The Illusion of Experience

Autothrust Blue

Autothrust Blue

“If you jump on my shift, that’s just rude, man.”
http://threesheetsnw.com/lateentry/2013/10/07/mario-vittone-on-the-illusion-of-experience/

A good read for those who fly day in and day out. In particular,
If this has a familiar feeling to it, it’s because it’s just an extension of what most of us are pleased to call simply “experience.” We learn we can do things successfully by having done them; we expand the horizon of the possible by measuring what we have succeeded at and extending our ambitions out a bit further. This “crawl, walk, run” model is the basis for training programs of every sort, from day-sailing instruction to master’s endorsements. The thought that it can, itself, become a dangerously subversive pattern of thought is profoundly disturbing. “Experience is being fooled by someone who’s gotten away with the same mistake longer than you have,” said Vittone.
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Read this.
 
It really is scary some of the people I've met that do properly dangerous things based entirely on getting away with it previously. Not just in aviation either. I'm guilty of it myself.
 
Man I learned a big lesson on this a few months ago... I'll just say it dealt with thunderstorms and leave it at that. But suffice it to say I learned the lesson and now I'm more cautious for it. Just because you've done something 100 times doesn't mean that the 101st time won't be the one to get you.
 
chrisreedrules said:
Man I learned a big lesson on this a few months ago... I'll just say it dealt with thunderstorms and leave it at that. But suffice it to say I learned the lesson and now I'm more cautious for it. Just because you've done something 100 times doesn't mean that the 101st time won't be the one to get you.
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I will say that one of the more embarrassing things I used to do was at the survey job. I'd try to plan out my time in the air so that I was on a site that was over an airport. Fly to 35-40 minutes fuel remaining, pull it to idle, dive to the numbers, land, and and taxi in right at the 30 minute mark. Legal, some might even argue that 30 minutes is a long time and not necessarily unsafe, but there's plenty of "what ifs" that could have turned that into a terrible day. Frankly, I never thought much of it at the time. The thought of doing that now gives me the heebie jeebies. Live and learn right? Getting lucky is more like it. Makes me wonder what other stupid crap I do now though... :)
 
UAL747400 said:
It really is scary some of the people I've met that do properly dangerous things based entirely on getting away with it previously. Not just in aviation either. I'm guilty of it myself.
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This is precisely what Congress is doing right now with the Debt Ceiling issue. Everyone is relatively calm because... "we've been here before"..
 
Mine wasn't anything like that... It was more a combination of several factors that all lead to a decision needing to be made to continue on around/near some storms or to turn around and put down. Well, I'm sure you can guess what the result of that was. I'll just say that thunderstorms in FL, while nasty, don't have much on thunderstorms in the mountains from my new found experience.
 
chrisreedrules said:
Mine wasn't anything like that... It was more a combination of several factors that all lead to a decision needing to be made to continue on around/near some storms or to turn around and put down. Well, I'm sure you can guess what the result of that was. I'll just say that thunderstorms in FL, while nasty, don't have much on thunderstorms in the mountains from my new found experience.
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I would say anything in the interior of the country in general is nastier regarding TS. LOTS of energy. I remember the hurricane hunters doing a presentation at UND, talking about a time they tried to go through a storm in ND and had to turn around immediately. Genuinely fearing for the integrity of the airframe and their lives.
 
Sounds about right... The inside of our airplane looked like someone had taken us and shook us violently. The airplane wasn't controllable for about 10 seconds (which was basically 3 lifetimes in my minds eye and a whole lotta grey hairs on my chin).
 
I'd rather fly with the 1,000hr pilot who has been scared flying than the 5,000hr pilot who has never known that fear.

Fear keeps you alive!

And it appears we've all had to change our pants a time or two thanks to weather :) Low level windshear probability....noooope, next stop!
 
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NewYorkophile said:
I'd rather fly with the 1,000hr pilot who has been scared flying than the 5,000hr pilot who has never known that fear.

Fear keeps you alive!

And it appears we've all had to change our pants a time or two thanks to weather :) Low level windshear probability....noooope, next stop!
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I definitely had/might still have areas that were/are required to be set straight with the ruining of pants. :smoke:
 
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At the end of the day, you’ll have to make a decision, and it may be right or wrong. But it is likely to be better if it is informed by not just experience, but a diversity of experience.
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I think this is the best takeaway from that article. It's why I'm not the biggest fan of "certain paths" in aviation, or life for that matter. I'll just leave it at that.
 
chrisreedrules said:
Sounds about right... The inside of our airplane looked like someone had taken us and shook us violently. The airplane wasn't controllable for about 10 seconds (which was basically 3 lifetimes in my minds eye and a whole lotta grey hairs on my chin).
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I think mountain turbulence cracks me up the most. "Why does the airplane feel like it's being shaken side to side???" :) Never saw that in a 99, but in a 172, up and down felt about "normal" or what I would expect, but it really feels like the thing is being shaken in all kinds of weird axises(axi, axisels?)
 
UAL747400 said:
It really is scary some of the people I've met that do properly dangerous things based entirely on getting away with it previously. Not just in aviation either. I'm guilty of it myself.
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Slap your own hand before someone else does.

I try to debrief every improperly managed threat (read: error) I make.
 
ChasenSFO said:
Agreed. But I can't imagine a 5,000 hour pilot who hasn't scared themselves at LEAST once. That's scary in itself, really.
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My Dad says (correctly, IMO) that once you get to 1000-1500 hours, you tend to be scared less often but the severity of each scare is worse.

Based on my experience, that's been true.

The assertion that the HMS Bounty accident started before the lines were ever cast off is also an interesting one, and one that I can generally agree with. Most of the scares (minor or otherwise) I've had really started at the gate/at the hangar/whatever with a normally harmless decision that you'll get away with 99.9% of the time.

Initial decision: "TAF says calm, ten, clear? Release fuel it is*!"

Later: "If only we had taken more fuel, we wouldn't have landed with (FOM minimum fuel) minus (__) pounds, and I wouldn't have had to return to (__) when the destination weather tanked." (This is how the conversation may have gone last night, had we left on time and not 10 minutes early, for our destination, which was forecast to be clear and then was very, very not at our time of arrival.)

* Release fuel is for suckers anyway.
 
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