The hiring boom

Turbine said:
Nope, I actually just mentioned that to someone today. Flight schools claiming "there has never been a better time to train". They claim that same statement year round, so I definitely understand what your saying.
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Indeed.

Understand, I think the future of this industry is bright. Very, very bright. So bright I need sunglasses to think about it.

I just have never bought the "massive pilot shortage" gambit, although I do think there will be mobility starting Real Soon Now.
 
Autothrust Blue said:
Indeed.

Understand, I think the future of this industry is bright. Very, very bright. So bright I need sunglasses to think about it.

I just have never bought the "massive pilot shortage" gambit, although I do think there will be mobility starting Real Soon Now.
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Agree with everything.
 
I am and always have been cautiously optimistic. In 2009 when a person (including myself) even mentioned the boom we were often labels as "noobs" even though I"ve been around since 2001. Now the attitude has changed to "we'll see," may of the signs of a boom are definitely there, but a lot of things can happen that would damper any growth. This includes another economic slowdown and/or 6.00 per gallon jet fuel (which is very possible also).

All that said, I think another boom is on the way... but I would rather see some consistent and steady hiring with reasonable minimums and maybe an improved and more respectable compensation package industry-wide than... "OMG we need pilots even if you only have 250 hours and you watched Top Gun twice" all so companies can hire more pliable employees willing to work at any price for multi turbine time. Anyone else feel me there?
 
There are several sources and "Industry Experts" who have much to gain by forecasting a hiring boom.

- Flight schools. Obviously there is a direct relationship between the perception a boom is on the way and sales.

- Demand for fuel, aircraft mx, fbo services and other GA vendors.

- The airlines. If you create the perception there are many jobs, you will have many job seekers. This has a very significant effect on the salary required to fill the position as you watch the job seekers bid the salary down.

- Kit Darby. What a cruel joke. This guy has been stuffing his pocket with money from airline hopefuls for decades selling out his fellow pilots. Might as well go see the Wizard of Oz.

This problem is not limited to aviation. Many private trade schools offer inflated job prospects to dig money from the would be in many careers. In fact the law school mills are even worse than aviation in ripping people off.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhjhHuMKqgs&sns=em
 
Douglas said:
If retirement is what is expected to cause future hiring, what caused the last hiring boom?

It seemed to come out of nowhere, but maybe I just wasn't paying attention.
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Most of the people who were hired were furloughed right after, so it looks like it was all just a big smoke screen of some sort. There does seem to be a lot of movement going on right now, but no one knows for sure how long that will last and whether it will be a boom or not. Anyone saying for certain there will or will not be a hiring boom doesn't know what they are talking about.
 
History will ultimately decide how much of a 'boom' that hiring has in the twenty-teens. Given the impending forced retirements of many baby-boomer pilots, additional staffing requirements due to new rest regulations and attrition for other reasons in various parts of the industry, it would seem a boom is possible.

Even so, the planned growth of the 121 carriers in the U.S. is occurring at the same time while CEOs are calling for reduction of supply and airlines are merging all over. Reducing redundant supply of seat-miles after a consolidation could just as easily cancel out long term staffing increases. Regionals and mainlines are pushing for more 70 to 100 seat airplanes. The reduction of airplanes with less than 70 seats could mean fewer turns and therefore less staffing.

IMHO, there will be an uptick in hiring, but it will be because of turnover in the pilot pool because of the previous generation retiring. It'll seem like a 'boom' but will actually just be the rising side of the wave that cycles through pilot hiring over the span of each decade.
 
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