. The numbers simply do not work. Someone working at McDonalds will make more than what they are paying airline first officers to fly passengers around.

Frankly it's hard to leave the fry cook job at McDonalds, get your ratings and then take a pay cut to become an airline pilot. New pilots are not coming in to train and banks are not providing loans for such training any longer. They finally figured out that the 22K a year pay is not enough to live on let alone pay back a $700 a month student loan.

Something is wrong when you are standing around the crew room and the same bill collectors are calling from one pilot cell phone to another about past due student loans.

Joe

 

[ppragman]

Doug there is absolutely no question that pure economics is a factor here. It takes somewhere around 100K, with living expenses, to obtain a 250 hour commercial multi instrument certificate.

The return on that 100K investment is a $22K a year (or less) job. The numbers simply do not work. Someone working at McDonalds will make more than what they are paying airline first officers to fly passengers around.

Frankly it's hard to leave the fry cook job at McDonalds, get your ratings and then take a pay cut to become an airline pilot. New pilots are not coming in to train and banks are not providing loans for such training any longer. They finally figured out that the 22K a year pay is not enough to live on let alone pay back a $700 a month student loan.

Something is wrong when you are standing around the crew room and the same bill collectors are calling from one pilot cell phone to another about past due student loans.

Joe

Don't work for a regional. Problem solved...

 

[Boris Badenov]

Don't work for a regional. Problem solved...

And "negotiate" with a truncheon. Or at least a truncheon-mindset. They did it to us and it was "just business". Provided this (IMHO) hysterical "shortage" pans out, do it to them, and let the Devil take the hindmost.

Of course what will Really Happen <tm> is a lot money changing hands in Congress and "multi-crew" licenses and a new class of pseudo-pilot who's really an Indentured Servant Gear-Swinger. Mark the thread. I will.

 

[ppragman]

And "negotiate" with a truncheon. Or at least a truncheon-mindset. They did it to us and it was "just business". Provided this (IMHO) hysterical "shortage" pans out, do it to them, and let the Devil take the hindmost.

Of course what will Really Happen <tm> is a lot money changing hands in Congress and "multi-crew" licenses and a new class of pseudo-pilot who's really an Indentured Servant Gear-Swinger. Mark the thread. I will.

That's probably not all that inaccurate. You can bet your ass though that the MPL won't be all that common at the regional level, they could never afford to pay for that. In the mean time, guys that have more than wet ink certs, and that magical MTPIC time might maybe (just maybe) be able to pull off a more comfortable standard of living than is presently available for most people. Things are looking up. Remember, in a world where DOOOOOOM abounds. Optimism is your friend.

 

[Boris Badenov]

Optimism is your friend.

[yt]eHscHI_I3A8[/yt]

Er. Directed at Mr. Cohen and his "RAA", not you. But Optimism has never done anything good for me, not once.

 

[derg]

Doug there is absolutely no question that pure economics is a factor here. It takes somewhere around 100K, with living expenses, to obtain a 250 hour commercial multi instrument certificate.

The return on that 100K investment is a $22K a year (or less) job. The numbers simply do not work. Someone working at McDonalds will make more than what they are paying airline first officers to fly passengers around.

Frankly it's hard to leave the fry cook job at McDonalds, get your ratings and then take a pay cut to become an airline pilot. New pilots are not coming in to train and banks are not providing loans for such training any longer. They finally figured out that the 22K a year pay is not enough to live on let alone pay back a $700 a month student loan.

Something is wrong when you are standing around the crew room and the same bill collectors are calling from one pilot cell phone to another about past due student loans.

Joe

Don't get me wrong, but we continue to supply labor for those prices. Once that labor stops flowing, things will improve if we play our cards correctly.

If your regional paid $80K to start, the synthetic "shortage" will solve itself virtually overnight.

 

[gosleddog]

Re: Obviously I can't find the thread on this...(USA TODAY!@

I believe that if you really want to do something, you can do it, but the pragmatist in me realizes that that cannot be true for everyone...although I believe that at the end of life the greatest regret would be to regret what I didn't try.

ditto!

 

[Autothrust Blue]

Don't get me wrong, but we continue to supply labor for those prices. Once that labor stops flowing, things will improve if we play our cards correctly.

If your regional paid $80K to start, the synthetic "shortage" will solve itself virtually overnight.

The 1500-hour rule is advocated by some (no names) as a measure that will limit supply and improve pay, QOL and benefits. Dubious, at best—there are people applying to be FOs at Republic, for instance.

 

[dasleben]

The 1500-hour rule is advocated by some (no names) as a measure that will limit supply and improve pay, QOL and benefits. Dubious, at best—there are people applying to be FOs at Republic, for instance.

That's just the thing: We all work crappy jobs for crappy pay to gain experience. Everyone hates it and everyone shows righteous indignation whenever someone else does it, but...we all do it. We create the market conditions because we continue to take the pay that's offered. No amount of legislation is going to change that.

 

[mshunter]

Don't get me wrong, but we continue to supply labor for those prices. Once that labor stops flowing, things will improve if we play our cards correctly.

If your regional paid $80K to start, the synthetic "shortage" will solve itself virtually overnight.

Unfortunatly as a group, we won't. This is meant to be nothing more than an observation. There is still the core group of guys here who have a standard since I joined. But there is also a HUGE new influx of guys and gald who are way to excited to be working for the current status quo of the regionals. I like your site Doug, but there is a ton of new people arouns here who are all to happy to work for wages that I simply couldn't afford to live on. A career that could once support a family *starting out in* is a thing of the past. And I feel, there always will be.

Regional pilots will never make $80k a year. Heck, most top out near that. Managemnt will never take the pay cut to make that happen. And the contract they sign with the majors to do thier flying won't allow ticket prices to go up to support a pay scale like that either. They'd rather sink the ship, and walk away with their bonus.

 

[jtrain609]

I don't know about the rest of ya'lls companies, but we're short on pilots.

If I understand the problem correctly today, most regionals are understaffed.

Mainline pilots are about to start retiring, and that will cause regional staffing to get even more FUBAR'd, resulting in hiring at the regional level.

Then, as the retirements at mainline companies take hold, there will be one of two results:

1. Either the mainline companies hire to fill the gaps left by retirement, or,

2. Mainline companies shrink in order to maintain profitability.

I've been told time after time in my life that a company can't shrink itself into profitability. You're either expanding and taking market share, or you're preparing to be sold/liquidated.

If these companies want to continue to survive, and I'm sure their shareholders would like that, they will continue to fill the gaps left by retirements.

We're seeing this all right now where I work. Guys are heading out to the charter and cargo operators right now, and a few to some LCC's. This is how it starts, and soon we're going to be seeing people leaving for mainline companies as they start to hire.

There WILL be hiring, it's simply a question of how much. Position yourself properly in the segment of the industry you want to be in, network your ass off, and make sure you exceed the qualifications for the employers that you want to work for, and good things will happen.

 

[ppragman]

[yt]eHscHI_I3A8[/yt]

Er. Directed at Mr. Cohen and his "RAA", not you. But Optimism has never done anything good for me, not once.

My meager optimism is the only thing that keeps me going. That and I don't really have my identity wrapped up in this career field anymore. Whatever is going to happen will happen. Sounds very Calvinistic of me, but trying to plan anything out - especially right now - is crazy. That said, I like what I do, and I'm excited about the future, this might not be as big as what Cohen and the RAA has in mind, but my sight picture on this is "low expectations with cautious optimism." That's what keeps me being a good little member of the proletariat instead of following the example of our Greek counterparts. Things will get better - slowly but surely, or they won't. I'll deal with what happens "when they don't" when that times comes. For now, cautious optimism and low expectations. That and beer.

 

[Hacker15e]

there is a ton of new people arouns here who are all to happy to work for wages that I simply couldn't afford to live on. A career that could once support a family *starting out in* is a thing of the past.

Remember, the entire construct of the commuters/regionals is that they were supposed to be a brief stepping stone on a pilot's way to a "real career" at a major. The low pay was always intended just as something pilots would suffer through until they built their time.

Once things at the top of the pyramid started to get shaken up, that has had a ripple effect and made that low regional pay something more of a long-term problem.

 

[derg]

Position yourself properly in the segment of the industry you want to be in, network your ass off, and make sure you exceed the qualifications for the employers that you want to work for, and good things will happen.

This.

Those are universal truths for success in any profession.

 

[Lunchbox]

Remember, the entire construct of the commuters/regionals is that they were supposed to be a brief stepping stone on a pilot's way to a "real career" at a major. The low pay was always intended just as something pilots would suffer through until they built their time.

Once things at the top of the pyramid started to get shaken up, that has had a ripple effect and made that low regional pay something more of a long-term problem.

The second year pay is actually not that bad for a non-degree requiring job.

 

[dasleben]

The second year pay is actually not that bad for a non-degree requiring job.

What other jobs are you comparing it to? Remember, flying transport aircraft isn't your usual job shuffling paperwork at a desk!

 

[TallFlyer]

Every time she sees one of these articles my Mom calls me. Yup Mom, heard it before.

I think train has it spot on though.

 

[mshunter]

Remember, the entire construct of the commuters/regionals is that they were supposed to be a brief stepping stone on a pilot's way to a "real career" at a major. The low pay was always intended just as something pilots would suffer through until they built their time.

Once things at the top of the pyramid started to get shaken up, that has had a ripple effect and made that low regional pay something more of a long-term problem.

But they have turned into something different completely. I see your point, but some guys have come to the regionals, and accepted the quality of life as good. Be it, at the upper levels, it isn't so bad. But, there will be pleanty of guys not willing to take the pay cut to move on to the majors, become an FO again to work their way through the ranks all over, when some of the guys only have 10-15 years left in the industry.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

I've always scoffed at the "pilot shortage" claims in years past. But not this time. This is one is for real, folks. First, the retirement numbers are astronomical across the industry, beginning next December, and there isn't even a grass roots movement off the ground to increase the retirement age again. Even if they got one started today, it would be years before they could get anywhere with it. It took them 10+ years the last time, and they only got it because of an ICAO rule change. Second, there aren't any new pilots in training to be US airline pilots. Go to your local flight schools and see who is there training. It's all foreign pilots getting their ratings to go back to their home country where a job is waiting for them. They aren't going to fly here. And third, growth is coming soon. The economy will start to improve within the next two years, and the airlines will capitalize on it. In the airline business, if you're not growing, you're dying.

All three factors combined are creating a massive shortage. It's for real this time. Bank on it.

I'm holding steadfast by a "shortage of pilots willing to do the job for the current compensation".

But isn't that all that matters? If the shortage leads to huge pay raises and benefits improvements, then mission accomplished, right?

Regional pilots will never make $80k a year.

Really? I made that much at a crappy regional 5 years ago, and I wasn't even someone who worked that hard. I think you should check your facts. Most regionals top out over six figures, and you can make $70k-$90k as a mid-seniority captain, unless you're really, really lazy.